Sergiy Frolov

International trade is a significant factor in economic development and meeting global standards is essential for economic growth of any country. However, increase in exports and imports can have both negative and positive effects. The purpose of the article is to establish impact of regional economic and social development level on international trade and distinguish influential factors. Research is conducted using economic indicators in Ukraine, and Sumy region in particular. Factors are divided into four groups and their impact is assessed through correlation and causal analyses of 48 indicators resulting in construction of VAR model. Modeling resulted in obtaining exports equation in Sumy region and confirmed that shocks in standard deviation of economic indicators (world prices of oil “Brent” and corn, official hryvnia exchange rate to the US dollar, interest rate on deposits, etc.) affect exports and imports volumes. Reliability of calculations is confirmed by the comparison of graphs that represent calculated and actual data for both exports and imports. Approach used in the research will allow identifying possible risks and dangers to international trade in connection to economic and social factors in region, thus, allowing flexible management and decision implementation at a regional level.

Keywords: international trade, region, economic and social factors, VAR model.
JEL Classification: B17, F5

The problems of formation of small business in Ukraine are caused by insufficient financial provision, ineffective mechanism of taxation and unsustainable state regulatory policies. The aim of the paper is analyze financial provision of small businesses and substantiation of its improvement scenarios with the use of foresight instruments. The paper evaluates the criteria of financial provision of small businesses. It offers the organizational mechanism of financial provision of small business. It also assesses the system of relations “state-small businesses” in the formation of financial provision of companies and identifies the main obstacles for the realization of small business potential. The use of foresight technologies in building scenarios for the formation of financial provision of small businesses is proposed. Stages and methods of systemic foresight are considered. The conclusion is made that financial provision of small business in Ukraine should be focused not only on changes in the legislation, but also on the improvement of state support of small businesses and expansion of the relationship “state-small businesses”.

Information technology is characterized by an increasing pace of development, a high level of innovation and an increasing share in the GDP of most countries. Similar tendencies are inherent in Ukraine. But it should be noted that the economic crisis in the country began in 2014 and the historical conditions of development cause a number of problems that slow down development and create barriers for the integration of the Ukrainian IT market with the world market. The article analyzes the current situation of information technology in Ukraine as the leading innovative industry and identifies the main system problems, as well as industry trends, and suggests solutions to enhance the international competitiveness of the country. Forecasts were created using extrapolation polynomial trendline construction models and by the construction of an artificial neural network. Based on actual and predicted values of the IT market volumes, the authors estimated the level of its future development using taxonomic analysis. The results enable interested parties to determine the risks and increase the effectiveness of management decisions in IT field.