The study of bubbles in bitcoin behavior

The purpose of this article is to analyze the effect that halving has on the fair market value of bitcoins. The main hypothesis of the study is that the decline in the cost of miners’ remuneration for mining is a significant factor that affects the price of cryptocurrencies. The article examines the factors that regulate the issuing process. The significance of a limited supply of bitcoin is detailed in the article, as well as the mechanism for the implementation of the issue of new bitcoins. The study compares the historical inflation data of the US dollar and the projected data on the inflation of bitcoin. The article analyzes the main technical element of cryptocurrency – halving – when the miner’s reward is halved. This analysis includes the mathematical methods of statistical data processing. Research results show that reducing remuneration by half every four years leads to an increased market value of the cryptocurrency. This relationship is clearly illustrated by the Kendall rank correlation method. The results of the study can have a significant impact on the fundamental assessment of bitcoin and can also enable investors to assess any of the existing and operating cryptocurrencies according to this method.

The emergence of Bitcoin in 2009 has received considerable attention surrounding the validity of cryptocurrencies as a viable and, in some jurisdictions, a legal currency alternative. Despite widespread concern that these cryptocurrencies are fostering the environment within which a substantial bubble can occur, it is important to analyze whether these new assets are behaving similarly to major international currencies. This paper investigates the effects of international monetary policy changes on bitcoin returns using a GARCH (1.1) estimation model. The results indicate that monetary policy decisions based on interest rates taken by the Federal Open Market Committee in the United States significantly impact upon bitcoin returns. After controlling for international effects, we find significant evidence of volatility effects driven by United States, European Union, United Kingdom and Japanese quantitative easing announcements. These results show that, despite its nature and ideals, bitcoin seems to be subject to the same economic factors as traditional fiat currencies, and is not entirely unaffected by government policies. This result has implications for investors using bitcoin as a hedging or diversification tool. In addition, we contribute to the existing debate regarding the classification of bitcoin as an asset class, by illustrating that bitcoin volatility exhibits various reactions that bear resemblance to both currency pairs and store-of-value assets.

The analysis of the financial technologies introduction has proved that their application over-complicates the institutional structure of the global financial system. As a result, usual functional relationships cease to operate, new institutes and interdependencies appear, and systemic risks increase. In this context, the system instability increases, resulting in a transition to a new institutional status. The analysis of the financial technologies impact on the stability of financial system shows that the lack of institutional support for new financial technologies is the most important catalyst for the financial industry destabilization and the formation of financial bubbles in various market segments.
The ways to reduce the negative impact of financial technologies on the financial system stability (such as development of international prudential standards; revision of the licensing regime for financial companies; “regulatory sandboxes”, which test new technologies, business models and algorithms underlying the Fintech innovations; legal regulation of ownership of digital tokens; and clear definition of the blockchain technology in various areas of life, etc.) have been proposed.