Yuliia Shapoval

The relevance of trust in the central bank is determined by the rapid growth of the gap between the expectations of a regulator and market participants regardless of the reforms carried out by the NBU. Therefore, the need to use the “non-traditional” monetary policy instruments has enhanced the role of verbal interventions in the context of inflation targeting. The aim of the article is to ground that trust causes adequate rational behavior of the market participants in response to the central bank’s communication policy. The type of this research is an explanatory research method. As determined, trust is the necessary condition for the effectiveness of the central bank’s communication strategy and it favors the achievement of proclaimed objectives. It is established that although since 2014 the NBU activated verbal interventions as an additional instrument to anchor expectations, the increase of transparency does not prompt the trust because of the lack of confidence of citizens in the NBU and high level of stress in the domestic financial sector. It is emphasized that the pursuit of inflation targeting requires expanded communication to gather the expectations of economic agents. The NBU, in its communication policy concerning the economic climate, underlines devaluation expectations, the exchange rate and explanations on the discount rate. However, the deviation of expected enterprises’ exchange rate from the actual exchange rate, growing velocity of money circulation against the declining share of funds involved in the banking system, low monetization level and low penetration of financial services evidence the distrust in monetary policy.

While financial inclusion is seen as a goal of socio-economic development, there is still no clear understanding of how to measure it. Following this concern, the paper deals with the computation of the financial inclusion index of the Ukrainian economy using an annual dataset spanning from 2008 to 2020 and following the Sarma methodology. The object of the study is a set of indicators of usage, access and quality of financial products and services. The obtained results demonstrate the medium level of financial inclusion. The improvement of financial inclusion is observed in 2012, 2013, 2020 (namely 0.55 – 0.56 in the range of 0 and 1). From 2015 (0.38) till 2018 (0.39), the revealed downward trend affirms that the withdrawal of banks from the market has deteriorated the level of quality and usage of financial products and services. Financial inclusion declined during the cleaning up of the banking system in 2014–2016, just as it did after the global financial crisis in 2009–2010. Despite the development of the payment infrastructure, there is a need to diversify access, increase quality, and quicken the usage of financial products and services due to existing distrust in national financial institutions. Improving financial literacy and consumer protection, and closing regulatory gaps in the non-banking sector are seen as ways to enhance financial inclusion. Thus, financial regulators should establish an upward trend in financial inclusion that will ensure full access to formal financial services and will not adversely affect the stability of financial system.

The intrinsic property of modern economic development is financial deepening in the light of incremental spearheading financial innovation opportunities. The paper deals with the relationship between financial depth, financial innovation, and economic growth among 22 OECD economies over 2007–2018 by applying pooled OLS and fixed effect panel data regression analysis. The purpose of the paper is to empirically test whether the economic growth depends on financial depth, financial innovation, and institutional environment (Worldwide Governance Indicators). The findings shed light on the recent discussion on the pros and cons of financial innovation. The estimation results show that while financial depth is a strong predictor of economic growth across high- and upper-middle-income economies, financial innovation is a slightly weaker predictor. Despite the identified positive impact of financial innovation on economic growth, it is asserted that the negative effect of financial depth may indicate oversaturated financial market in developed countries. Сonsistent with the general notion that the institutional framework promotes the capacity of the financial sector for financial innovations implementation, this paper states that financial depth and financial innovations are better prerequisites of economic growth than institutional development.

Acknowledgment
The paper was funded as a part of the “Relationship between financial depth and economic growth in Ukraine” research project (No. 0121U110766), conducted in the State Institution “Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the NAS of Ukraine”.

The rapid growth of financial deepening raises the problem of its effect, beneficial for economic development. This paper aims to demonstrate the relationship between economic growth (GDP per capita growth, GNI per capita) and financial depth (domestic credit to private sector and credit availability) in 142 countries, split into four income groups, over 2000–2020, using correlation analysis and data from the World Bank and the IMF. Besides, a comparative analysis of domestic credit to the private sector, economic freedom, Gini index, total government expenditure and national savings of countries that increased their income group status over 2011–2020 is presented. Financial deepening (increased credit availability and expansion of domestic credit to the private sector) encourages economic growth (via GNI per capita and GDP per capita growth). Although the presence of a nonlinear relationship between economic growth (GDP per capita growth) and financial depth (domestic credit to private sector and credit availability) over 1991–2020 is insufficient, there is a linear relationship between GNI per capita and credit availability, between credit availability and domestic credit to the private sector for the same sample of countries over 2000–2020. Meanwhile, there is a tendency towards a decrease in the correlation between GNI per capita and GDP per capita growth. Given the revealed linear correlation between domestic credit to the private sector and GNI per capita, financial deepening positively impacts income growth, and this dependence strengthens with increasing income levels. Target values of domestic credit to the private sector are proposed for the income group transition.

