Do fossil fuel finance restrictions promote renewable energy? The moderating role of banking system depth
-
Received March 27, 2026;Accepted May 13, 2026;Published June 3, 2026
-
Author(s)Muslum MursalovLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4174-8093
,
Victoria KovalenkoLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2783-186X
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ee.17(2).2026.15
-
Article InfoVolume 17 2026, Issue #2, pp. 208-231
- TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯ
- 26 Views
-
5 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Type of the article: Research Article
Abstract
Renewable energy expansion is a cornerstone of environmental policy, yet empirical evidence on whether restricting international public finance for fossil fuels accelerates this transition remains scarce. This study assesses whether international public finance restrictions on fossil fuels promote renewable energy development across a panel of 128 countries, and how banking system depth moderates this policy effect. The analysis employs fixed-effects models with country-specific linear trends, validated through event-study, placebo, and first-difference checks, drawing on World Bank and Clean Energy Transition Partnership data. The results indicate that fossil fuel finance restrictions increase the share of renewable energy in total final energy consumption by 11.5-15.3 percentage points (p < 0.05), representing a relative increase of 40–53% compared with the sample mean of 28.9%. The first-difference estimator confirms that restrictions add nearly 1 percentage point to annual growth in the renewable energy share (β = 0.908, p = 0.013). The effect concentrates on non-hydro technologies: excluding hydropower, the estimated increase reaches 15.1 percentage points (p = 0.013), indicating that the policy primarily stimulates solar and wind deployment. Banking system depth significantly moderates these effects (p < 0.05): the policy impact is virtually zero where domestic credit is below 25% of GDP, but reaches 12.9 percentage points where credit exceeds 100% of GDP. This conditional pattern shows that fossil fuel finance restrictions deliver meaningful environmental gains only where the financial system can redirect capital toward renewable energy investment.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)Q42, Q48, G21, H81
-
References63
-
Tables16
-
Figures2
-
- Figure 1. Event study: Effect of fossil fuel finance restrictions on renewable electricity generation
- Figure 2. Marginal effect of fossil fuel finance restrictions by banking system development
-
- Table 1. Descriptive statistics
- Table 2. Event study coefficients − Parallel trends test
- Table 3. Renewable energy consumption (% of total final energy)
- Table 4. Renewable electricity generation (% of total)
- Table 5. Robustness checks
- Table 6. Subsample analysis and interaction effects
- Table A1. Countries included in the analytical sample
- Table A2. Variable definitions and sources
- Table A3. Treatment timing: Fossil fuel finance restriction adoption
- Table B1. Pairwise correlation matrix
- Table C1. Pre-treatment balance: Treated vs. control countries (2010–2018)
- Table D1. First-difference estimation: Renewable electricity (DV1) vs. renewable energy consumption (DV2)
- Table E1. Placebo tests: Shifting treatment dates backward
- Table F1. Leave-one-out sensitivity analysis (DV2: Renewable energy consumption)
- Table F2. Treated countries: Pre/post renewable energy shares and predicted effects
- Table F3. Predicted marginal effect of fossil fuel finance restrictions by country
-
- Aguirre, M., & Ibikunle, G. (2014). Determinants of renewable energy growth: A global sample analysis. Energy Policy, 69, 374-384.
- Aleknevičienė, V., Kazilionienė, A., & Bendoraitytė, A. (2025). Does the green bond premium exist in the secondary market? Evidence from Nordic countries. Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, 20(1), 327-355.
- Ameli, N., Kothari, S., & Grubb, M. (2021). Misplaced expectations from climate disclosure initiatives. Nature Climate Change, 11(11), 917-924.
- Avlogiaris, G., Farmaki, P., & Katarachia, A. (2023). State and entrepreneurship on the road to green growth in a post lignite era: Friends or foes? European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, 15(2), 90-96.
- Baghirzade, M., & Kosormyhin, T. (2025). Investigation of impact of oil, gold and natural gas prices on clean energy stock prices. Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks, 9(3), 101-119.
- Bhandary, R. R., Gallagher, K. S., & Zhang, F. (2021). Climate finance policy in practice: A review of the evidence. Climate Policy, 21(4), 529-545.
- Budhathoki, P. B., Karki, M., Lama, P. B., & Chataut, M. K. (2025). Financial access and its socioeconomic dilemmas: Assessing the impact on bank performance. SocioEconomic Challenges, 9(1), 58-69.
