The relationship between bank lending and economic factors in the regions of Kazakhstan

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Understanding the impact of economic factors on bank lending is crucial in Kazakhstan’s modern economy, characterized by volatile inflation and fluctuations in real wages. This paper aims to investigate the link between bank lending and economic factors such as inflation, real wages, and consumer expenditure in a regional context. Data from the Bureau of National Statistics and the National Bank, covering the period from 2012 to 2022, were used to uncover how economic factors influence bank lending. For the analysis, various economic indicators were integrated through normalization and averaging. Analysis reveals significant regional disparities in real wages and consumer expenditures, which impact the demand for bank credit. The results of the correlation matrix showed that both real wages (P-value < 0.001) and inflation (P-value < 0.001) significantly impact bank lending, with an R² value of 0.998, indicating that the model explains 99.8% of the variation in bank lending. The regression analysis highlights that regions with higher real wages, such as Astana, Almaty, and Atyrau, provide the most favorable conditions for banking sector growth, demonstrated by a strong relationship between wages and bank lending. In contrast, regions with lower wage levels, such as Turkestan and Zhambyl, show a significantly weaker connection (around 0.65), reflecting their lower attractiveness for banking investment and emphasizing the need for policies to address social inequality. The Durbin-Watson test confirmed no autocorrelation in residuals (DW = 1.89), although heteroscedasticity was detected, suggesting the need for further model adjustments. The study emphasizes the importance of developing economic policies that can balance regional development and improve financial stability.

Acknowledgments
This research has been funded by the Science Committee of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan (Grant “Development of mechanisms for reducing social inequality and improving the welfare of the population of Kazakhstan” AP19174744).

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    • Figure 1. Stages of research
    • Figure 2. Average inflation rate for 2012–2022
    • Figure 3. Inflation by region 2012–2022
    • Figure 4. Nominal and real wages for 2012–2022
    • Figure 5. Real wages by region for 2012–2022
    • Figure 6. Average consumer expenditures used for consumption for 2012–2022
    • Figure 7. Average consumer expenditures used for consumption by region for 2012–2022
    • Figure 8. Residuals
    • Table 1. Correlation matrix
    • Table 2. Model coefficients
    • Table 3. Durbin-Watson test for autocorrelation
    • Conceptualization
      Assel Bekbossinova, Laszlo Vasa
    • Formal Analysis
      Assel Bekbossinova, Laszlo Vasa
    • Investigation
      Assel Bekbossinova, Laszlo Vasa
    • Methodology
      Assel Bekbossinova, Laszlo Vasa, Elvira Nurekenova
    • Project administration
      Assel Bekbossinova, Laszlo Vasa
    • Resources
      Assel Bekbossinova
    • Validation
      Assel Bekbossinova, Elvira Nurekenova
    • Visualization
      Assel Bekbossinova, Laszlo Vasa
    • Writing – original draft
      Assel Bekbossinova, Laszlo Vasa, Elvira Nurekenova
    • Writing – review & editing
      Assel Bekbossinova, Laszlo Vasa, Elvira Nurekenova
    • Data curation
      Laszlo Vasa, Elvira Nurekenova
    • Funding acquisition
      Laszlo Vasa, Elvira Nurekenova
    • Software
      Laszlo Vasa, Elvira Nurekenova
    • Supervision
      Laszlo Vasa, Elvira Nurekenova