Do institutional quality and capital account openness affect capital flow? Evidence from Asian bond markets
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.22(2).2025.13
-
Article InfoVolume 22 2025, Issue #2, pp. 155-168
- 18 Views
-
6 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Capital inflow into local bond markets helps countries with infrastructure financing, funding fiscal deficit, enhancing bond market liquidity, and diversifying investment portfolios globally. This study aims to assess the impact of institutional quality and capital account openness on capital inflow into Asian local bond markets for the period 2002–2023. For reflecting Asian bond markets, seven countries, namely, China, Malaysia, South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand, have been considered. The rule of law, regulatory quality, control of corruption, voice & accountability, political stability, and government effectiveness indices are the various proxies considered in this study to measure the different aspects of institutional quality. Further, the Chinn-Ito index is employed to measure capital account openness. Fixed effect, random effect, and pooled data ordinary least squares are employed as different forms of panel data estimation methods in this study. Moreover, Breusch-Pagan LM and Hausman tests are performed to select the most efficient estimation method. This study reveals that the rule of law, regulatory quality, and control of corruption have a positive influence on capital inflow at a 5% significance level and political stability at a 1% significance level. In contrast, capital account openness has a negative impact at a 1% significance level. However, neither voice & accountability nor government effectiveness have a significant influence over capital inflow. These findings suggest improving the rule of law and regulatory quality, creating policies for political stability, stringent acts against corruption, and controlling capital account openness to encourage capital inflow into local bond markets.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)F32, G15, K22, K12
-
References76
-
Tables6
-
Figures1
-
- Figure 1. Conceptual framework
-
- Table 1. Descriptive statistics of research variables
- Table 2. Pairwise correlation coefficient of all the variables in the model
- Table 3. Results of the unit root ADF – Fisher Chi-square test
- Table 4. Hausman test and Breusch-Pagan LM tests for random effects
- Table 5. Panel data regression model
- Table A1. Operational definition of variables
-
- Agyei, S. K., Obuobi, N. K., Isshaq, M. Z., Abeka, M. J., Gatsi, J. G., Boateng, E., & Amoah, E. K. (2022). Country-Level corporate governance and Foreign Portfolio Investments in Sub-Saharan Africa: The moderating role of institutional quality. Cogent Economics & Finance, 10(1), 2106636.
- Ahmed, S., & Zlate, A. (2014). Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world? Journal of International Money and Finance, 48(PB), 221-248.
- Aizenman, J., Chinn, M. D., & Ito, H. (2020). Financial Spillovers and Macroprudential Policies. Open Economies Review, 31(3), 529-563.
- Akhtaruzzaman, M., Hajzler, C., Owen, P. D., Akhtaruzzaman, M., Hajzler, C., & Owen, P. D. (2017). Does institutional quality resolve the Lucas Paradox? Applied Economics, 00(00), 1-20.
- Akisik, O. (2020). The impact of financial development, IFRS, and rule of LAW on foreign investments: A cross-country analysis. International Review of Economics & Finance, 69, 815-838.
- Alfaro, L., Kalemli-Ozcan, S., & Volosovych, V. (2008). Why doesn’t capital flow from rich to poor countries? An empirical investigation. Review of Economics and Statistics, 90(2), 347-368.
- Al-Smadi, M. O. (2018). Determinants of foreign portfolio investment: The case of Jordan. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 15(1), 328-336.
- Amin, A., Khan, R. U., & Maqsood, A. (2023). Financial development, entrepreneurship and financial openness: evidence from Asia. Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 39(3), 671-686.
- Apaitan, T., Luangaram, P., & Manopimoke, P. (2022). Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand. Empirical Economics, 62(3), 933–989.
- Arteta, C., Eichengreen, B., & Wyplosz, C. (2003). When does capital account liberalization help more than it hurts? Economic Policy in the International Economy: Essays in Honor of Assaf Razin, 3, 177-206.
- Ashenafi, B. B., & Dong, Y. (2023). Financial openness, financial sector development, and income inequality: With an extensive set of pull and push factors. African Development Review, 35(2), 138-151.
- Bathia, D., Demirer, R., Ferrer, R., & Raheem, I. D. (2023). Cross-border capital flows and information spillovers across the equity and currency markets in emerging economies. Journal of International Money and Finance, 139, 102948.
- Bhatta, S. R., Adhikari, P., & Byanjankar, R. (2020). Choice of Regression Models in Time Series Data. Economic Journal of Development Issues, 29(1), 101-129.
- Bhujabal, P., Sethi, N., & Padhan, P. C. (2024). Effect of institutional quality on FDI inflows in South Asian and Southeast Asian countries. Heliyon, 10(5), e27060.
- Boonman, T. M. (2023). Portfolio capital flows before and after the Global Financial Crisis. Economic Modelling, 127, 106440.
- Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
- Burger, J. D., Sengupta, R., Warnock, F. E., & Warnock, V. C. (2015). US investment in global bonds: as the Fed pushes, some EMEs pull. Economic Policy, 30(84), 729-766.
