Olena Banchuk-Petrosova

An excessive increase in public debt characterizes the contemporary development of the global economic and financial system. The paper aims to examine the short- and long-run impact of state debt on economic growth in Nigeria. The model was estimated using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing method to co-integration for the long-run investigation. At the same time, the contemporaneous dynamics were explored using an unrestricted error correction model. The data were collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s statistical bulletins and annual reports, and it spanned the years from 1990 to 2020. The study uncovers evidence of a long-term link between the study variables. In addition, the study finds that all the explanatory is statistically significant. Specifically, economic growth is significant and negatively responsive to changes in external debt by 0.19% and debt servicing by 0.07%, contrary to its positive response to changes in domestic debt and exchange rate by 0.27% and 0.18%, respectively. The paper, therefore, recommends that government may consider more domestic borrowings to foreign borrowings that should only be resorted to when it is indispensable. Moreover, the government should also strive to balance loan servicing and the economic sustainability.

External public debt is not only a means of raising funds to finance public needs, but also an effective tool for stabilizing a country`s economic development, the assessment and analysis of which allows making effective management decisions at the state level and developing effective measures to improve the economic and debt situation. The paper aims to assess the impact of external public debt on Ukraine’s economic development indicators (GDP, foreign direct investment, foreign exchange reserves). In order to achieve the stated goal distributed lag models are used, which allow modeling a country’s economic development (according to key indicators) within certain forecast scenarios. The study covers the period from 2009 to 2021. An analysis of the dynamics of external public debt in Ukraine led to the conclusion about the unstable debt situation in Ukraine and a significant increase in external debt in recent years. Econometric models with a distributed lag of three years are built and the results of the influence of external public debt in different time periods are analyzed. The average lag in the built models is about one and a half years (for GDP) and two and a half years (for foreign direct investment). This value indicates that the average change (increase/decrease) in external public debt will change economic development over time. A positive conclusion is made on the possibility of not only assessing the time lag between the indicators, but also on the prospects for forecasting both the public debt and key indicators of Ukraine`s economic development.

Acknowledgment
The article was published as part of research projects “Convergence of economic and educational transformations in the digital society: modeling the impact on regional and national security” (No. 0121U109553) and “Reforming the lifelong learning system in Ukraine for the prevention of the labor emigration: a coopetition model of institutional partnership” (No. 0120U102001).