Empirical evidence of market reactions based on signaling theory in Indonesia stock exchange
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.16(2).2019.06
-
Article InfoVolume 16 2019, Issue #2, pp. 66-77
- Cited by
- 2831 Views
-
1236 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Signaling theory assumes that it is necessary to signal investors to how they perceive company’s prospects. One of them is dividend announcements. The announcement of dividends is predicted to be a signal for investors in the investment decision making process. This study aims to determine and analyze the effect of dividend announcements, both increases and decreases in dividends, on stock returns. This study is intended to find empirical evidence about market reactions based on signaling theory in Indonesia Stock Exchange on the period 2017. The analysis of this study uses the event study method and hypothesis testing carried out using different test paired sample t-test. The results of this study prove that the market reacts to the announcement of dividends. The market reaction is indicated by the value of abnormal returns, namely abnormal returns in the positive direction when the announcement of dividend increased and abnormal returns in the negative direction when the announcement of dividend decreased. The value of abnormal returns in a positive direction reflects the company’s performance in good condition, and vice versa. This result indicates that dividend announcements are a signal and contain information relevant to investors in the investment decision making process.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)G14, G35, M21
-
References55
-
Tables2
-
Figures0
-
- Table 1. Different test results before and after announcement of increase in dividends based on average abnormal return on the period 2017
- Table 2. Different test results before and after announcement of decreases in dividends based on average abnormal return on the period 2017
-
- Aamir, M., & Shah, S. Z. A. (2011). Dividend Announcements and the Abnormal Stock Returns for the Event Firm and Its Rivals. Australian Journal of Business and Management Research, 1(8), 72-76.
- Abdullah, N. H., Rashid, R. A., & Ibrahim, Y. (2002). The Effect of Dividend Announcements on Stock Returns for Companies Listed on the Main Board of the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange. Malaysian Management Journal, 6(1&2), 81-98.
- Abdullah, S. (2002). Free Cash Flow, Agency Theory and Signaling Theory: Concept and Empirical Research. Jurnal Akuntansi dan Investasi, 3(2), 151-170 [in Indonesian].
- Akbar, M., & Baiq, H. H. (2010). Reaction of Stock Prices to Dividend Announcements and Market Efficiency in Pakistan. The Lahore Journal of Economics, 15(1), 103-125.
- Ali, M. B., & Chowdhury, T. A. (2010). Effect of Dividend on Stock Price in Emerging Stock Market: A Study on the Listed Private Commercial Banks in DSE. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2(4), 52-64.
- Amidu, M. (2007). How Does Dividend Policy Affect Performance of the Firm on Ghana Stock Exchange? Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 4(2), 103-112.
- Bodie, Z., Kane, A., & Marcus, A. J. (2013). Investment (10th ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
- Brau, J. C., & Carpenter, J. T. (2012). Small-Firm Uniqueness and Signaling Theory. Journal of Business, Economics & Finance, 1(1), 50-63.
- Brigham, E. F., & Houston, J. F. (2010). Fundamental of Financial Management (Indonesian version). Jakarta: Salemba Empat.
- Chiang, Y., & Lai, B. (2015). Dividend Payout Policy Decision: The Role of Foreign Ownership. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 12(2), 205-213.
- Damayanti, R., Marwati, F. S., & Widayanti, R. (2017). Dividend Policy Analysis Based on Lintner’s Theory. AGREGAT: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis, 1(2), 183-194.
- Esana, R., & Darmawan, A. (2017). Effects of Dividend Policy and Investment Decisions on Company Values and Their Impact on Profitability t + 1: Study on Consumer Goods Industry Sub-Sector Registered on the Indonesia Stock Exchange Period 2006–2016). Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis, 50(6), 201-210 [in Indonesian].
- Esomar, M. J. F. (2010). Investor Reaction to Announcement of Increase and Decrease in Dividends on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Soso-Q, 2(2), 6-28 [in Indonesian].
