The effect of longevity risks on the performance of stock market
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.14(1-1).2017.03
-
Article InfoVolume 14 2017, Issue #1 (cont.), pp. 173-180
- 1231 Views
-
319 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
In this study the author examines the effect of the speed of population aging on the financial markets in 11 OECD (The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries after controlling the proportion of labor population, the growth rate of real GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the rate of increasing productivity, inflation rate, and the rate of increasing scale of pension market. The author finds that the performance of stock market is affected by complex factors including increasing of average life expectancy, the growth rate of real GDP, the rate of increasing productivity, the inflation rate, the earning rate of stock market and the rate of increasing scale of pension market. Especially, the proportion of economically active people is the most significant factor to explain the stock market performance. Considering the decreasing proportion of economically active people in aging societies, the decrease of productivity and eventually the decrease of earnings from financial markets would be expected.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)G19, G23, J11
-
References10
-
Tables4
-
Figures5
-
- Fig. 1.Life expectancy at birth
- Fig. 2.Labor productivity
- Fig. 3.Real GDP (trillion US$ in 2010)
- Fig. 4.Stock market performance
- Fig 5.Pension fund asset (billion US$)
-
- Table 1. International aging rate comparison among developed countries
- Table 2.Descriptive statistics
- Table 3.Correlation
- Table 4.Regressionresults
-
- Arnott, R. D., & Chaves, D. B. (2012). Demographic Changes, Financial Markets, and the Economy. Financial Analysts Journal, 68(1), 23-46.
- Boersch-Supan, A. H., &Winter, J. K. (2001). Population Aging, Savings Behavior and Capital Markets (No. w8561). National Bureau of Economic Research.
- Coulombe, S., & Tremblay, J. F. (2009). Education, Productivity and Economic Growth: A Selective Review of The Evidence. International Productivity Monitor, 18(3).
- De-huang, L., & En-jun, X. (2013, July). Research on Influence of Human Capital on The Economy Growth Based on the Extended Solow Model. In Management Science and Engineering (ICMSE), 2013 International Conference on (pp. 1460-1465). IEEE.
- Feyrer, J. (2007). Demographics and productivity. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 89(1), 100-109.
- Hári, N., De Waegenaere, A., Melenberg, B., &Nijman, T. E. (2008). Longevity Risk in Portfolios of Pension Annuities. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 42(2), 505-519.
- Liu, Z., & Spiegel, M. M. (2011). Boomer Retirement: Headwinds for US Equity Markets? FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011, 26.
- Mitchell, O. S., Piggott, J., Sherris, M., & Yow, S. (2006). Financial Innovation for An Aging World (No. w12444). National Bureau of Economic Research.
- Poterba, J. M. (2001). Demographic Structure and Asset Returns. Review of Economics and Statistics, 83(4), 565-584.
- Solow, R. M. (1957). Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 312-320.