Assessment of the external debt impact on a country’s economic development indicators: Evidence from Ukraine
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.19(1).2022.28
-
Article InfoVolume 19 2022, Issue #1, pp. 360-369
- Cited by
- 797 Views
-
294 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
External public debt is not only a means of raising funds to finance public needs, but also an effective tool for stabilizing a country`s economic development, the assessment and analysis of which allows making effective management decisions at the state level and developing effective measures to improve the economic and debt situation. The paper aims to assess the impact of external public debt on Ukraine’s economic development indicators (GDP, foreign direct investment, foreign exchange reserves). In order to achieve the stated goal distributed lag models are used, which allow modeling a country’s economic development (according to key indicators) within certain forecast scenarios. The study covers the period from 2009 to 2021. An analysis of the dynamics of external public debt in Ukraine led to the conclusion about the unstable debt situation in Ukraine and a significant increase in external debt in recent years. Econometric models with a distributed lag of three years are built and the results of the influence of external public debt in different time periods are analyzed. The average lag in the built models is about one and a half years (for GDP) and two and a half years (for foreign direct investment). This value indicates that the average change (increase/decrease) in external public debt will change economic development over time. A positive conclusion is made on the possibility of not only assessing the time lag between the indicators, but also on the prospects for forecasting both the public debt and key indicators of Ukraine`s economic development.
Acknowledgment
The article was published as part of research projects “Convergence of economic and educational transformations in the digital society: modeling the impact on regional and national security” (No. 0121U109553) and “Reforming the lifelong learning system in Ukraine for the prevention of the labor emigration: a coopetition model of institutional partnership” (No. 0120U102001).
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)H60, H63, H68
-
References30
-
Tables4
-
Figures1
-
- Figure 1. Time series chart of Ukraine’s external public debt for 2009–2021, UAH million
-
- Table 1. Initial data for calculation for 2009–2021, USD mln.
- Table 2. Indicators of regression analysis of GDP/PD
- Table 3. Debt/FDI regression indicators
- Table 4. The obtained values for calculating the model with a distributed lag for external public debt and FX reserves for the period 2009–2021
-
- Baranovskyi, O. I. (2016). Doslidzhennia teoretychnykh zasad borhovoi bezpeky derzhavy [Research of theoretical bases of debt security of the state]. Scientific Bulletin of Ushhorod University. Series Economics, 1(47), 327-337. (In Ukrainian).
- Baz, D. V. (2016). Model dinaiki VVP Ukrainy s raspredelennym lagom [Model of Ukraine’s GDP dynamics with a distributed lag]. Visnyk studentskoho naukovoho tovarystva DonNU im. V. Stusa – Bulletin of student scientific society of DonNU named after V. Stus, 1(8). (In Russian).
- Bilozubenko, V., Yatchuk, O., Wolanin, E., Serediuk, T., & Korneyev, M. (2020). Comparison of the digital economy development parameters in the EU countries in the context of bridging the digital divide. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 18(2), 206-218.
- Bohdan, T. P. (2012). Borhova bezpeka ta yii rol u harantuvanni finansovoi stabilnosti [Debt security and its role in ensuring financial stability]. Bulletin of the National Bank of Ukraine, 4, 8-15. (In Ukrainian).
- Clements, B. (2003). External Debt, Public Investment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries. International Monetary Fund, 3, 249.
- Dabrowski, M. (2016). Fiscal Sustainability: Conceptual, Institutional, and Policy Issues. CASE Research Paper, 4-128.
- Filatova, H. P., & Zhuravka, F. O. (2020). Otsinka vplyvu pokaznykiv ekonomichnoho rozvytku na derzhavnyi borh Ukrainy [Assessment of the impact of economic development indicators on Ukraine’s public debt]. Aktualni problemy ekonomiky – Actual problems of economics, 12(233), 6-17. (In Ukrainian).
- Harris Maduku, & Brian Tavonga Mazorodze. (2021). Government expenditure and macroeconomic stability conundrum in Zimbabwe. Economics of Development, 20(2), 10-26.
- International Monetary Fund. (n.d.). Debt Sustainability – Proposal for an Operational Framework and Policy Implications.
- Karapetian, O., & Rybak, S. (2011). Borhova stiikist Ukrainy: kryterii otsiniuvannia ta osoblyvosti metodolohii [Debt sustainability of Ukraine: assessment criteria and methodology specifics]. Visnyk Ternopilskoho natsionalnoho ekonomichnoho universytetu – Bulletin of Ternopil National Economic University, 3, 49-57. (In Ukrainian).
