COVID-19 and domestic trade in Bulgaria
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Author(s)Lyubomir TodorovLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7781-9549
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DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.20(4).2022.09
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Article InfoVolume 20 2022, Issue #4, pp. 111-126
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Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Domestic trade is an essential contributor to economic growth and an indicator of the people’s welfare. It is vulnerable to the COVID-19 crisis due to the pandemic itself and the government’s measures against it. An accurate estimation of the pandemic influence on domestic trade is needed for effective economic intervention in support of the economic recovery and improvement of the well-being of the population. The aim of this paper is to estimate the magnitude and timing of the COVID-19 impact on domestic trade in Bulgaria. The data used in the study covered the period 2000–2020 with monthly data for the indicator “Turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria.” This paper employed unit root tests, autocorrelation function analysis, building, estimating, forecasting ARIMA and ARCH models, and intervention analysis. The results revealed that Bulgarian domestic trade followed the difference-stationary process as unit root tests failed to reject the random walk hypothesis. The COVID-19 impact on domestic trade proved to be long-lasting and has permanently decreased its level since March 2020. The timing of the impact coincided with the government’s measures against the pandemic. The drop in the volume of domestic trade was substantial and estimated at 19.3%. Following the nature of domestic trade, determined and decisive intervention is necessary if the Bulgarian government seeks to expand domestic demand and successfully procure economic recovery.
- Keywords
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JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)C12, C22, C51
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References41
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Tables7
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Figures10
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- Figure A1. Turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (Indices, 2015 = 100%)
- Figure A2. Turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (logs)
- Figure A3. ACF for the turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (logs)
- Figure A4. Turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (logs, first differences)
- Figure A5. ACF for the turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (logs, first differences)
- Figure A6. Turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (logs, seasonal differences)
- Figure A7. ACF for the turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (logs, seasonal differences)
- Figure A8. Turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (logs, first, and seasonal differences)
- Figure A9. ACF for the turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (logs, first, and seasonal differences)
- Figure A10. Observed forecast error for the turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (logs, first, and seasonal differences)
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- Table A1. Seasonal unit root test
- Table A2. Estimation results for (5-6) model
- Table A3. Residuals’ ACF for (5-6) model
- Table A4. Squared residuals’ ACF for (5-6) model
- Table A5. Estimation results for (5-6) final model
- Table A6. Residuals’ ACF for (5-6) final model
- Table A7. Squared residuals’ ACF for (5-6) final model
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Monetary access and survival of small and medium-sized enterprises in South Africa post-COVID-19 era
Thabiso Sthembiso Msomi ,
Nontokozo Grace Ngcobo
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.21(3).2023.28
Problems and Perspectives in Management Volume 21, 2023 Issue #3 pp. 351-360 Views: 344 Downloads: 120 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯThe COVID-19 pandemic has posed significant challenges to the survival of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in South Africa, particularly in accessing necessary funding for their daily operations. This study aimed to assess the relationship between monetary access and survival of SMEs in South Africa in the post-COVID-19 era. Quantitative methods were employed to collect data from a sample of 321 SMEs in South Africa, selected through purposive technique. The collected data were analyzed using SPSS, with linear regression and Pearson’s correlation analysis determining the impact of independent factors on the dependent variable. The findings revealed a notable positive correlation between monetary access and the survival of SMEs in the post-COVID-19 era. Specifically, increased access to financial resources was associated with improved survival rates for SMEs. Furthermore, limited financial access hindered the range of services SMEs could provide and restricted their overall performance. These findings emphasize the critical importance of policymakers regularly evaluating and revising their policy actions to address the challenges SMEs face in accessing finances. By adopting effective measures to enhance monetary access for SMEs, policymakers can support their survival and enable them to thrive in the post-COVID-19 era. Finally, this study underscores the significance of monetary access for SMEs’ survival in South Africa following the COVID-19 pandemic. It highlights the need for policy interventions that alleviate SMEs’ difficulties in obtaining funding, enabling them to contribute significantly to economic growth and development.
