Soft budget constraints in Polish public healthcare entities

The aim of the article was to find out the optimal capital structure of the companies in relation to their maximum performance. To reach this aim, the data of the companies operating in the field of heat industry of the Slovak Republic were used. As the first method, a correlation matrix was applied. It was found out that there is statistically significant relationship between capital structure indicators and performance of the companies. Due to the lack of data in time series, the authors were not able to apply multiple regression model to assess the impact of these indicators on performance. Therefore, a method of modelling was used to analyze the impact of the change in capital structure on performance. Modelling was based on the principle of a gradual change in the capital structure in favor of debt. By the increase in debt, it was confirmed that there was a change in the values of selected indicators. In the course of analysis, it was confirmed that the value of EVA equity increased with the rising indebtedness by which the proposition I of the modified MM theory was supported. The performance expressed by EVA entity indicator is at its minimum when the capital structure is 90:10 in favor of equity. By increasing the debt, EVA entity rises. Based on these results, it can be stated that the performance of selected companies increases when the share of debt also rises, even when taking into account the rising financial risks.

One of the pressing problems in the modern development of the world financial system is an excessive increase in state debt, which has many negative consequences for the financial system of any country. At the same time, special attention should be paid to developing an effective state debt management system based on its forecast values. The paper is aimed at determining the level of persistence and forecasting future values of state debt in the short term using time series analysis, i.e., an ARIMA model. The study covers the time series of Ukraine’s state debt data for the period from December 2004 to November 2020. A visual analysis of the dynamics of state debt led to the conclusion about the unstable debt situation in Ukraine and a significant increase in debt over the past six years. Using the Hurst exponent, the paper provides the calculated value of the level of persistence in time series data. Based on the obtained indicator, a conclusion was made on the confirmation of expediency to use autoregressive models for predicting future dynamics of Ukraine’s state debt. Using the EViews software, the procedure for forecasting Ukraine’s state debt by utilizing the ARIMA model was illustrated, i.e., the series was tested for stationarity, the time series of monthly state debt data were converted to stationary, the model parameters were determined and, as a result, the most optimal specification of the ARIMA model was selected.

The new quality of globalization, which has emerged in the last decade and encompasses drastic changes in the economic, political and technological spheres, gives rise to a number of phenomena that violate the traditional logic of historical progress. One of them is the metamorphosis of the world economic cyclicity that emerged during the global 2020 economic crisis and led to a radical change in its nature, driving forces and regulatory mechanisms. The paper reveals the prerequisites for the crisis caused by traditional and emerging factors and proves its pandemic nature, which manifests itself, on one hand, in the synchronization of national business cycles, and on the other – in the integrative mutual influence of its political, institutional and environmental components. It has been proven that a particularly destructive role in the global regulatory mechanism was played by the “overlap” in space and time of the economic crisis and the health crisis provoked by the coronavirus pandemic. This requires an urgent systematic reform of global countercyclical management institutions based on a gestalt paradigm, which is qualitatively different in principles, goals and tools from the existing mechanisms for managing national economies and multinational enterprises. Scenario forecasts of the post-pandemic future of the world economy through overcoming the growing disintegration and deglobalization trends are outlined.