- Burrell, D. N., Wansi, T., Morin, S. L., Rahim, E., Tessema, D. B., Alemu, B. A., Harris, N., & Conley, L. (2025). Harnessing behavioral economics, green promotions, and financial incentives as catalysts for sustainable practices. Green Transition and Sustainable Development, 1(1), 1-16.
- Callaway, B., & Sant’Anna, P. H. C. (2021). Difference-in-differences with multiple time periods. Journal of Econometrics, 225(2), 200-230.
- Clean Energy Transition Partnership (CETP). (2021). Statement on international public support for the clean energy transition. Glasgow, United Kingdom: COP26.
- Dilanchiev, A., Urbański, M., Ahmed, D., & Valiyev, O. (2024). Balancing economic growth and environmental management: The role of CO2 efficiency and renewable energy in the EU. Polish Journal of Management Studies, 30(1), 66-81.
- Fatur Šikić, T., Hodžić, S., & Čeh Časni, A. (2025). Do financial inclusion, regulatory quality and government effectiveness matter for green development? Evidence from new EU countries. Engineering Economics, 36(3), 334-346.
- Filipava, L., & Murshudli, F. (2023). The development of the global green finance market: The role of banks and non-banking institutional investors. In N. Naifar & A. Elsayed (Eds.), Green Finance Instruments, FinTech, and Investment Strategies (pp. 27-46). Springer.
- Gondauri, D., & Chedia, N. (2025). Integrated application of Navier–Stokes, Ricci Flow, and EVA frameworks for modelling systemic risks, shock scenarios, and resilience to socioeconomic challenges: The case of critical railway corridors. SocioEconomic Challenges, 9(4), 12-24.
- Goodman-Bacon, A. (2021). Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing. Journal of Econometrics, 225(2), 254-277.
- Halynskyi, D., & Telizhenko, O. (2024). Fair business leadership: Is protecting minority investors important to the development of start-ups in clean and digital energy? Business Ethics and Leadership, 8(4), 57-68.
- Havrylenko, O., & Myroshnychenko, I. (2025). Does renewable energy enhance energy security? Evidence from a Granger causality analysis of countries in the context of geopolitical risks and socioeconomic challenges. SocioEconomic Challenges, 9(2), 207-219.
- IEA. (2025). Global energy review 2025. International Energy Agency.
- Johnstone, N., Haščič, I., & Popp, D. (2010). Renewable energy policies and technological innovation: Evidence based on patent counts. Environmental and Resource Economics, 45(1), 133-155.
- Jones, N., O’Manique, C., McGibbon, A., & DeAngelis, K. (2024). Out with the old, slow with the new: Countries are underdelivering on the fossil fuel to clean energy finance pledge. International Institute for Sustainable Development.
- Kovalenko, V., & Serhieieva, O. (2025). Zelenyi bankinh: Suchasna traiektoriia staloho rozvytku natsionalnoi ekonomiky [Green banking: The modern trajectory of sustainable development of the national economy]. Problems and Prospects of Economics and Management, 1(41), 287-300. (In Ukrainian).
- Kurbatova, T., Sotnyk, I., Kubatko, O., Prokopenko, O., Pysmenna, U., & Kozmenko, Y. (2025). Convergence and divergence patterns in Ukraine’s household solar energy development: Policy implications. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 23(4), 326-340.
- Kuzior, A., Kovalenko, Y., Tiutiunyk, I., & Hrytsenko, L. (2025). Assessment of the energy security of EU countries in light of the expansion of renewable energy sources. Energies, 18(8), Article 2126.
- Kuzior, A., Samusevych, Y., Lyeonov, S., Krawczyk, D., & Grytsyshen, D. (2023a). Applying energy taxes to promote a clean, sustainable and secure energy system: Finding the preferable approaches. Energies, 16(10), Article 4203.
- Kuzior, A., Vakulenko, I., Kolosok, S., Saher, L., & Lyeonov, S. (2023b). Managing the EU energy crisis and greenhouse gas emissions: Seasonal ARIMA forecast. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 21(2), 383-399.
- Lyeonov, S., & Moroz, A. (2025). Financial instruments for renewable energy incentives: A cluster-based analysis of feed-in tariffs and power purchase agreements. Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks, 9(1), 123-139.