Acknowledgment
The paper was funded as a part of the “Relationship between financial depth and economic growth in Ukraine” research project (No. 0121U110766), conducted at the State Institution “Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the NAS of Ukraine”.

The pandemic and wartime in Ukraine confirmed the importance of cashless payments for financial stability. The purpose of the paper is to examine the effect of technological infrastructure and financial access factors on cashless economy development. The impact of the infrastructure factor is assessed in case of Ukraine, using NBU’s data on payment infrastructure during 2001–2022. The hypothesis of the boosting effect of financial access towards a cashless economy has been tested using the method of correlation between M0/M3 and different indicators of financial access (usage of essential technologies, financial services) based on data of World Bank, IMF, and Triple-A in 2021.
The study’s results show that globally there is an almost linear relationship between the number of open financial accounts and the increase in the level of cashless (0.954). It is also revealed that the rise of the share of the population making electronic payments decreases the share of cash in the economy. It is determined that the spread of the crypto-assets has a significant impact on the reduction of cash in the economy (an increase in the share of the population operating with cryptocurrencies by 1% reduces the share of cash by 0.5%). Regarding regulatory policies, it is proposed to stimulate the coverage of the population with open financial accounts, making mandatory payments with electronic payment systems and developing their infrastructure.

Assessing the effectiveness of the inflation targeting framework via the interest rate channel remains crucial in the current monetary policy debate. For Ukraine, the relevance of this discussion is enhanced by the adoption by the National Bank of a rigid inflation targeting policy since 2016, as well as by the challenges of price stability during war. The aim of the study is to identify how the discount rate affects the money market rates and how this affects inflation in Ukraine. Employing a VAR model on monthly data spanning 2016 – Q1 2022, the analysis demonstrates weak empirical evidence for the interest rate channel effectiveness. The impulse response indicates that the discount rate’s initial effect does not provide long-term inflation dynamics control. Variance decomposition analysis highlights the minimal influence of the NBU’s discount rate, primarily evident in the refinancing rate, followed by its impact on the rate of term deposits made by individuals, followed by the inflation, followed by the rate of new loans granted to residents, and finally the rate of government bond yields. Addressing the limitations of a rigid inflation targeting approach, the study recommends adopting a balanced approach, considering both price stability supported by exchange rate control measures and fostering economic growth. Additionally, a viable strategy for deepening the financial sector should be developed.

The impact of social transfers on income inequality and poverty remains a subject of debate, particularly regarding threshold effects, design, and integration with taxation and labor market dynamics. Using a linear regression model, the study analyzes the dependency of the Gini index on the percentage of social transfers in the average household’s monthly resources, the percentage of households with income below the median, and the percentage of the employed populace in Ukraine from 2010 to 2021. The results show that a 1% increase in social transfers in household income reduces income inequality by 0.13%, a 1% increase in employment decreases income inequality by 0.1%, whereas a 1% rise in poverty leads to a 0.34% increase in income inequality. In line with the results from EU and OECD countries, this study confirms that increasing the share of social transfers in household incomes contributes to the mitigation of income inequality in Ukraine. However, this remains valid only if the share of social transfers in households’ total income rises proportionally. The income and expenditure patterns of Ukrainian households, along with the Gini index, reflect poverty, which is partially mitigated by social transfers; however, their effectiveness is constrained by offsetting inflation. The rise in household incomes without a corresponding reduction in poverty suggests that employment is no longer the predominant factor in poverty alleviation in Ukraine.

Acknowledgment
This paper is funded as part of the project “Financial tools for reducing economic inequality in Ukraine” research project (No. 0124U002254), conducted at the State Organization “Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine”.

The paper builds on the existing literature on monetary policy frameworks, exploring their role in balancing price stability, economic growth, and social equity. The aim is to analyze the influence of macroeconomic, in particular monetary, factors on income inequality in Ukraine. Using annual data from 1999 to 2021, the study employs multiple regression analysis to assess the impact of inflation, unemployment, monetization, and the key policy rate on income inequality. The results indicate that inflation and unemployment significantly contribute to rising inequality, while increased monetization and higher key policy rates reduce it. The findings underscore the need for a monetary policy framework that not only targets inflation but also addresses employment, as unemployment has a delayed yet substantial effect on inequality. Although the negative correlation between monetization and inequality suggests that efforts to curb inflation could inadvertently increase inequality, it also indicates that enhancing financial inclusion through increased liquidity could produce positive redistributive effects. Given the limitations of inflation targeting, including its tendency to overlook employment objectives, delayed effects on inequality, and potential contradiction with financial inclusion goals, a flexible approach to inflation targeting may be a more effective strategy for reducing income inequality in Ukraine.