Development of the credit market of Ukraine under macroeconomic instability

The study examined the determinants of bank stability within the South African banking sector. By controlling for individual bank characteristics and market characteristics, the study determined possible determinants of solvency, a proxy for bank stability, measured by z-score within the South African financial sector. The South African financial sector is highly concentrated but with a significantly large number of banks, the greater portion being foreign owned banks. The business models of some of the financial intermediaries differ from the big four and therefore the influence of the type of business model is of great interest in this study, as it highlights a unique feature of the South African financial sector. The study’s investigation used panel data estimation techniques and found that among the specific bank characteristics, lending activity and capitalization do significantly affect solvency of banks and at sector level concentration was significant. The crisis dummy also revealed that the presence of a financial crisis heightened insolvency. The results have implications for financial institutions and therefore are of interest to regulators, bank management and researchers. Policy prescription in the form of Prompt Corrective Action framework is made to ensure proactive reaction to trends likely to cause instability.

Financial support for the agrarian sector is the priority of economic policy in many countries of the world, as it plays a key role in achieving the goals of sustainable development, in particular poverty reduction, food security, environmental improvement, including reducing CO2 emissions, reducing water pollution, etc. In the main, the financial support for the agrarian sector of the various countries is multi-channel and combines budget financing and financial market opportunities. At the same time, for many countries, including Ukraine, the issue of the ratio of these sources of financing and their influence on the development of agricultural production remains unresolved. The analysis of budget financing has shown a lack of stability in the implementation of financial support programs for the agrarian sector of Ukraine, which affects the financial sustainability of enterprises and their ability to attract market financing. In the article, using the structural modeling, the necessary amount of financing for the agrarian sector was determined through budget financing, bank lending and agro-insurance. The results of the calculations showed that the actual size of bank lending to agrarian enterprises is significantly lower than the simulated values. At the same time, budget financing creates conditions for ensuring financial sustainability of agrarian enterprises and encourages them to use bank lending, while increasing budget financing reduces the need for agro-insurance operations, which is a negative consequence of its use.

According to reports data of the International Institute of Management Development (IMD) and World Economic Forum (WEF), contries’ competitiveness tendencies were defined: rate of global competitiveness index remains lower than the rate, achieved before the global financial and economic crisis, non-linear distribution of benefits from economic growth between EU countries, Ukrainian rating falling by macroeconomic stability by 21 points in 2017 in comparison with 2018. It is not unexpected that realization of countries’ policy concerning their competitiveness growth requires some cost. Thus, author supposes that it is important to study key aspects of state finance, which can have great impact on the international competitiveness and solve the country’s macroeconomic stability problem. This paper shows results of author’s own research, carried out using methodic tools of scientists Ahvaz Shahid Chamran University, Ahvaz, Iran Abdolmajid Ahangari and Aziz Arman. It is based on evaluation of instability time rows of four economic variables of inflation (TINF), the ratio of budget deficit on growth domestic product (GDP) (TBD), foreign debt on GDP (TFD) and exchange rate deviation from the previous period (TRO) and calculation of macroeconomic instability index on their base MII_tn. Research showed that all variables of macroeconomic instability index MII_tn have a positive correlation; therefore, subindex of inflation rate instability and subindex of exchange rate to the previous period have the largest impact on the macroeconomic instability index MII_tn .