- Lyeonov, S., Artyukhov, A., Bokenchina, L., Sitenko, D., Yehorova, Y., Zhytar, M., & Moroz, A. (2025a). The role of feed-in tariffs in encouraging insurance companies to invest in renewables. Insurance Markets and Companies, 16(1), 115-130.
- Lyeonov, S., Kulawiecka, E., Krawczyk, D., & Oláh, J. (2025b). Decarbonisation and informality: Empirical evidence on the shadow economy response to climate policy mix. Economics & Sociology, 18(3), 274-295.
- Lyeonov, S., Mielczarek, L., Krawczyk, D., & Popp, J. (2025c). The role of government AI readiness in shaping renewable electricity capacity and output. Human Technology, 21(3), 668-693.
- Lyeonov, S., Moroz, A., Wenerska, B., & Tangl, A. (2025d). The impact of feed-in tariffs and power purchase agreements on public investments in renewable energy. Journal of International Studies, 18(3), 179-218.
- Lyeonov, S., Okhrimenko, O., Artyukhov, A., Saiensus, M., Myroshnychenko, I., Yehorova, Y., & Havrylenko, O. (2025e). Does fiscal decentralization foster renewable electricity generation? A panel data study of OECD countries. Public and Municipal Finance, 14(2), 130-145.
- Lyeonov, S., Vakulenko, I., Avetikyan, V., & Levchenko, K. (2025f). Renewable energy investments: Exploring the financial landscape through a bibliometric analysis. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 22(4), 357-379.
- Mammadov, Z., & Murshudli, F. (2023). The effect of international green banking practices on environmental sustainability: An empirical study. Green Economics, 1(1), 46-61.
- Mazzucato, M., & Semieniuk, G. (2018). Financing renewable energy: Who is financing what and why it matters. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 127, 8-22.
- Megbowon, E. T., & Zerihun, M. F. (2025). Government health expenditure gap analysis: A study on the commitment to international agreement and the role of economic and institutional factors. Health Economics and Management Review, 6(1), 96-110.
- Mukhtarov, S., Aliyev, J., Borowski, P. F., & Disli, M. (2023). Institutional quality and renewable energy transition: Empirical evidence from Poland. Journal of International Studies, 16(3), 208-218.
- Mursalov, M. (2025). Regulation of banking activities is an important tool for stimulating green investments: Case by selected upper middle-income countries. Financial and Credit Activity: Problems of Theory and Practice, 5(64), 11-24.
- Murshudli, F. F. (2023) Green banking for sustainable development. Foresight and STI Governance, 17(2), 82-94.
- Nkwaira, C., & Van Der Poll, H. M. (2024). Does climate news sway investors away from large financiers of fossil fuel projects? Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 21(1), 185-197.
- Noor, A. S., Alam, S., Nohong, M., & Sobarsyah, M. (2024). Investigating the impact of corporate governance and investment decisions on financial performance and firm value in insurance and banking sectors. Insurance Markets and Companies, 15(2), 122-132.
- OECD. (2025). OECD inventory of support measures for fossil fuels 2025: Policy trends. OECD Publishing.
- Oil Change International. (2023). Promise breakers: Assessing the Impact of Compliance with the Glasgow Statement Commitment to End International Public Finance for Fossil Fuels. Oil Change International.
- Okunevičiūtė Neverauskienė, L., Dirma, V., Danilevičienė, I., Gudelytė-Žilinskienė, L., & Tvaronavičienė, M. (2025). How investments into renewable sources affect economic development: A case of the EU countries. Journal of International Studies, 18(4).
- Popescu, G. H., Fortea, C., Nica, E., Antohi, V. M., Andrei, J. V., & Szpilko, D. (2025). Investments in the green transition and their impact on economic growth and competitiveness in the European Union. Oeconomia Copernicana, 16(4), 1665-1725.
- Prokopenko, O., Järvis, M., Shahnazaryan, N., Chechel, A., Sapiński, A., & Batsenko, L. (2025). Bridging risk ethics and sustainability: A data-driven study of ethical leadership practices in risky business environments. Business Ethics and Leadership, 9(2), 211-224.
