Natalya Ivanyuta

Managing and evaluating the probability of bankruptcy of Ukrainian enterprises is one of the most complex and relevant problems of the economy and management. In the context of Ukraine’s integration into the international space, there is an arising issue of assessing the bankruptcy of Ukrainian enterprises that meets international financial standards and allows administering this process. A qualitative assessment of the bankruptcy of an enterprise is possible only using artificial intelligence methods – the fuzzy sets method, which allows including qualitative and quantitative indicators to the model for assessing bankruptcy of enterprises in Ukraine. The aim of the article is to improve the existing method for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of Ukrainian enterprises on the basis of the fuzzy sets method, which will include indicators of international financial reporting and allow more efficient administration and management of this process. The subject of the research is the process of formalizing the method of the enterprise bankruptcy assessment in accordance with the indicators of International Financial Reporting Standards. The study offers a mechanism for a comprehensive assessment of the probability of bankruptcy of Ukrainian enterprises with the use of the methods of fuzzy sets, which is based on international financial indicators: current ratio, payable turnover ratio, equity turnover ratio, return on assets, equity-to-debt ratio. The mechanism allows quickly managing bankruptcy conditions. In order to administer the economic activity of the bankrupt enterprises, based on the theory of a fuzzy sets, a system of enterprises management takes into account the international financial reporting.

The cryptocurrency market is not regulated, people and companies wishing to invest in cryptocurrency do not have the same protection as when investing in other assets. In the absence of information and regulatory laws, investors should decide if cryptocurrencies make sense for their financial goals and what kind of investment strategy to choose not to go bankrupt. The aim of the study is to determine the probability of “tail events” and to assess in this way the probability of bankruptcy when investing in cryptocurrency using the Monte Carlo method. The analysis is carried out on the period from September 1, 2014 up to July 1, 2022. Despite the fact that today there are more than 10,000 types of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin was chosen to assess the probability of bankruptcy. The reason is that Bitcoin is the world’s first decentralized cryptocurrency and its data is stored in a long-term history, which allows testing a long-term investment strategy. Besides, Bitcoin has not gone through a period of persistent inflation that makes the result of testing a short-term investment strategy more reliable. To date, there are around 25 million Bitcoin holders, representing 42.2% of the crypto market. Almost all cryptocurrencies have been proven to follow Bitcoin. The probability of bankruptcy for a short-term cryptocurrency investment strategy is about 17%-23%. For a long-term cryptocurrency investment strategy, the probability of bankruptcy fluctuates from 13% to 16%. Contrary to popular belief, investors looking to avoid bankruptcy should prefer a long-term strategy. The best way for cryptocurrency investors to protect themselves from bankruptcy is to alternate long and short investment periods.