Oksana Savytska

International trade is a significant factor in economic development and meeting global standards is essential for economic growth of any country. However, increase in exports and imports can have both negative and positive effects. The purpose of the article is to establish impact of regional economic and social development level on international trade and distinguish influential factors. Research is conducted using economic indicators in Ukraine, and Sumy region in particular. Factors are divided into four groups and their impact is assessed through correlation and causal analyses of 48 indicators resulting in construction of VAR model. Modeling resulted in obtaining exports equation in Sumy region and confirmed that shocks in standard deviation of economic indicators (world prices of oil “Brent” and corn, official hryvnia exchange rate to the US dollar, interest rate on deposits, etc.) affect exports and imports volumes. Reliability of calculations is confirmed by the comparison of graphs that represent calculated and actual data for both exports and imports. Approach used in the research will allow identifying possible risks and dangers to international trade in connection to economic and social factors in region, thus, allowing flexible management and decision implementation at a regional level.

Keywords: international trade, region, economic and social factors, VAR model.
JEL Classification: B17, F5