Applying the LASSO method to predict the impact of tariff reductions on customs revenues in Vietnam
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Received June 12, 2020;Accepted August 17, 2020;Published December 1, 2020
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DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ed.19(3).2020.03
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Article InfoVolume 19 2020, Issue #3, pp. 19-31
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The study assesses the impact of tariff reductions on fluctuations in customs revenues in Vietnam. The collection of research data was based on the official sources, namely the Government’s Web Portal and the World Bank’s website, and took place between 2002 and 2017. This paper uses the LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) linear regression model to estimate and predict the relationship of data series, thereby drawing a regression equation to consider the impact of various factors on customs revenues. The results have proven that tariff reductions have no negative impact on customs revenues. When tariffs are reduced, import turnover increases, the level of compliance with tax laws by import-export enterprises increases, and smuggling and trade fraud decrease. Based on these conclusions, the paper proposes several policies aimed at ensuring future customs revenues in Vietnam. As follows from the findings provided below, in order to ensure customs revenues, the Vietnamese Government should introduce appropriate policies to improve the efficiency of customs management in Vietnam; envisage accurate planning and reasonable investment for the customs office in terms of facilities and human resources; establish reasonable non-tariff barriers to prevent fraud and abuse causing losses in customs revenues.
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JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)C22, F14, F15, H72, O24
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References19
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Tables3
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Figures1
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- Figure 1. Vietnam customs revenue and average tariffs from 2002 to 2017
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- Table 1. Descriptive statistics
- Table 2. Optimal lambda definition
- Table 3. Regression coefficients by the LASSO method
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Supply chain disruptions in the context of early stages of the global COVID-19 outbreak
Problems and Perspectives in Management Volume 18, 2020 Issue #2 pp. 490-500 Views: 2872 Downloads: 547 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯThe world finds itself facing unprecedented conditions as the global pandemic of the COVID-19 virus has led to fundamental changes in the global supply chains. This paper aims to assess the initial response undertaken by Central European companies in the early stages of the outbreak. The survey was conducted as a research method to collect data from a large number of companies. Since it takes time to assess long-term effects of the pandemic and related measures, various changes in supply chains are examined as the early results of the COVID-19 crisis and measures implemented by companies. The study examines how different economy sectors were changed due to this situation. The changes in operating volumes were identified as the most commonly used measures to accommodate new market developments. However, developing the new supply chain partnership was the most successful measure. This measure correlates with an increase in revenues and an increase in the number of customers. In some cases, disruptions in supply chains had positive effects on revenues as a reaction to the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak. Cross-country examinations found that all Polish companies implemented at least one new measure to tackle this crisis. Nearly 20% of Slovak companies and nearly 30% of Czech companies made no changes in their operations during the early stages of the crisis. However, overall, the supply chains in Central European countries turned out to be quite resilient, since most companies managed to survive the supply chain disruptions and in some cases even show signs of overcoming them completely.
Acknowledgement
This contribution was supported by the project No. 1/0757/18, “Consumer behavior in buying goods of daily consumption with an emphasis placed different contents of goods offered on markets of selected EU countries”. -
Public finance management system in modern conditions
Alla Chornovol , Julia Tabenska , Tetiana Tomniuk , Liudmyla Prostebi doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.17(4).2020.34Investment Management and Financial Innovations Volume 17, 2020 Issue #4 pp. 402-410 Views: 1192 Downloads: 815 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯThe public finance management system is an important lever for equalizing financial and budgetary disproportions in the context of institutional changes. The paper aims to substantiate the directions of development of the public financial management system. Economic and statistical methods and correlation-regression analysis methods are used to determine the relationship between the GDP deflator and the share of revenues, expenditures, the general government budget deficit, and public debt in GDP, assessing the features of the public financial management system in Ukraine and EU countries. This study reveals that one of the main restraining factors in the public finance system development is a significant level of uncertainty in economic processes, which intensifies macroeconomic fluctuations, significant indicators of the share of public debt and budget deficit of the state administration sector pose risks to financial and economic stability; their potential negative impact on socio-economic processes is much more destructive than the pro-cyclical nature of fiscal policy. From this point of view, the public finance management system should be directed at optimizing financial and budgetary tools to prevent the growth of public debt and budget deficit in gross domestic product, which determines the importance of substantiating further development directions of the public financial management system. It is concluded that the mechanism of public financial management in recent years is quite rigid and restrictive, in the context of institutional change expands the tools of public financial management and increases its impact on socio-economic processes.
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China’s trade in climate smart goods: an analysis of trends and trading patterns
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