- Ceesay, E. K., & Moussa, Y. M. (2022). Pooled ordinary least-square, fixed effects and random effects modelling in a panel data regression analysis: a consideration of international commodity price and economic growth indicators in 35 Sub-Saharan African countries. International Journal of Technology Transfer and Commercialisation, 19(1), 23-44.
- Cerdeiro, D. A., & Komaromi, A. (2021). Financial openness and capital inflows to emerging markets: In search of robust evidence. International Review of Economics and Finance, 73, 444-458.
- Chen, F., & Jiang, G. (2023). The impact of institutional quality on foreign direct investment: empirical analysis based on mediating and moderating effects. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 36(2).
- Chinn, M. D., & Ito, H. (2006). What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions. Journal of Development Economics, 81(1), 163-192.
- Cieślik, A., & Goczek, Ł. (2018). Control of corruption, international investment, and economic growth – Evidence from panel data. World Development, 103, 323-335.
- Damasceno, A. O., & Guedes, D. R. (2024). Financial openness, capital accumulation, and productivity in emerging and developing economies. Economic Modelling, 133, 106663.
- Davis, J. S., & Zlate, A. (2023). The global financial cycle and capital flows during the COVID-19 pandemic. European Economic Review, 156, 104477.
- Eguren-Martin, F., O’Neill, C., Sokol, A., & von dem Berge, L. (2024). Capital flows-at-risk: Push, pull and the role of policy. Journal of International Money and Finance, 147, 103146.
- Eller, M., Huber, F., & Schuberth, H. (2020). How important are global factors for understanding the dynamics of international capital flows? Journal of International Money and Finance, 109.
- Feng, C., Han, L., Vigne, S., & Xu, Y. (2023). Geopolitical risk and the dynamics of international capital flows. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 82, 101693.
- Ferreira, M. A., & Miguel, A. F. (2011). The determinants of domestic and foreign bond bias. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 21(5), 279-300.
- Forbes, K. J., & Warnock, F. E. (2012). Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment. Journal of International Economics, 88(2), 235-251.
- Forbes, K., Fratzscher, M., Kostka, T., & Straub, R. (2016). Bubble thy neighbour: Portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls. Journal of International Economics, 99, 85-104.
- Gelos, G., Gornicka, L., Koepke, R., Sahay, R., & Sgherri, S. (2022). Capital flows at risk: Taming the ebbs and flows. Journal of International Economics, 134, 103555.
- Gori, F., Lepers, E., & Mehigan, C. (2024). Capital flow deflection under the magnifying glass. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 29(3), 3758-3778.
- Gupta, S., Yadav, S. S., & Jain, P. K. (2024). Does institutional quality matter for foreign direct investment flows? Empirical evidence from BRICS economies. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 19(12), 4431-4458.
- Harrison, A., & Reed, R. R. (2023). International capital flows, liquidity risk, and monetary policy. Journal of Macroeconomics, 77, 103540.
- Hausman, J. (1978). Specification Tests in Econometrics. Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271.
- Hussain, M., & Goswami, B. (2022). Sector Specific Determinants of Foreign Portfolio Investment Inflows in India: A Panel ARDL Approach. Global Business Review, 09721509221137204.
- Igan, D., Kutan, A. M., & Mirzaei, A. (2020). The real effects of capital inflows in emerging markets. Journal of Banking and Finance, 119, 105933.
- Jain, P. K., Kuvvet, E., & Pagano, M. S. (2017). Corruption’s impact on foreign portfolio investment. International Business Review, 26(1), 23-35.
- Julio, B., & Yook, Y. (2016). Policy uncertainty, irreversibility, and cross-border flows of capital. Journal of International Economics, 103, 13-26.
- Kaya, A. I., & Erden, L. (2023). Capital-flow volatility in emerging markets: A panel GARCH approach. International Finance, 26(2), 172-188.
- Kaya, A. I., Erden, L., & Ozkan, I. (2022). Detecting capital flow surges in developing countries. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 27(3), 3510-3530.
- Kharabsheh, B., & Gharaibeh, O. K. (2022). Corruption, political instability and their impact on investment: An FMOLS approach. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 19(1), 77-90.
- Kollamparambil, U., & Gumbo, D. (2018). Capital flight in Africa : an analysis of macroeconomic and institutional quality determinants. African Finance Journal, 20(2).
- Kwabi, F. O., Boateng, A., Wonu, C., Kariuki, C., & Du, A. (2023). Political uncertainty and cross-border equity portfolio allocation decisions: International evidence. International Review of Financial Analysis, 87, 102562.
- La Porta, R., Lopez-De-Silanes, F., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1997). Legal determinants of external finance. Journal of Finance, 52(3), 1131-1150.
- Le, A. H., & Kim, T. (2021). The Impact of Institutional Quality on FDI Inflows: The Evidence from Capital Outflow of Asian Economies. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(8), 335-0343.
- Lestari, D., Lesmana, D., Yudaruddin, Y. A., & Yudaruddin, R. (2022). The impact of financial development and corruption on foreign direct investment in developing countries. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 19(2), 211-220.
- Luangaram, P., & Sethapramote, Y. (2020). Capital flows and political conflicts: Evidence from Thailand. Economics of Peace and Security Journal, 15(2), 83-100.
