The influence of U.S. equity returns on Asian-Pacific equity markets
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.16(4).2019.05
-
Article InfoVolume 16 2019, Issue #4, pp. 46-60
- Cited by
- 1011 Views
-
281 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
This paper examines monthly and daily returns in eleven Asian-Pacific equity markets and the U.S. market, showing that the Asian-Pacific markets systematically follow the returns in the U.S. market (S&P 500 index). For investment managers, the important findings include the fact that each Asian-Pacific market moves differently in response to U.S. market changes over a given time period and the response of most of these markets to changes in the U.S. market is not stable over time. Therefore, in their attempt to diversify a portfolio using individual Asian-Pacific country equities, past correlations and covariances are not necessarily a good predictor of future values, especially for the less developed countries. On average, more developed markets react more strongly to U.S. market changes than do the less developed markets. All markets exhibit asymmetries relative to the U.S. market, where reactions are stronger following down-days than following up-days. Finally, the tests suggest that the Asian-Pacific markets have little or no influence on U.S. market returns.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)G11, G15, F21
-
References43
-
Tables5
-
Figures0
-
- Table 1. Characteristics of markets and market indexes
- Table 2. Beta estimates for regressing the foreign index monthly returns (based on month-beg. prices) on the S&P 500 index monthly returns (based on month-end prices) [e.g., Nikkei 225 = f(S&P 500)] using all S&P 500 monthly returns*
- Table 3. Regression coefficients (or betas) for regressing the foreign index daily returns on the S&P 500 index [e.g., Nikkei 225t+1 = f(S&P 500t)] using S&P 500 daily returns of +/–1% or higher
- Table 4. Regression coefficients (or betas) for regressing the S&P 500 index daily returns on the foreign index daily returns [e.g., S&P 500t = f(Nikkei 225t)]
- Table 5. Regression coefficients for regressing the foreign index on the S&P 500 index [e.g., Nikkei 225t+1 = f(S&P 500t)]
-
- Agmon, T. (1972). The relations among equity markets: a study of share price movements in the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, and Japan. The Journal of Finance, 27(4), 839-855.
- Arshanapalli, B., & Doukas, J. (1993). International stock market linkages: evidence from the pre- and post-October 1987 period. Journal of Banking & Finance, 17(1), 193-208.
- Asness, C., Israelov, R., & Liew, J. (2011). International diversification works (eventually). Financial Analysts Journal, 67(3), 32-45.
- Becker, K., Finnerty, J., & Gupta, M. (1990). The intertemporal relation between the U.S. and Japanese stock markets. The Journal of Finance, 45(4), 1297-1306.
- Becker, K., Finnerty, J., & Tucker, A. (1992). The intraday interdependence structure between U.S. and Japanese equity markets. The Journal of Financial Research, 15(1), 27-37.
- Bennett, P., & Kelleher, J. (1988). The international transmission of stock price disruption in October 1987. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review, 13(2), 17-33.
- Benson, E., & Kong, S. (2015). The co-movement of U.S. equity market returns with the developed and emerging markets of Australasia and Asia. International Journal of Business and Social Research, 5(1), 102-117.
- Bookstaber, R. (2007). The myth of non correlation. Institutional Investor, 32(7), 80-82.
- Cha, B., & Oh, S. (2000). The relationship between developed equity markets and the Asian-Pacific’s emerging equity markets. International Review of Economics and Finance, 9(4), 299-322.
- Chang, T., & Nieh, C. (2001). International transmission of stock price movements among Taiwan and its trading partners: Hong Kong, Japan, and the United States. Review of Asian-Pacific Financial Markets and Policies, 4(4), 379-401.
- Cheng, H., & Glascock, J. (2006). Stock market linkages before and after the Asian financial crisis: Evidence from three greater China economic area stock markets and the US. Review of Asian-Pacific Financial Markets and Policies, 9(2), 297-315.
- Cheung, Y., & Mak, S. (1992). The international transmission of stock market fluctuation between developed markets and the Asian-Pacific markets. Applied Financial Economics, 2(1), 43-47.
- Coeurdacier, N., & Guibaud, S. (2011). International portfolio diversification. Journal of International Money and Finance, 30, 289-308.
- Dekker, A., Sen, K., & Young, M. (2001). Equity market linkages in the Asia Pacific region: A comparison of the orthogonalized and generalized VAR approaches. Global Finance Journal, 12(1), 1-33.
