Mila Razinkova

Several specific features and circumstances can characterize Ukraine’s policy of external public debt management, and the results are not always unambiguous. The study aims to assess the effect of external public debt on Ukraine’s economy from 2014 to 2022, a period that includes the Crimea annexation, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the beginning of the open Russian military aggression. To analyze the contemporary state of public debt and assess the degree of external debt burden’s impact on the country’s economy, a factor analysis technique known as the principal components method was used. Via the STATISTICA.12 software, it was substantiated that the debt situation worsens with the growth of debt burden and solvency indicators as their values approach the thresholds. The application of the Kaiser criterion allowed the selection of the most influential indicators (principal components) for assessing the external debt burden. The eigenvalue of the first component (inflation rate) is 4.48, and it explains 50% of the variance; the second component (production of export-oriented goods) has an eigenvalue of 2.43, explaining 27% of the variance; the third component (government spending on military purposes) has an eigenvalue of 1.24, and it explains 14% of the variance.

This study undertakes a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of publications pertaining to the external public debt management system. The paper aims to study the evolution of scholarly discourse surrounding the external public debt management domain, highlighting contributions, methodologies, and collaborative networks within the field. The methodology encompasses a multivariate approach, incorporating extensive searches across the three major scientometric databases: Google Scholar (PoP), Scopus (in-built Scopus tools, SciVal), and Web of Science (in-built WoS instruments). The bibliometric analysis extends to contextual, evolutionary, and spatial dimensions, allowing for a comprehensive understanding of the identified clusters. The ensuing clusters serve as a roadmap, categorizing publications based on their contextual relevance, evolutionary trajectory, and spatial focus, which enhances the identification of key works in the field, facilitating a nuanced understanding of the current state of external public debt management research. The synthesis of findings from the content-contextual block emphasizes a primary orientation toward understanding the dynamic interplay between external public debt management and economic development. Furthermore, the contextual-temporal block identifies four distinct stages in the evolution of research focus, highlighting the shifting emphasis over time. A discernible pattern of heightened research activity in external public debt management across various countries in recent decades is revealed through spatiotemporal analysis. The interdisciplinary nature of this field is underscored by the dominance of economics, econometrics, finance, business, management, and accounting in dedicated research.

One of the tools of economic policy of any country is efficient public debt management, which influences and determines the dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators. The study aims to assess how public debt management affects Ukraine’s macroeconomic development. The analyzed period includes data of 2015–2021. Econometric modeling is used to establish the existence of causal relationships between the dynamics of public debt and changes in key macroeconomic indicators using the Granger causality test and VAR (Vector Autoregression) model. The obtained results demonstrate that during the study period, the strongest links existed between the public debt and GDP, debt servicing and Ukraine’s total state budget expenditures, public debt and consumer price index, real effective exchange rate index of the hryvnia to the US dollar, and political stability index. At the same time, the calculations proved that public debt does not have a significant impact on foreign direct investment and the level of imports of goods and services. The proposed model allows for forecasts for future periods and can be used in developing public debt management policy.