GovTech maturity and digital payment adoption in transition economies: Delayed associations and divergent deployment models

  • 20 Views
  • 2 Downloads

Creative Commons License DMCA.com Protection Status
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
Digital government platforms are expected to accelerate the shift to cashless payments, and banks stand between the two: they hold the accounts that digital credentials open and process the government-to-person and person-to-government flows that digital services generate. Cross-country evidence for transition economies remains scarce and largely contemporaneous. The study aims to determine whether digital government maturity is associated with the uptake of cashless payment instruments contemporaneously or with a delay, and whether the deployment model shapes that association beyond aggregate index scores. Wave panels combining the Global Findex database (2011–2024) with the UN E-Government Development Index for eleven transition economies were estimated using pooled, fixed-effects, between-country, lagged, and first-difference specifications, supplemented by an exploratory annual panel of ATM density and a structured comparison of three deployment models. A strong cross-country association between GovTech maturity and both digital payment adoption (0.551, p < 0.001) and account ownership (0.730, p < 0.001) did not survive within-country identification: fixed-effects coefficients turned negative and insignificant, so H1-H3 are not supported. With a four-to-five-year lag, the Online Service Index entered positively and significantly in the baseline specification (0.290, p < 0.05); as significance is not retained with controls, the evidence is consistent with a delayed association rather than establishing it. Adoption expanded under all three deployment models, from 47% to 85% in Kazakhstan, 48% to 83% in Ukraine, and 12% to 61% in Armenia; what distinguished the cases was the interface between the state and private bank ecosystems, which aggregate indices do not capture.

Acknowledgment
Liudmyla Zakharkina’s contribution to this article was made within the framework of the research project “GovTech for Ukraine: A Digital, Secure, Transparent, and Equitable State in Times of War and Post-War Reconstruction” (registration number: 0126U000544), funded by the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine.

view full abstract hide full abstract
    • Figure 1. Digital payment adoption in the focal countries against the regional background, 2014–2024
    • Figure 2. GovTech maturity (Online Service Index) in the focal countries against the regional background, 2010–2024
    • Table 1. Descriptive statistics
    • Table 2. GovTech maturity and digital payment adoption (H1)
    • Table 3. GovTech maturity and account ownership (H2)
    • Table 4. GovTech maturity and payment infrastructure: levels and first differences (H3)
    • Table 5. Lagged and first-difference specifications (H4)
    • Table A1. Sample composition
    • Conceptualization
      Liudmyla Zakharkina, Svitlana Stender, Olena Lahovska, Оleksandr Mosin, Yuliia Pereguda, Perizat Buzaubayeva, Aghavni G. Hakobyan
    • Formal Analysis
      Liudmyla Zakharkina, Svitlana Stender, Olena Lahovska, Оleksandr Mosin, Perizat Buzaubayeva, Aghavni G. Hakobyan
    • Investigation
      Liudmyla Zakharkina
    • Methodology
      Liudmyla Zakharkina
    • Validation
      Liudmyla Zakharkina, Svitlana Stender, Olena Lahovska, Yuliia Pereguda, Aghavni G. Hakobyan
    • Writing – original draft
      Liudmyla Zakharkina, Svitlana Stender, Olena Lahovska, Оleksandr Mosin, Yuliia Pereguda, Perizat Buzaubayeva, Aghavni G. Hakobyan
    • Writing – review & editing
      Liudmyla Zakharkina, Svitlana Stender, Olena Lahovska
    • Data curation
      Svitlana Stender, Оleksandr Mosin, Yuliia Pereguda, Aghavni G. Hakobyan
    • Software
      Svitlana Stender, Оleksandr Mosin, Yuliia Pereguda, Aghavni G. Hakobyan
    • Resources
      Olena Lahovska, Оleksandr Mosin, Yuliia Pereguda, Perizat Buzaubayeva
    • Visualization
      Olena Lahovska, Оleksandr Mosin, Yuliia Pereguda, Aghavni G. Hakobyan
    • Project administration
      Perizat Buzaubayeva
    • Supervision
      Perizat Buzaubayeva