Return prediction in small capitalization companies on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.14(2-2).2017.03
-
Article InfoVolume 14 2017, Issue #2 (cont. 2), pp. 316-327
- Cited by
- 948 Views
-
252 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
This report analyzes return prediction in small capitalization companies on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange over the period from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2015. Well-established fundamental company characteristics and additional small capitalization specific characteristics were regressed against the returns of 104 small capitalization companies. The results show contrary predictability than what is seen in prior studies, which focused on larger companies. The results highlight the difference in the nature of returns earned by small caps and provide insight into unique predictive characteristics that can be used by investors and analysts of small capitalization companies.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)G11, G14
-
References38
-
Tables3
-
Figures0
-
- Table 1. Predictors
- Table 2. Regression output
- Table 3. Correlation test
-
- Auret, C. J., & Cline, R. (2011). Do the value, size and January effects exist on the JSE? Investment Analysts Journal, 40(74), 29-37.
- Auret, C. J., & Sinclaire, R. A. (2006). Book-to-market ratio and returns on the JSE. Investment Analysts Journal, 35(63), 31-38.
- Basiewicz, P. G., & Auret, C. J. (2010a). Feasibility of the Fama and French three factor model in explaining returns on the JSE. Investment Analysts Journal, 3523(71), 13-25.
- Basiewicz, P. G., & Auret, C. J. (2010b). Feasibility of the Fama and French three factor model in explaining returns on the JSE. Investment Analysts Journal, 39(71), 13-25.
- Bolton, J., & von Boetticher, S. T. (2015). Momentum Trading on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange after the Global Financial Crisis. Procedia Economics and Finance, 24(15), 83-92.
- Booth, G. G., Broussard, J., & Loistl, O. (1997). Earnings and stock returns: evidence from Germany. The European Accounting Review, 6(4), 589-603.
- Chan, K., Chan, L., Jegadeesh, N., & Lakonishok, J. (2001). Earnings quality and stock returns (NBER Working Paper Series No. 8308). Nber.Org. Champaign.
- Fama, E. F. (1998). Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance. Journal of Financial Economics, 49(3), 283-306.
- Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (2003). The Capital Asset Pricing Model: Theory and Evidence. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(3), 49-51.
- Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (2008). Dissecting anomalies. Journal of Finance, 63(4), 1653-1678.
- Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (2015). A five-factor asset pricing model. Journal of Financial Economics, 116(1), 1-22.
- Fama, E., & French, K. (1993). Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 33, 3-56.
- Gorman, L. (2003). Conditional performance, portfolio rebalancing, and momentum of small-cap mutual funds. Review of Financial Economics, 12(3), 287-300.
- Hammar, S. (2014). Value and small firm premiums in the South African market. Journal of Business Management, 45(4), 71-91.
- Harvey, C. R. (2011). Enterprise value/EBITDA ratio (EV/E).
- Hodnett, K., Hsieh, H. H., & Van Rensburg, P. (2012a). Nonlinearities in stock return prediction: Evidence from South Africa. Journal of Applied Business Research, 28(6), 1253-1274.
- Hodnett, K., Hsieh, H. H., & Van Rensburg, P. (2012b). Payoffs To Equity Investment Styles On The JSE Securities Exchange: The Case Of South African Equity Market. International Business & Economics Research Journal, 11(1), 19-32.
- Hoffman, A. J. (2012). Stock return anomalies : Evidence from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Investment Analysts Journal, 41(75), 21-41.
- Holthausen, R. W., & Larcker, D. F. (1992). The prediction of stock returns using financial statement information. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 15(2-3), 373-411.
- Hsieh, H. H. (2015). Empirical investigation of the value effect in the large and small cap segments of the JSE : evidence from the South African stock market. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 12(4), 16-22.
- Jegadeesh, N., & Subrahmanyam, A. (1993). Liquidity Effects of the Introduction of the S&P 500 Index Futures Contract on the Underlying Stocks. The Journal of Business, 66(2), 171-187.
- JSE Limited. (2013). Headline.
- Kruger, R., & Toerien, F. (2014). The Consistency of Equity Style Anomalies on the JSE during a Period of Market Crisis. The African Finance Journal, 16(1), 1-18.
- Malkiel, B. G., & Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient capital markets: a review of theory and empirical work. The Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417.
- McLachlan, K. (2016). Q1:16 – Small Cap Filter.
- Minjina, D. I. (2009). Relative Performance of Valuation Using Multiples. Empirical Evidence on the Bucharest Stock Exchange. The Review of Finance and Banking, 1(1), 35-53.
- Morningstar. (2015). Investing in Small, Mid and Large-Cap Stocks.
- Muller, C., & Ward, M. (2013). Style-based effects on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange: A graphical time-series approach. In¬vestment Analysts Journal, 42(77), 1-16.
- Page, D., Britten, J., & Auret, C. J. (2013). Momentum and liquidity on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies, 5(1), 56-73.
- Planting, S. (2013). Small caps – the sector to watch.
- South African Institute of Chartered Accountants. (2008). The JSE and SAICA unveil revised Headline Earnings formula.
- Strugnell, D., Gilbert, E., & Kruger, R. (2011). Beta, size and value effects on the JSE, 1994–2007. Investment Analysts Journal, 40(74), 1-17.
- Van Heerden, J. D. (2014). The Impact of Firm Specific Factors On The Cross Sectional Variation In Johannesburg Security Exchange Listed Equity Returns. University of Cape Town.
- Van Heerden, J. D., & Van Rensburg, P. (2015). The cross-section of Johannesburg Securities Exchange listed equity returns (1994-2011). Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32(4), 422-444.
- Van Rensburg, P. (2001). A Decomposition of Style-Based Risk on JSE. Investment Analysts Journal, 30(54), 45-60.
- Van Rensburg, P., & Robertson, M. (2003). Size, Price-to-Earnings and Beta on the JSE Securities Exchange. Investment Analysts Journal, 32(54), 7-16.
- Van Rensburg, P., & Robertson, M. (2003). The interaction between sectors, styles and JSE returns. Studies in Economics and Econometrics, 27(1), 75-93.
- Weisstein, E. W. (2016). Central Limit Theorem.