- Koziuk, V. V. (2002). Derzhavnyi borh v umovakh rynkovoi transformatsii ekonomiky Ukrainy [Public debt in the conditions of market transformation of Ukraine’s economy] (238 p.). Ternopil: Kart-blansh. (In Ukrainian).
- Kozmenko, S.М., Korneyev, M.V., & Makedon, V.V. (2014). Finansializatsiya ekonomiky ta yy vplyv na indykatory sotsialno-ekonomichnoho rozvytku okremykh krayn [Financialisation of economy and its influence on the indicators of countries’ socioeconomic development]. Aktualni problemy ekonomiky – Actual problems of economics, 161(11), 290-298. (In Ukrainian).
- Kumar, M., & Woo, J. (2010). Public Debt and Growth (IMF Working Paper 10/174).
- Kuzkin, Y., Cherkashyna, T., Nebaba, N., & Kuchmacz, B. (2019). Economic growth of the country and national intellectual capital (evidence from the post-socialist countries of the central and eastern Europe). Problems and Perspectives in Management, 17(1), 348-359.
- Kuznichenko, Y., Frolov, S., Zhuravka, F., Yefimov, M., & Fedchenko, V. (2018). Regulatory assessment of the bank market risk: international approaches and Ukrainian practice. Banks and Bank Systems, 13(4), 73-84.
- Lisovenko, V. V. (2014). Derzhavnyi borh: kontseptualni zasady ta makroekonomichni aspekti [Public debt: conceptual bases and macroeconomic aspects]. Finances of Ukraine, 12, 7-31. (In Ukrainian).
- Ministry of Finance of Ukraine. (n.d.). Derzhavnyi ta harantovanyi derzhavoiu borh Ukrainy [State and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine]. (In Ukrainian).
- Muhammad Mustapha Abdullahi, Nor Aznin Bt. Abu Bakar, & Sallahuddin B. Hassan. (2015). Determining the Macroeconomic Factors of External Debt Accumulation in Nigeria: An ARDL Bound Test Approach.
- Novosiolova, O. (2014). Borhova bezpeka yak vyznachalnyi faktor makroekonomichnoi stabilnosti derzhavy [Debt security as a determinant of a country’s macroeconomic stability]. Collection of scientific papers ChDTU. Series Economic sciences, 35(1), 123-128. (In Ukrainian).
- Presbitero, А. (1992). Fiscal policy in an endogenous growth model. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107, 1243-1259.
- Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2010). Growth in a Time of Debt (NBER Working Paper No. 15639).
- Shkolnyk, I., Pisula, T., Loboda, L., & Nebaba, N. (2019). Financial crisis of real sector enterprises: an integral assessment. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 16(4), 366-381.
- Slavyuk, N. R. (2010). Borgovi kryzy v krainakh Yevropeiskoho Soyuzu. Finansovo-kredytna diialnist: problemy teorii i praktyky [Debt crises in the EU countries. Financial and credit activity: problems of theory and practice]. Collection of scientific papers, 1(12), 248-253. (In Ukrainian).
- World Bank. (n.d.). Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative.
- World Bank. (n.d.a). International Debt Statistics.
- Yashchenko, L. O. (2014). Prohnozuvannia derzhavnoho borhu na osnovi dokhodiv ta vydatkiv derzhavnoho biudzhetu Ukrainy [Forecasting of public debt based on revenues and expenditures of Ukraine’s state budget]. Statistics of Ukraine, 2, 14-19. (In Ukrainian).
- Yefimenko, T. I., Yerohina, S. A., & Bohdan, T. P. (2014). Borhova stiikist derzhavnykh finansiv [Debt sustainability of public finances] (712 p.). Kyiv: DNNU Akad. fin. upravlinnia. (In Ukrainian)
- Zhuravka, F., Filatova, H., & Aiyedogbon, J. (2019). Government debt forecasting based on the Arima model. Public and Municipal Finance, 8(1), 120-127.
- Zhuravka, F., Filatova, H., Podmarov, O., Aldiwani, K., & Shukairi, F. (2018). State’s debt sustainability management: case of Ukraine. Public and Municipal Finance, 7, 1-7.
- Zhuravka, F., Filatova, H., Šuleř, P., & Wołowiec, T. (2021). State debt assessment and forecasting: time series analysis. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 18(1), 65-75.