Oleksandra Kurbet

The purpose of the paper is to analyze current trends in the gas futures market and the prerequisites for their spreading in Ukraine. The analysis is based on scientific research results, search query time series provided by Google Trends, and statistical databases of derivative markets. The paper reveals the trends in the reshaping of the commodity derivatives market after 2008 in favor of commodity derivatives and the fast-growing volume of gas futures in the EU after 2017. The dual reason for these trends comes from the growing energy challenges and the tightening of financial derivatives regulation. Both reasons depend on real economic activity. This determines the presence of economic prerequisites for the spread of gas futures in the world.
The paper identifies the main institutional prerequisites for the spread of gas futures in Ukraine: an active gas exchange with growing volume of the spot trading and a situational factor of the energy market reforming. Initiatives of the gas market liberalization in Ukraine correspond to the energy market reform in EU. The identified trends, prerequisites, advantages and obstacles for the spread of gas futures allow to generalize proposals for state regulation, such as organizing the Ukrainian energy market as a hub to attract participants from other countries, as well as supporting the spread of gas futures on the capital market through the implementation of clearing mechanisms.

Acknowledgment
The paper was funded as part of the “Determination of institutional conditions for the development of the exchange segment of the gas market” research project (No. 0122U002205), conducted at the State Institution “Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the NAS of Ukraine”.

Establishing institutional arrangements for regulating gas markets toward price convergence is one of the crucial integrational factors. The strategy of the firm and economic development management depends on it. The paper aims to assess the characteristics of price convergence on the natural gas markets of the Eastern European region. This region is relevant for Ukraine in a number of parameters. The assessment was made based on Eurostat data for different groups of consumers, excluding taxes, using the standard deviation detection method of price convergence for 15 countries in 2007–2020.
Despite the revealed generally positive price convergence on the natural gas markets in the considered countries after 2014, obtained results showed three points that highlight the heterogeneous structure of the process. First, an even movement toward a single price is detected in groups of large households (the standard price deviation of the price decreased in 2014–2020 from 2.7 to 1.9 euro per Giga Joule or 1.5 times) and medium industrial enterprises (the standard deviation decreased from 1.0-1.7 to 0.6-1.1 or 1.5-1.8 times). Second, the prices for the largest industrial enterprises in considered countries approached the fastest (the deviation decreased from 2.0 to 0.5). Third, in the segment of small enterprises, the deviation even increased from 2.1 to 2.2 (1.05 times). This result highlights the gap in the institutional mechanisms of European integration and sources of uncertainty for the small firms’ management.

Acknowledgment
The paper was funded as a part of the “Determination of institutional conditions for the development of the exchange segment of the gas market” research project (No. 0122U002205), conducted at the State Institution Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the NAS of Ukraine.