Ihor Rekunenko

The paper investigates discretionary budget expenditure and determines its role in the system of regulation of country’s socio-economic development. In a very difficult political and socio-economic situation, Ukraine faces an urgent need to finda balance between the amount of functions performed by the state and the level of their financial support. The analysis of the State Budget of Ukraine expenditure according to the functional classification in 2014–2017 has been carried out. In particular, the discretionary budget expenditures (on state functions, economic activity, defense budget expenditures, budget expenditure on public order, security and judiciary; environmental protection, housing and utilities) are carefully analyzed. The purpose of the article is to study trends in financing discretionary budget expenditure and determine their impact on the socio-economic development of a country. Discretionary budget expenditures are the study object. It is determined that socio-economic development of a country requires government to apply progressive forms, methods and principles of expenditure management between the budget system levels. This need is due to the objective necessity to achieve sustainable development of economy and population welfare. The main problems that reduce budget discretionary expenditure effectiveness in the current conditions are investigated and the main directions to improve their financing are offered. The obtained results indicate the need to revise the funding of discretionary budget expenditures depending on the state policy priorities.

The development of the corporate securities market and the effective use of tools for its regulation cannot be achieved without models and methods of economic and mathematical modeling. The aim is to analyze and systematize the structural and temporal characteristics of the corporate securities market in Ukraine by applying economic and mathematical modeling methods. In the paper, linear interpolation is used to assess the temporal characteristics of corporate securities under market uncertainty. Descriptive and simulation modeling methods are also applied to carry out a formal description of the process of evaluating the structural characteristics of securities. The result of the study involves developing a descriptive model to analyze the structural and temporal characteristics of the Ukrainian corporate securities market. The approbation of the proposed model makes it possible to draw the following conclusions. First, Perspektiva Stock Exchange, Ukrainian Exchange and PFTS – the First Stock Trading System, are the most important trading platforms. They are determined by the monthly bidding dynamics and can belong to the same group – active players in the corporate securities market of Ukraine. Second, in terms of endogenous priorities, the development of the corporate securities market is mostly influenced by inflation rates (consumer price index), economic development indicators (key branches production index) and interest rates on alternative financial instruments (new deposit interest rates of deposit-taking corporations). Third, the rate of corporate securities issue and the native currency rate do not significantly affect the corporate securities market development, in particular, the former is characterized by a slight negative impact, and the latter – by a slight positive impact on the price dynamics.

Financial security of a country is an integral part of its economic security and the basis of national security. The paper aims to assess and forecast the level of Ukraine’s financial security using two methodological approaches (the existing one and the authors’ elaboration) to choose the best alternative. The first one is based on the Methodology of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine. The alternative one has been developed as a multiplicative model of non-linear convolution of relevant direct and indirect impact indicators, considering the opportunity and risk, which is based on a combination of a power function and the Harrington method. A database of input indicators was formed with further differentiation according to their impact on Ukraine’s financial security. The research results demonstrated that during 2013–2019 Ukraine’s financial security integrated index was cyclical and constantly changing. A comparison of the existing methodology and the developed model demonstrated a certain discrepancy between the obtained results. It was substantiated that the proposed multiplicative non-linear convolution model for assessing and forecasting the state’s financial security is more relevant, includes current indicators sorted by their direct and indirect impact, and adjusts them according to the risk of impact on overall security in the country.

The study reviews the application of machine learning tools in financial investment portfolio management, focusing on cluster analysis for asset allocation, diversification, and risk optimization. The paper aims to explore the use of clustering analysis to broaden the concept of portfolio diversification beyond traditional volatility metrics. An open dataset from Yahoo Finance includes a ten-year historical period (2014–2024) of 130 actively traded securities from international stock markets used. Dataset selection prioritizes top liquidity and trading activity. Python analytical tools were employed to clean, process, and analyze the data. The methodology combines classical Markowitz optimization with clustering analysis techniques, highlighting variance-return trade-offs. Various asset characteristics, including annualized return, standard deviation, Sharpe ratio, correlation with indices, skewness, and kurtosis, were incorporated into the clustering models to reveal hidden patterns and groupings among financial assets. Results show that while clustering enhances insights into asset diversity, classical approaches remain historically superior in optimizing risk-adjusted returns. This study concludes that clustering complements, rather than replaces, classical methods by broadening the understanding of diversification and addressing many diversity factors, such as metrics of the technical, graphical, and fundamental analysis. The paper also introduces the diversity rate based on clustering, which measures the variance balance by all features within and between clusters, providing a broader perspective on diversification beyond traditional metrics. Future research should investigate dynamic clustering techniques, integrate fundamental economic indicators, and develop adaptive models for effective portfolio management in evolving financial markets.

The correlation between macroeconomic dynamics and the inflation rate is the subject of many economic studies. The principles of monetary policy are developed in classical economics studies, which are based on the theories of Keynes, Phillips, Campbell, etc. However, classic approaches require practical validation, especially with regard to modern economic trends in times of crisis and emerging economies. Therefore, the purpose of the paper is to investigate and summarize the impact of inflation targeting and other key monetary policy instruments on fundamental economic indicators in Ukraine during periods of stability and crises. An empirical analysis is based on official statistics from Ukraine for 2011–2019. This study uses econometric methods (multivariate regression and simultaneous equation model), which are applied for the general and transmission impact of inflation on the estimation of economic growth. The results prove that inflation does not affect (less than 0.46 linear correlation) fundamental economic indicators during periods of real GDP growth and a quarterly CPI level of less than 2%. On the other hand, there are significant simultaneous regressions (more than 0.8 coefficients of determination) between unemployed, spending on real final consumption, hryvnia exchange rate and monetary policy instruments (discount rate, international reserves, amount of government bonds, M3 monetary aggregate) for periods when the quarterly CPI (consumer price index) is more than 2%. Therefore, the traditional monetary policy implications are discussed for emerging economies.