Liliana Smiech

The study examines the long-term relationships between human development, economic growth, and environmental conditions in South Korea from 1996 to 2021. Understanding these interactions is crucial for shaping policies that balance economic progress, social well-being, and environmental sustainability. The analysis employs cointegration techniques, including the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Canonical Cointegration Regression (CCR) methods, to estimate long-run relationships among GDP per capita, the Human Development Index (HDI), and carbon dioxide emissions per capita. Empirical findings confirm a stable long-term equilibrium between GDP and HDI, as demonstrated by significant Engle-Granger and Phillips-Ouliaris test statistics (p-values ≤ 0.0245). The results suggest that economic growth consistently enhances human development, while improvements in HDI contribute to sustained economic progress. The relationship between HDI and carbon emissions per capita, however, yields mixed evidence. The Engle-Granger test supports a long-term association (p-values ≤ 0.015), but the Phillips-Ouliaris test does not confirm cointegration (p-values ≥ 0.112). The covariance matrix test indicates that the negative relationship between HDI and carbon emissions per capita is stronger and more variable compared to the more stable inverse association between HDI and GDP per capita. Additionally, Granger causality analysis reveals a significant causal relationship between HDI and GDP per capita, supported by a Chi-square value of 20.627 and a p-value below 0.001. These findings highlight the complexity of integrating environmental considerations into development policies. South Korea’s experience underscores the necessity of a balanced policy framework that ensures sustainable economic growth while advancing human development and mitigating environmental impacts.

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
The paper aims to develop and adapt an econometric model for assessing and forecasting the impact of household energy efficiency and renewable energy deployment on reducing energy poverty in Ukraine. Due to the lack of updated statistical data after 2022 caused by the war, the adapted model was tested using pre-war data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and the World Bank for 2002–2021. As access to some pre-war datasets was also restricted for security reasons in Ukraine, proxy indicators were applied, allowing adaptation to limited information conditions. The modeling results showed that a 1,000 USD increase in GDP per capita reduces the share of the population living below the national poverty line and, accordingly, the energy-poor population, by 3%. Conversely, a 1% increase in gross capital formation raises the energy poverty level by 0.5%, indicating no direct impact of investment in physical capital, including expenses on energy-efficiency measures, on household welfare. Household expenditures on utilities and the share of renewable energy in total energy consumption were found to be statistically insignificant. The study confirms that household income remains the dominant determinant of energy poverty, while improvements in energy efficiency and renewable energy development play supportive but not yet decisive roles. These findings highlight the need to integrate social and energy policies to raise household incomes, improve access to renewable technologies, and promote energy efficiency measures. The developed model offers a tool for enhancing state policies to alleviate energy poverty under wartime constraints and in post-war recovery.

Acknowledgments
This study was funded by the National Research Foundation of Ukraine within the project “Formation of economic mechanisms to increase energy efficiency and provide sustainable development of renewable energy in Ukraine’s households” (No. 0122U001233).

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
This study aims to assess a macroeconomic methodological approach for evaluating the impact of investment activity, energy efficiency, energy costs, and renewable energy development on CO₂ emissions in Ukraine, using the model’s insights for a conceptual extrapolation to the residential sector with subsequent policy scaling to the municipal building stock. The methodological basis is a top-down approach using econometric modeling (OLS) for 2002–2021, which represents the pre-war period in Ukraine. All estimations are based on aggregated macroeconomic proxy indicators and not on direct residential or municipal emissions measurement data due to a lack of reliable information. The results demonstrate that macroeconomic energy efficiency is the most powerful driver of decarbonization. An analysis of the residential sector indicates that higher household financial burdens associated with higher utility expenditures are statistically connected with lower CO₂ emissions, which may reflect demand-side adjustments in energy consumption, including price-driven savings. However, other factors, such as energy inefficiency or energy poverty, may also add to this relationship. In contrast, traditional investment activity still contributes to growing carbon footprints, with CO₂ emissions rising by 136 kg per 1% increase in gross capital formation as a share of GDP. At the same time, the estimated coefficients for global oil prices and the share of renewable energy exhibit the expected negative signs, suggesting economically meaningful long-term decarbonization tendencies. However, these relationships do not reach conventional statistical significance and should therefore be interpreted as directional trends rather than statistically confirmed effects.

Acknowledgments
This paper is funded by the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine within the projects “Comprehensive vertically integrated intelligent system for monitoring and regulating energy supply in municipal sector buildings” (No. 0126U000867) and “Drivers and barriers to human capital transformation for a circular and green economy” (No. 0126U001080).