- Lucas, Jr, R. E. (1990). Why doesn’t capital flow from rich to poor countries? American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 80.
- Makoni, P. L. (2020). Foreign portfolio investments, exchange rates and capital openness: A panel data approach. International Journal of Economics and Business Administration, 8(2), 100-113.
- Murdipi, R., Baharumshah, A. Z., & Law, S. H. (2023). Portfolio capital flows and economic growth: Do institutional factors matter? Research in International Business and Finance, 66, 102019.
- Newell, G., & Marzuki, M. J. (2023). The impact of the COVID-19 crisis on global real estate capital flows. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 41(5), 553-573.
- Nguyen, M. L. T., Doan, T. T. T., & Bui, T. N. (2021). The impact of macroeconomic and control of corruption on foreign direct investment inflows. Polish Journal of Management Studies, 24(1), 236-249.
- Nguyen, T. T., Nasir, M. A., & Vo, X. V. (2024). Exchange rate dynamics of emerging and developing economies: Not all capital flows are alike. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 29(1), 1115-1124.
- Omotoso, M. O., Schutte, D. P., & Oberholzer, M. (2022). The effect of the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards on foreign portfolio investment in Africa. South African Journal of Accounting Research, 36(1), 57-79.
- Park, S., & Yang, J.-S. (2021). Relationships between capital flow and economic growth: A network analysis. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 72, 101345.
- Pasricha, G. K. (2018). Policy Rules for Capital Controls. SSRN Electronic Journal, 6.
- Phuong, L. C. M. (2020). Corruption and stock market development in EAP countries. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 17(2), 266-276.
- Prabheesh, K. P., Kumar, S., & Shareef, A. O. (2023). Revisiting the impact of foreign portfolio investment on stock market performance during COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty: Evidence from India. MethodsX, 10, 101988.
- Prakash, N., & Panigrahi, S. R. (2021). The impact of external debt on economic growth in emerging economies: investigating the role of capital formation. International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, 1(1), 1.
- Qureshi, F., Qureshi, S., Vinh Vo, X., & Junejo, I. (2021). Revisiting the nexus among foreign direct investment, corruption and growth in developing and developed markets. Borsa Istanbul Review, 21(1), 80-91.
- Ramzan, M. (2021). Symmetric impact of exchange rate volatility on foreign direct investment in Pakistan: do the global financial crises and political regimes matter? Annals of Financial Economics, 16(04), 2250007.
- Roy, S., & Kemme, D. M. (2020). The run-up to the global financial crisis: A longer historical view of financial liberalization, capital inflows, and asset bubbles. International Review of Financial Analysis, 69(July 2019), 101377.
- Saha, S., Sadekin, M. N., & Saha, S. K. (2022). Effects of institutional quality on foreign direct investment inflow in lower-middle income countries. Heliyon, 8(10), e10828.
- Sarno, L., Tsiakas, I., & Ulloa, B. (2016). What drives international portfolio flows? Journal of International Money and Finance, 60, 53-72.
- Shovon, K. H. (2021). International Financial Reporting Standards Adoption, Investor Protection, and Foreign Portfolio Investment: a Review. International Journal of Accounting & Finance Review, 9(1), 17-38.
- Simbi, C., Arendse, J. A., & Khumalo, S. A. (2023). IFRS and FPI nexus: does the quality of the institutional framework matter for African countries? Journal of Accounting in Emerging Economies, 13(1), 195-215.
- Solow, R. M. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65-94.
- Syarifuddin, F., & Setiawan, M. (2021). Capital Flow Amid The Covid-19 Pandemic: Cross-Country Contagion Effect Among Asean5 And Projection Of The Impacts For The Indonesian Economy.
- Taşdemir, F. (2023). Financial Globalization and Growth: The Impacts of Financial Development and Governance. World Journal of Applied Economics, 9(1), 99-111.
- Tian, X., de Haan, J., & Zhao, Y. (2023). Capital flows, economic growth and the real effective exchange rate: Evidence from China. Economic and Political Studies, 11(1), 123-147.
- Ur Rehman, F., Popp, J., Ahmad, E., Khan, M. A., & Lakner, Z. (2021). Asymmetric and symmetric link between quality of institutions and sectorial foreign direct investment inflow in India: A fresh insight using simulated dynamic ARDL approach. Sustainability (Switzerland), 13(24).
- Wu, J., Li, S., & Selover, D. D. (2012). Foreign Direct Investment vs. Foreign Portfolio Investment. Management International Review, 52(5), 643-670.
- Yu, Y., & Qayyum, M. (2023). Impacts of financial openness on economic complexity: Cross-country evidence. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 28(2), 1514-1526.
- Yunan, Z. Y., & Pacheco-Jaramillo, W. A. (2024). Does corruption play a role in the process of financial globalization in emerging countries? Journal of Financial Crime, ahead-of-print(ahead-of-print).
- Zander, T. (2021). Does corruption matter for FDI flows in the OECD? A gravity analysis. In International Economics and Economic Policy, 18(2). Springer Berlin Heidelberg.