- Raboshuk, A., Serhiienko, R., Myroshnychenko, I., Kobylnik, D., Moroz, A., & Lyeonov, S. (2025). Public and fiscal policy instruments for supporting renewable electricity development: Evidence from a cross-country study. Public and Municipal Finance, 14(3), 74-92.
- Semieniuk, G., Holden, P. B., Mercure, J.-F., Salas, P., Pollitt, H., Jobson, K., Vercoulen, P., Chewpreecha, U., Edwards, N. R., & Viñuales, J. E. (2022). Stranded fossil-fuel assets translate to major losses for investors in advanced economies. Nature Climate Change, 12(6), 532-538.
- Sitnicka, S., Xinyang, L., Serhiienko, R., & Babaiev, D. (2025). Determinants affecting bank profitability: A broad and comparative analysis across regions and income groups. Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks, 9(3), 120-158.
- Sovacool, B. K. (2017). Reviewing, reforming, and rethinking global energy subsidies: Towards a political economy research agenda. Ecological Economics, 135, 150-163.
- Streimikiene, D., Mikalauskas, I., Lėckienė, V., Pisula, T., & Mikalauskiene, A. (2024). The role of sustainable finance in the context of the European Green Course. Economics and Sociology, 17(2), 54-79.
- Tessema, D. B. (2025). Pillars of organizational transformation and sustainability: Leadership, learning, culture, and knowledge management as key success factors in environmental public health. Health Economics and Management Review, 6(1), 1-21.
- Triarchi, E., Kolias, G., & Kypriotelis, E. (2023). Exploring the role of institutional governance in climate action in the Western Balkans economies. European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, 15(2), 97-117.
- Trinh, L. D. (2025). Renewable energy and sustainable development: Evidence from lower middle-income countries. Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, 20(3), 905-926.
- Vasylieva, T., Derkacz, A., Popp, J., & Horsch, A. (2025). From energy dependency to energy security: How the war in Ukraine accelerated renewable deployment in Europe. Economics & Sociology, 18(3), 229-253.
- Wojciechowski, W., Niewiadomski, A., & Bilan, Y. (2025). Ecological and secure electricity microgrids – Monitoring and forecasting challenges. Human Technology, 21(3), 469-473.
- World Bank. (n.d.a). World Development Indicators [Database]. The World Bank.
- World Bank. (n.d.b). Worldwide Governance Indicators [Database]. The World Bank.
- World Bank. (2021). World Bank country and lending groups [Database]. The World Bank.
- Yefimenko, A., Boronos, V., Serpeninova, Y., & Koldovskyi, A. (2025). Innovative and technological determinants of corruption reduction: How do knowledge and technology contribute to public integrity and transparency? Knowledge Economy and Lifelong Learning, 1(1), 21-34.
- Zábojník, S., & Branch, J. D. (2025). EU decarbonization and industrial export competitiveness in a small open economy: A surprising resilience. Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, 20(4), 1339-1385.
- Zapotichna, R. (2023). Green trend in international banking business: Opportunities for Ukraine. Economy of Ukraine, 66(3), 58-72.
- Zheng, M., Feng, G.-F., & Chang, C.-P. (2023). Is green finance capable of promoting renewable energy technology? Empirical investigation for 64 economies worldwide. Oeconomia Copernicana, 14(2), 483-510.
- Živković, L., & Štrbac, D. (2025). Business leadership in the adoption of eco-innovation in manufacturing: Evidence from firm-level microdata. Business Ethics and Leadership, 9(4), 32-44.
-
-
Conceptualization
Muslum Mursalov, Victoria Kovalenko
-
Data curation
Muslum Mursalov
-
Funding acquisition
Muslum Mursalov, Victoria Kovalenko
-
Investigation
Muslum Mursalov, Victoria Kovalenko
-
Methodology
Muslum Mursalov, Victoria Kovalenko
-
Project administration
Muslum Mursalov, Victoria Kovalenko
-
Resources
Muslum Mursalov, Victoria Kovalenko
-
Supervision
Muslum Mursalov, Victoria Kovalenko
-
Writing – original draft
Muslum Mursalov, Victoria Kovalenko
-
Writing – review & editing
Muslum Mursalov, Victoria Kovalenko
-
Formal Analysis
Victoria Kovalenko
-
Software
Victoria Kovalenko
-
Validation
Victoria Kovalenko
-
Visualization
Victoria Kovalenko
-
Conceptualization
-
Evaluating the effects of IFRS 9 on Jordanian banks’ credit and financial metrics
Banks and Bank Systems Volume 19, 2024 Issue #4 pp. 70-83 Views: 6565 Downloads: 621 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯAdopting International Financial Reporting 9 is critically relevant as it significantly transforms accounting practices, particularly in credit risk management, for banks in Jordan. The primary purpose of this study is to examine the impact of implementing International Financial Reporting 9 on the financial performance and credit risk management practices of Jordanian banks. A quantitative analysis was conducted using the Difference-in-Differences approach and Fixed Effects models on data from 19 banks operating between 2012 and 2022.