- Halim, A. (2005). Investment Analysis [in Indonesian]. Jakarta: Salemba Empat.
- Harbi, A., & Bujang, I. (2012). Dividend Announcement Effects on Malaysian Stock Market Return: New Empirical Evidence using Panel Data Approach. The Business & Management Review, 3(1), 374-384.
- Harbi, A., & Bujang, I. (2016). Dividend announcements effects on stock market returns: a comparative study between conventional and Shari’ah compliant stocks on Bursa Malaysia. Journal of Business and Retail Management Research (JBRMR), 11(1), 92-102.
- Harmono (2014). Financial Management Based on the Balanced Scorecard Theory, Case and Business Research Approaches. Jakarta: PT. Bumi Aksara.
- Husnan, S. (2005). Basics of Portfolio Theory and Securities Analysis. Yogyakarta: BPFE-UGM.
- Jayaraman, N., & Shastri, K. (1993). The Effects of the Announcements of Dividend Increases on Stock Return Volatility: The Evidence from the Options Market. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 20(5), 673-685.
- Jogiyanto, H. (2009). Portfolio Theory and Investment Analysis. Yogyakarta: BPFE-UGM.
- Jones, C. P. (2000). Investments Analysis and Management (6th ed.). New York: Jhon Willey and Sons Inc.
- Karasek, R., & Bryant, P. (2015). Signaling Theory: Past, Present, and Future. Electronic Business Journal, 14(12), 550-558.
- Kartini (2001). Analysis of Shareholders Reaction Against Announcement of Changes in Dividend Payments at the Jakarta Stock Exchange. Jurnal Siasat Bisnis, 2, 121-142 [in Indonesian].
- Keown, A.J., Scott, D.F., Martin, J.D., & Petty, J.W. (2010). Financial Management [Indonesian version]. Jakarta: Salemba Empat.
- Kouki, M. (2017). Earnings and Dividend Announcements: Are They Interactive? Evidence from the French Context. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(1), 387-393.
- Legenzova, R., Jurakovaitė, O., & Galinskaitė, A. (2017). The Analysis of Dividend Announcement Impact on Stock Prices of Baltic Companies. Central European Business Review, 6(1), 61-76.
- Mahmood, S., Sheikh, M. F., & Ghaffari, A. Q. (2011). Dividend Announcements and Stock Returns: An Event Study on Karachi Stock Exchange. Interdisciplinary Journal of Contemporary Research in Business, 3(8), 972-981.
- Matharu, S. K., & Changle, R. (2015). An Empirical Study of Stock Prices’ Sensitivity to Dividend Announcements. Pasific Business Review International, 8(3), 83-90.
- Mehndiratta, N., & Gupta, S. (2010). Impact of Dividend Announcement on Stock Prices. International Journal of Information Technology and Knowledge Management, 2(2), 405-410.
- Menike, MGPD (2014). Stock Price Reactions to the Dividend Announcement in the Emerging Market: Case in the Colombo Stock Exchange Sri Lanka. European Journal of Business and Management, 6(12), 111-118.
- Miller, M. H., & Modigliani, F. (1961). Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares. Journal of Business, 34(4), 411-433.
- Mrzygłód, U., & Nowak, S. (2017). Market reactions to dividends announcements and payouts. Empirical evidence from the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Contemporary Economics, 11(2), 187-204.
- Mulyati, S. (2003). Reaction of Stock Prices to Changes in Cash Dividend and Yield Dividends at the Jakarta Stock Exchange. Jurnal Siasat Bisnis, 8(2), 233-249 [in Indonesian].
- Puspitaningtyas, Z. (2017). Effects of Moderating Dividend Policy in the Effect of Profitability on Firm Value. Jurnal Akuntansi, Ekonomi dan Manajemen Bisnis, 5(2), 173-180 [in Indonesian].
- Puspitaningtyas, Z. (2018). Ability of Net Income in Predicting Dividend Yield: Operating Cash Flow as a Moderating Variable. Archives of Business Research, 6(1), 226-234.
