Digital governance, systemic shocks, and banking sector integrity in transition economies

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Type of the article: Research article

Abstract
In transition economies, banking sector integrity is a critical prerequisite for economic resilience against exogenous shocks. This study evaluates the direct and indirect transmission channels through which public digital governance and systemic crisis shocks relate to banking stability and financial inclusion across 22 transition economies. Utilizing structural equation modeling (SEM) and path analysis based on annual panel data from 2003 to 2024 – supplemented by latent factor analysis, Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality tests, and post-estimation Wald tests – we analyze structural macro-level associations. Empirical results show that the static factor association between digital governance and banking stability is positive but marginally significant (β = 4.102, p = 0.079). In short-run dynamic first-difference specifications, no statistically significant immediate responsiveness is observed (β = 0.027, p = 0.516). Concurrently, improved banking stability significantly co-moves with financial inclusion (β = 0.042, p = 0.008), driven primarily by non-performing loan suppression (λ = −3.684, p = 0.018) and corruption control (λ = 0.034, p = 0.006). Systemic crisis shocks persistently depress both banking stability (β = −0.130, p = 0.009) and citizen financial engagement (β = −0.027, p < 0.001). Post-estimation Wald tests confirm cross-regional slope homogeneity (χ2(1) = 0.48, p = 0.487 for governance-to-stability; χ2(1) = 0.03, p = 0.855 for stability-to-inclusion). Contrary to conventional assumptions, public digital governance does not act as an immediate countercyclical shock absorber, highlighting the necessity of pairing digital reforms with long-term structural policies.

Acknowledgments
Oleksii Zakharkin’s contribution to this article was prepared as part of a research project funded by the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine, titled “GovTech for Ukraine: A Digital, Secure, Transparent, and Equitable State in Times of War and Post-War Reconstruction” (registration number: 0126U000544).

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    • Table 1. Periodization of macroeconomic and local shocks and their classification in the stress resilience assessment model
    • Table 2. Descriptive statistics of key financial and governance indicators (2003–2024)
    • Table 3. Results of factor analysis for constructing latent indicators
    • Table 4. Results of panel stationarity tests (LLC, IPS, Fisher-ADF)
    • Table 5. Baseline static SEM model (latent factor specifications in levels)
    • Table 6. Results of the lag* SEM model (DGI → BSII → RFIEI) on the average values
    • Table 7. Robustness analysis of short-run dynamic effects across alternative SEM specifications (L0–L3)
    • Table 8. Effects of digital governance (DGI) and crisis periods (D_Crisis) on banking stability (BSII) and revealed financial inclusion and engagement (RFIEI)
    • Table 9. Structural effects of the SEM model by regional groups
    • Conceptualization
      Altynay Assanova, Anatolii Melnychuk
    • Methodology
      Altynay Assanova, Rysty Sartova, Rostyslav Shchokin
    • Supervision
      Altynay Assanova, Narek M. Kesoyan, Rysty Sartova
    • Visualization
      Altynay Assanova, Oleksii Zakharkin, Anatolii Melnychuk
    • Writing – original draft
      Altynay Assanova, Oleksii Zakharkin, Narek M. Kesoyan, Rostyslav Shchokin
    • Formal Analysis
      Oleksii Zakharkin, Narek M. Kesoyan, Rostyslav Shchokin
    • Funding acquisition
      Oleksii Zakharkin, Galiya Dauliyeva
    • Resources
      Oleksii Zakharkin, Galiya Dauliyeva, Anatolii Melnychuk
    • Software
      Oleksii Zakharkin, Galiya Dauliyeva
    • Investigation
      Narek M. Kesoyan, Rostyslav Shchokin
    • Validation
      Narek M. Kesoyan, Rostyslav Shchokin
    • Data curation
      Galiya Dauliyeva, Rysty Sartova
    • Writing – review & editing
      Galiya Dauliyeva, Rysty Sartova, Anatolii Melnychuk
    • Project administration
      Rysty Sartova, Anatolii Melnychuk