Applying the LASSO method to predict the impact of tariff reductions on customs revenues in Vietnam

The world finds itself facing unprecedented conditions as the global pandemic of the COVID-19 virus has led to fundamental changes in the global supply chains. This paper aims to assess the initial response undertaken by Central European companies in the early stages of the outbreak. The survey was conducted as a research method to collect data from a large number of companies. Since it takes time to assess long-term effects of the pandemic and related measures, various changes in supply chains are examined as the early results of the COVID-19 crisis and measures implemented by companies. The study examines how different economy sectors were changed due to this situation. The changes in operating volumes were identified as the most commonly used measures to accommodate new market developments. However, developing the new supply chain partnership was the most successful measure. This measure correlates with an increase in revenues and an increase in the number of customers. In some cases, disruptions in supply chains had positive effects on revenues as a reaction to the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak. Cross-country examinations found that all Polish companies implemented at least one new measure to tackle this crisis. Nearly 20% of Slovak companies and nearly 30% of Czech companies made no changes in their operations during the early stages of the crisis. However, overall, the supply chains in Central European countries turned out to be quite resilient, since most companies managed to survive the supply chain disruptions and in some cases even show signs of overcoming them completely.

Acknowledgement
This contribution was supported by the project No. 1/0757/18, “Consumer behavior in buying goods of daily consumption with an emphasis placed different contents of goods offered on markets of selected EU countries”.

The public finance management system is an important lever for equalizing financial and budgetary disproportions in the context of institutional changes. The paper aims to substantiate the directions of development of the public financial management system. Economic and statistical methods and correlation-regression analysis methods are used to determine the relationship between the GDP deflator and the share of revenues, expenditures, the general government budget deficit, and public debt in GDP, assessing the features of the public financial management system in Ukraine and EU countries. This study reveals that one of the main restraining factors in the public finance system development is a significant level of uncertainty in economic processes, which intensifies macroeconomic fluctuations, significant indicators of the share of public debt and budget deficit of the state administration sector pose risks to financial and economic stability; their potential negative impact on socio-economic processes is much more destructive than the pro-cyclical nature of fiscal policy. From this point of view, the public finance management system should be directed at optimizing financial and budgetary tools to prevent the growth of public debt and budget deficit in gross domestic product, which determines the importance of substantiating further development directions of the public financial management system. It is concluded that the mechanism of public financial management in recent years is quite rigid and restrictive, in the context of institutional change expands the tools of public financial management and increases its impact on socio-economic processes.

Trade and investment have positive effects on economic growth and development, especially for developing countries, where trade openness could play a crucial role to eliminate poverty. But in the same way trade and investment can also harm the environment by producing GHG, pollutions and other environmental negative externalities. Since economic development, trade and environment are elaborately interconnected, it is indispensable to amalgamate environmentally affiliated issues on the development agenda. With expansion of economic activities and trade on the one hand and consequent threats to the environment on the other, the question of environment-friendly trade has emerged as a serious policy agenda in recent years. In that context, trade in climate smart goods (CSGs) is assumed to play a significant role in promoting sustainable development pathway. Given that China’s global trade is expanding at an unprecedented scale, the present paper is designed to analyze the trends and trading patterns of China’s trade in CSGs with the rest of the world. Based on the collected data covering the period of 1992 to 2016 from UN Comtrade, the analyses indicate that total trade in CSGs by China has been increasing, but its share in total trade volume is still very low. It is understood that China’s exports and imports of CSGs are dominated by a few products, namely photosensitive semiconductor devices (854,140), static converters (850,440), articles of plastic and arts of other material (392,690), photovoltaic system controller (853,710), discharge lamps, fluorescent (853,931), parts of electric motors, generators, generating sets and rotary converters (850,300), machine and mechanical appliance (847,989), other lead-acid accumulators (850,720), prism, mirrors and other optical elements unmounted (900,190), cooking appliances and plate warmers (732,111), gears and gearing, other than toothed wheels (848,340), other machinery, plant and equipment (841,989), filtering or purifying machinery and apparatus for gases (842,139), etc. While the major trading partners of China for CSGs are the USA, Japan, India, Malaysia, Germany, Korea Republic, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, the Netherlands, Hong Kong, Russia, Brazil, Australia, Pakistan, Israel, among others.