- Dimson, E. (1979). Risk measurement when shares are subject to infrequent trading. Journal of Financial Economics, 7(2), 197-226.
- Erb, C., Harvey, C., & Viskanta, T. (1994). Forecasting international equity correlations. Financial Analysts Journal, 50(6), 32-45.
- Errunza, V. (1977). Gains from portfolio diversification into less developed countries’ securities. Journal of International Business Studies, 8(2), 83-99.
- Eun, C., Huang, W., & Lai, S. (2008). International diversification with large- and small-cap stocks. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 43(2), 489-523.
- Eun, C., & Shim, S. (1989). The international transmission of stock market movements. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 24(2), 241-256.
- Fernandes, J., & Ornelas, J. (2010). The benefits of international portfolio diversification. Journal of International Finance and Economics, 10(4), 72-79.
- Grubel, H. (1968). Internationally diversified portfolios: welfare gains and capital flows. The American Economic Review, 58(5), 1299-1314.
- Gupta, R., & Mollik, A. (2008). Volatility, time varying correlation and international portfolio diversification: an empirical study of Australia and emerging markets. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 18, 18-37.
- Harvey, C. (1995). Predictable risk and returns in emerging markets. The Review of Financial Studies, 8(3), 773-816.
- Horn, Jr., B. (2010). International diversification: why it still makes sense. American Association of Individual Investors Journal, 32(10), 7-10.
- Hughen, C., & Mathew, P. (2009). The efficiency of international information flow: evidence from the ETF and CEF prices. International Review of Financial Analysis, 18(1-2), 40-49.
- Kaplanis, E. (1988). Stability and forecasting of the comovement measures of international stock market returns. Journal of International Money and Finance, 7(1), 63-75.
- Khoury, S., Dodin, B., & Takada, H. (1987). Multiple time-series analysis of national stock markets and their structure: some implications. In S. Khoury and A. Ghosh (Eds.), Recent Developments in International Banking and Finance, 1 (pp. 169-185). Lexington, MA: Lexington Books.
- Kohlers, T., Kohlers, G., & Pandey, V. (1998). The contribution of emerging markets in international diversification strategies. Applied Financial Economics, 8, 445-454.
- Kolluri, B., Machuga, S., & Wahab, M. (2014). Co-movements of US and Asian equity markets: Evidence from asymmetric and time-varying coefficients. Review of Asian-Pacific Financial Markets and Policies, 17(4), 297-315.
- Koutmos, G., & Booth, G. (1995). Asymmetric volatility transmission in international stock markets. Journal of International Money and Finance, 14(6), 747-762.
- Levy, H., & Sarnat, M. (1970). International diversification of investment portfolios. The American Economic Review, 60(4), 668-675.
- Levy, A., & Lieberman, O. (2013). Overreaction of country ETFs to US market returns: intraday vs. daily horizons and the role of synchronized trading. Journal of Banking & Finance, 37(5), 1412-1421.
- Li, M. (2007). Volatility states and international diversification of international stock markets. Applied Economics, 39(2), 1867-1876.
- Lin, W., Engle, R., & Ito, T. (1991). Do bulls and bears move across borders? International transmission of stock returns and volatility as the world turns (NBER Working Paper No. 3911).
- Liu, Y., & Pan, M. (1997). Mean and volatility spillover effects in the U.S. and Pacific-Basin stock markets. Multinational Finance Journal, 1(1), 47-62.
- Longin, F., & Solnik, B. (1995). Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990? Journal of International Money and Finance, 14(1), 3-26.
- Page, S., & Panariello, R. (2018). When diversification fails. Financial Analysts Journal, 74(3), 19-32.
- Panton, D., Lessig, P., & Joy, O. (1976). Comovement of international equity markets: a taxonomic approach. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 11(3), 415-432.
- Reilly, F., & Wright, D. (1988). A comparison of published betas. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 14(3), 64-69.
- Ripley, D. (1973). Systematic elements in the linkage of national stock market indices. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 55(3), 356-361.
- Shawky, H., Kuenzel, R., & Mikhail, A. (1997). International portfolio diversification: a synthesis and update. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 7(4), 303-327.
- Solnik, B., Boucrelle, C., & Le Fur, Y. (1996). International market correlation and volatility. Financial Analysts Journal, 52(5), 17-34.
- Wei, K., Liu, Y., Yang, C., & Chaung, G. (1995). Volatility and price change spillover effects across the developed and emerging markets. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 3(1), 113-136.