Assessing the progress of exports diversification in Saudi Arabia: growth-share matrix approach
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Received April 19, 2020;Accepted August 12, 2020;Published August 25, 2020
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Author(s)Link to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6323-032X
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DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.18(3).2020.10
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Article InfoVolume 18 2020, Issue #3, pp. 118-128
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Cited by1 articlesJournal title: Frontiers in Public HealthArticle title: Key Sectors in the Economy of Saudi ArabiaDOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.696758Volume: 9 / Issue: / First page: / Year: 2021Contributors: Said K. M. Brika, Brahim Adli, Khalil Chergui
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High dependence on a particular category of exports results in fluctuations in income as the price of the export item fluctuates. In Saudi Arabia, a single category of mineral exports forms over 78% of the total exports, exposing the country to revenue volatility. The study aims to assess the magnitude of diversification of the export basket for the country. It uses data from 1984 to 2018 to study the importance of non-mineral exports in total exports. It applies Granger causality, variance decomposition, and impulse response function in the vector autoregressive framework. The study also uses the growth-share matrix to evaluate individual items of non-mineral exports. The results show a long-run relationship with a 1% increase in non-mineral exports, leading to a 0.30% increase in total exports. Non-mineral exports Granger-cause total exports. In the long run, non-mineral exports have a share of 64% of the forecast error variance in total exports. Moreover, a 1% shock in non-mineral exports creates a huge initial impact on total exports. Also, the growth rate of non-mineral products is higher than mineral products. The results indicate the importance of non-mineral exports for a predominantly oil-exporting country. Finally, the study attempts to classify its non-mineral export categories based on growth rates and market shares. Targeted emphasis on export category with a strong growth rate and low market share can be an effective strategy for further export diversification.
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JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)F14, O53
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References27
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Tables10
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Figures3
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- Figure 1. Graphical presentation of the data (in million Riyals)
- Figure 2. Impulse response function
- Figure 3. Growth-share matrix
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- Table 1. Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests
- Table 2. VAR Lag order selection
- Table 3. Vector autoregression estimates
- Table 4. Least squares estimatesм
- Table 5. VAR Granger causality/block exogeneity Wald tests
- Table 6. Variance decomposition
- Table 7. VAR residual serial correlation LM tests
- Table 8. VAR residual normality tests
- Table 9. VAR residual heteroscedasticity tests
- Table 10. Descriptive statistics of the data
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Conceptualization
Mohammad Imdadul Haque
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Data curation
Mohammad Imdadul Haque
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Formal Analysis
Mohammad Imdadul Haque
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Investigation
Mohammad Imdadul Haque
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Methodology
Mohammad Imdadul Haque
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Mohammad Imdadul Haque
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Software
Mohammad Imdadul Haque
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Supervision
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Visualization
Mohammad Imdadul Haque
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Writing – original draft
Mohammad Imdadul Haque
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Writing – review & editing
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Conceptualization
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Cointegration between the European Union and the selected global markets following Sovereign Debt Crisis
Anna Golab , Ferry Jie , Robert Powell , Anna Zamojska doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.15(1).2018.05Investment Management and Financial Innovations Volume 15, 2018 Issue #1 pp. 35-45 Views: 1515 Downloads: 278 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯThe purpose of this paper is to provide an analytical analysis of cointegration between Europe and the other significant trading partners, namely US, China, Japan and Australia, for the period from January 1, 2010 to December 30, 2016. This captures the impact of the sovereign European debt crisis and the Greek crisis. A range of parametric techniques were adopted including Johansen cointegration analysis, Vector Error Correction Model and Granger causality. The results of the crisis Granger causality test during the European sovereign crisis implies the highest influence to be that of the US and Japanese stock market over the other four markets. Overall, found that the Asia-Pacific region plus the US stay closely related to each other, while European countries influence all the studied markets except each other. For the post-crisis sub-period, the Granger causality is slightly different. It is observable that the UK and Germany are influencing all the markets. This is probably due to the recent Brexit referendum outcome and potential consequences not only for the EU, but also for the rest of the world too. Overall, the Granger outcome shows the dependence between Europe and other global markets, but there is no European interdependence during the sovereign debt crisis period. It may be concluded that there is a separation of Asian markets from the European markets and even though cointegration exists, the relationship is rather weak.
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Nexus of bank personnel and cost-income ratio (CIR) in Nigeria
Odunayo Olarewaju , Olusola Olawale Olarewaju , Titilayo Moromoke Oladejo , Stephen Oseko Migiro doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/bbs.12(4-1).2017.04Banks and Bank Systems Volume 12, 2017 Issue #4 pp. 154-162 Views: 1108 Downloads: 210 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯThis study investigates the causal relationship between bank personnel ratio and the cost-income ratio based on performance in Nigeria for the period of 2004–2015. Secondary data collected on a cross section of 15 banks during this period was analyzed using panel unit root, cointegration and Granger causality techniques. A unit root test revealed that the variables are stationary at order one. The result further shows there is an equilibrium relationship or stability in the short and long run; furthermore, there is a bidirectional causal relationship between personnel ratio and cost-income ratio. Therefore, the study recommends that the apex bank should enforce policies in the banking sector that will minimize the unit cost of operation – even though they might hire more staff. This is to enhance the stability of the banks in Nigeria and to avoid any threat to their continuity.