- Ratnawati, Sumiati, & Triyuwono, I. (2009). Impacts of Dividend Announcement on the Return, Return Variability, and Activities of Stock Trading Volume. Wacana, 12(4), 712-724 [in Indonesian].
- Sambodo, S. A., Efni, Y., & Halim, E. H. (2015). Effect of Dividend Announcement on Abnormal Returns and Stock Liquidity in Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (Case Study of LQ-45 Company Groups for the Period of February to July 2013). JOM FEKON, 2(1), 1-9 [in Indonesian].
- Sare, Y. A., Pearl-Kumah, S., & Salakpi, A. (2014). Market Reaction to Dividend Initiation Announcements on the Ghana Stock Exchange: the Case of Industrial Analysis. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 4(4), 440-450.
- Scott, W. R. (2015). Financial Accounting Theory (7th ed.). Toronto, Ohio: Pearson Education Canada, Inc.
- Shah, S. A., & Noreen, U. (2016). Stock Price Volatility and Role of Dividend Policy: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 6(2), 461-472.
- Shetty, S., & Sundaram, R. (2019). Funding Acquisition Drivers for New Venture Firms: Diminishing Value of Human Capital Signals in Early Rounds of Funding. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 17(1), 78-94.
- Sielvia, A. A. (2009). The Effect of Initiation Dividends and Omisi Dividends on Stock Returns in Indonesia Stock Exchange. (in Indonesian). Jurnal Siasat Bisnis, 13(2), 113-128.
- Simamora, H. (2000). Accounting Base for Business Decision Making [in Indonesian]. Jakarta: Salemba Empat.
- Slonski, T., & Zawadzki, B. (2012). The Impact of a Surprise Dividend Increase on a Stocks Performance – the Analysis of Companies Listed on the Waesaw Stock Exchange. Operations Research and Decisions, 2, 45-54.
- Su, W., Peng, M. W., Tan, W., & Cheung Y. (2014). The Signaling Effect of Corporate Social Responsibility in Emerging Economies. Journal of Business Ethics, 134(3), 479-491.
- Sudana, I. M. (2011). Corporate Financial Management: Theory and Practice [in Indonesian]. Surabaya: Erlangga.
- Sularso, R. A. (2003). The Effect of Dividend Announcement on Changes in Share Prices (Return) Before and After Ex-Dividend Date in Jakarta Stock Exchange. Jurnal Akuntansi & Keuangan, 5(1), 1-17 [in Indonesian].
- Suwanna, T. (2012). Impacts of Dividend Announcement on Stock Return. Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, 40, 721-725.
- Syamsuddin, L. (2011). Corporate Financial Management [in Indonesian]. Jakarta: Rajawali Pers.
- Tandelilin, E. (2010). Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management [in Indonesian]. Yogyakarta: BPFE - UGM.
- Tastaftiani, M., & Khoiruddin, M. (2015). Analysis of the Effect of Announcement of Cash Dividends on Abnormal Return and Variability of Stock Returns. Management Analysis Journal, 4(4), 333-340 [in Indonesian].
- Truong, N. X., Huong, D. M., & Anh, N. T. V. (2017). Stock Price Reaction to Cash Dividend Announcements in Vietnam. Journal of Economic Development, 24(2), 74-89.
- Tsuji, C. (2012). A Discussion on the Signaling Hypothesis of Dividend Policy. The Open Business Journal, 5, 1-7.
- Virda, Y., & Karlina. (2009). Effect of Dividend Announcement on Stock Return Before and After Ex-Dividend Date in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Proceeding PESAT (Psikologi, Ekonomi, Sastra, Arsitektur & Sipil), 3, B72-B79 [in Indonesian].
- Zare, R., Kiafar, H., Kanani, M. A., & Farzanfar, F. (2013). Dividend Policy from the Signaling Perspective and its Effects on Information Asymmetry among Management and Investors. Research Journal of Applied Sciences, Engineering and Technology, 6(21), 4090-4097.