Tax policy and housing prices: evidence from Vietnam using event study approach
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.14(4).2017.11
-
Article InfoVolume 14 2017, Issue #4, pp. 121-132
- Cited by
- 907 Views
-
177 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License
This paper examines the effect of tax policy on housing prices in Vietnam for the period from October 2004 to September 2016 using event study approach. The authors find that all five key changes made to the personal income tax, corporate income tax and non-farm land use tax have caused the housing prices to decline on average 6-11% during the event window, but only the impact of the personal income tax changes is statistically significant. The fact that changes in housing prices are mostly seen prior to the effective date of the tax policy change implies that tax policy change indeed has influenced the housing prices in Vietnam. Although this research has not examined the mechanism through which tax policy has influenced the housing prices, the findings offer some implications for the government in terms of using tax policy for controlling housing prices in Vietnam. The research is also of very few papers in this literature that use the event study approach.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)C10, H73, H22
-
References39
-
Tables5
-
Figures2
-
- Figure 1. Housing prices in Vietnam
- Figure 2. Event and estimation window
-
- Table 1. Effect of the introduction of personal income tax law on housing price
- Table 2. Effect of the modification to personal income tax law on housing price
- Table 3. Effect of the modification to personal income tax law on housing price
- Table 4. Effect of the modification to corporate income tax law on housing price
- Table 5. Effect of the introduction of the non-farm land use tax law on housing price
-
- Adams, Z., & Füss, R. (2010). Macroeconomic determinants of international housing markets. Journal of Housing Economics, 19(1), 38-50.
- Andrews, D. (2010). Real house prices in OECD countries: The role of demand shocks and structural and policy factors (OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 831). OECD Publishing.
- Apergis, N., & Rezitis, A. (2003). Housing prices and macroeconomic factors in Greece: prospects within the EMU. Applied Economics Letters, 10(9), 561-565.
- Baffoe-Bonnie, J. (1998). The dynamic impact of macroeconomic aggregates on housing prices and stock of houses: a national and regional analysis. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 17(2), 179-197.
- Bai, C., Li, Q., & Ouyang, M. (2014). Property taxes and home prices: A tale of two cities. Journal of Econometrics, 180(1), 1-15.
- Berkovec, J., & Fullerton, D. (1989). The general equilibrium effects of inflation on housing consumption and investment. American Economic Review, 79, 277-282.
- Berkovec, J., & Fullerton, D. (1992). A general equilibrium model of housing, taxes, and portfolio choice. Journal of Political Economy, 100(2), 390-429.
- Best, M. C., & Kleven, H. J. (2017). Housing Market Responses to Transaction Taxes: Evidence From Notches and Stimulus in the UK. The Review of Economic Studies, rdx032, 1-37.
- Bork, L., & Møller, S. V. (2016). Housing Price Forecastability: A Factor Analysis. Real Estate Economics.
- Capozza, D., R., Green, R. K., & Hendershott, P. H. (1998). Taxes and House Prices (Working Paper February No. 3, 1999).
- Case, K. E., Glaeser, E. L., & Parker, J. A. (2000). Real estate and the macroeconomy. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, 119-162.
- Du, Z., & Zhang, L. (2015). Home-purchase restriction, property tax and housing price in China: A counterfactual analysis. Journal of Econometrics, 188, 558-568.
- ECB (2009). Housing finance in the euro area (Occasional Paper Series 101, European Central Bank).
- Feldstein, M. (1982). Inflation, tax rules and accumulation of residential and non-residential capital. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 84(2), 293-311.
- Follain, J. R. (1982). Does inflation affect real behavior? The case of housing. Southern Economic Journal, 48, 570-82.
- General Statistics Office (2017). Socio-Economic Statistics Database, Hanoi, Vietnam.
- Gervais, M. (2002). Housing taxation and capital accumulation. Journal of Monetary Economics, 49(7), 1461-1489.
- Giussani, B., Hsai, M., & Tsolacos, S. (1992). A comparative analysis of the major determinants of office rental values in Europe. Journal of Property Valuation and Investment, 11, 157-173.
- Goodhart, C., & Hofmann, B. (2008). House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 24(1), 180-205.
- Goulder, L. H. (1989). Tax policy, housing prices, and housing investment. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 19(2), 281-304.
- Igan, D., Kabundi, A., Simone, F., Pinheiro, M., & Tamirisa, N. (2011). Housing, credit, and real activity cycles: Characteristics and comovement. Journal of Housing Economics, 20(3), 210-231.
- Kearl, J. H. (1979). Inflation, mortgages, and housing. Journal of Political Economy, 87, 1-29.
- Kuttner, K., & Shim, I. (2016). Can non-interest rate policies stabilize housing markets? Evidence from a panel of 57 economies. Journal of Financial Stability, 26, 31-44.
- Lerbs, O. (2011). Is there a link between homeownership and unemployment? Evidence from German regional data. International Economics and Economic Policy, 8(4), 407-426.
- Leung, C. (2004). Macroeconomics and housing: a review of the literature. Journal of Housing Economics, 13(4), 249-267.
- MacKinlay, C. (1997). Event Studies in Economics and Finance. Journal of Economic Literature, 35, 13-39.
- Madsen, J. (2012). A behavioural model of house prices. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 82(1), 21-38.
- Mankiw, N., & Weil, D. (1989). The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market. Regional science and urban economics, 19(2), 235- 58.
- Mikhed, V., & Zemcik, P. (2009). Do house prices reflect fundamentals? Aggregate and panel data evidence. Journal of Housing Economics, 18(2), 140- 149.
- National Assembly (2007). Personal Income Tax Law. Hanoi, Vietnam.
- National Assembly (2011). Changes and Additional Clauses to the Non-Farm Land Use Tax Law. Hanoi, Vietnam.
- National Assembly (2013a). Changes and Additional Clauses to the Personal Income Tax Law. Hanoi, Vietnam.
- National Assembly (2013b). Changes and Additional Clauses to the Corporate Income Tax Law. Hanoi, Vietnam.
- National Assembly (2014). Changes and Additional Clauses to the Personal Income Tax Law. Hanoi, Vietnam.
- Poterba, J. (1992). Taxation and housing: Old questions, new answers. American Economic Review, 82, 237-242.
- Rosenthal, L. (1999). House Prices and Local Taxes in the UK. Fiscal Studies, 20(1), 61-76.
- Skinner, J. (1996). The dynamic efficiency cost of not taxing housing. Journal of Public Economics, 59(3), 397-417.
- Turnovsky, S., & Okuyama, T. (1994). Taxes, housing, and capital accumulation in a two-sector growing economy. Journal of Public Economics, 53(2), 245-267.
- Zan, Y., & Wang, S. (2012). Permanent and transitory shocks in owner-occupied housing: A common trend model of price dynamics. Journal of Housing Economics, 21(4), 336-346.