The results indicate that the adoption of International Financial Reporting 9 led to a substantial increase in loan loss provisions, with a mean increase of 0.25 (t-value = 18.00). This increase in loan loss provisions negatively affected profitability metrics such as Return on Assets and Return on Equity, which showed mean decreases of 0.0857 (t-value = 4.22) post-implementation. Despite the negative impact on profitability, the findings also highlight improvements in financial transparency and stability due to more accurate credit risk assessment.
While the adoption of International Financial Reporting 9 imposes operational and financial challenges, it enhances the robustness and clarity of financial reporting in Jordanian banks. -
Exploring the environmental Kuznets curve for CO2 and SO2 for Southeast Asia in the 21st century context
Environmental Economics Volume 9, 2018 Issue #1 pp. 7-21 Views: 3958 Downloads: 801 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯThis study aims to investigate the relationships between economic development and environmental degradation regarding the emissions of CO2 and SO2 in Southeast Asia (SEA). The pooling data consist of 10 countries, Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, in the period 2003-2012. Furthermore, income elasticity of CO2 and SO2 emissions is computed for each country to observe the sensitivity of environmental degradation through the emissions of CO2 and SO2 brought by economic development.
The results indicate that CO2 displays an inverted U-shape pattern, whereas SO2 has decreased at an increasing rate since 2003. It is expected that SO2 will increase as the SEA economies further develop. The turning points for both CO2 and SO2, indicate that the current SEA income level has not reached the turning point. The income elasticities show that income elasticities for CO2 are positive for all 10 countries. Both Singapore and Malaysia are classified as countries with high income. However, Singapore, with 0.64%, has the highest income elasticity, and Malaysia, with 0.15%, has the second lowest. There is no indication that wealthy countries have a significant impact on CO2 through economic development. Income elasticities for SO2 of each country are all negative. This suggests that SO2 is an inferior good. Brunei, with 8.41%, has the most sensitivity toward change in SO2 emissions, whereas Myanmar, with only 0.58%, is the least sensitive to SO2 emissions. -
A financial performance-based assessment of SMEs’ competitiveness – an analysis of Hungarian and US small businesses
Problems and Perspectives in Management Volume 18, 2020 Issue #3 pp. 452-464 Views: 3600 Downloads: 2162 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯThe study aims to identify the financial performance measures used as a proxy of the firm-level competitiveness dimensions of small and medium-sized enterprises and their competitiveness. By investigating the factors that affect competitiveness in general, those areas will be introduced, related to an identified competitiveness dimension. Financial and non-financial performance indicators will assess these areas. The paper considers competitiveness as an outcome variable, suggests a relationship between financial performance and the identified areas, and searches for the financial performance measures drivers.
A panel data model was tested on Hungarian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and US SMEs. The collected data cover the period between 2013 and 2017. As a result of the applied panel regression, those variables were successfully identified that drive and could predict financial performance measures related to competitiveness. The research found a significant difference between the two-sample dataset results, which differences can be connected to country, industry, and, in general, to economic development characteristics.
The results provide decision-making support and hint about the managerial tools and techniques aiming to control the firm characteristics, performance, and, eventually, firm-level competitiveness. Based on the results, further research can be dedicated to the development characteristics of firm-level competitiveness and the analysis of the relationship between the competitiveness dimensions and competitiveness itself.Acknowledgment
The research was financed by the Higher Education Institutional Excellence Programme of the Ministry for Innovation and Technology in Hungary, within the framework of the 4th thematic programme „Enhancing the Role of Domestic Companies in the Reindustrialization of Hungary” of the University of Pécs.

