Post-debt relief governance and debt sustainability in Somalia: A systematic review and debt sustainability analysis
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Author(s)Mohamed Isse IbrahimLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3720-5678
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Abdulkadir Mohamed NurLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0009-0002-3314-8063
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Ali Yassin Sheikh AliLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6348-6920
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Ismail Mohamed AliLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0009-0001-4123-5194
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DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/pmf.15(3).2026.05
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Article InfoVolume 15 2026, Issue #3, pp. 57-78
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Type of the article: Research Article
Abstract
This study examines Somalia’s post-debt relief governance and debt sustainability to identify the institutional and fiscal reforms needed to preserve debt sustainability in fragile states. This study adopts a mixed-methods approach that combines a qualitative systematic literature review with a debt sustainability analysis by using the IMF-World Bank Low Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC DSF). Somalia’s debt position improved markedly after HIPC relief: external debt declined from 64 % of GDP in 2018 to 6.4 % in 2023 and is projected to remain below 6 % of GDP during 2024-2028. In the baseline scenario, the present value of external debt averages about 5 % of GDP, well below the 30 percent threshold for countries with weak debt-carrying capacity. Debt service indicators also remain low, with debt service-to-exports below 1.2 % and debt service-to-revenue below 4.5 % through 2028. Standardized stress tests, by contrast, push debt service above its indicative ceilings, which supports a moderate rather than a low-risk rating. Yet many peer countries in Sub-Saharan Africa still face precarious debt positions, with numerous low-income nations at high risk or already in debt distress. Sustaining this outlook will depend on continued governance reforms, fiscal discipline, and transparent borrowing that strengthen institutional capacity and resilience to future shocks.
- Keywords
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JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)H63, F34, O55
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References93
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Tables8
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Figures3
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- Figure 1. Somalia’s external debt-to-GDP ratio before and after debt relief
- Figure 2. Debt relief pathway from IMF re-engagement to HIPC completion
- Figure 3. Article review process
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- Table 1. Global thresholds and benchmarks for public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt
- Table 2. Themes plot
- Table 3. Somalia: coverage of the public sector
- Table 4. Somalia: contingent-liability parameters for the combined stress test
- Table 5. Somalia: debt-carrying capacity classification
- Table 6. Sensitivity of debt sustainability indicators to GDP changes, 2024-2028 (% of the GDP, unless otherwise indicated; GDP assumptions based on the current LIC-DSA)
- Table A1. Post-relief debt risk across HIPC countries
- Table A2. Systematic review of strategic debt management and post-HIPC debt governance
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Debt sustainability analysis and its policy implications for Ukraine
Tetiana Bogdan
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/pmf.13(2).2024.17
Public and Municipal Finance Volume 13, 2024 Issue #2 pp. 204-219 Views: 2975 Downloads: 610 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯSince the outbreak of the russian invasion in 2022, Ukraine’s public debt has risen sharply, and debt sustainability turned out to be a matter of concern. This study aims to conduct a comprehensive debt sustainability analysis (DSA) for Ukraine, focusing on probabilistic judgments about the trajectory of public debt, the government’s gross financing needs in the 2025–2028 period, and essential policy measures to prevent an unsustainable debt situation. The DSA incorporates references to quantitative debt-related benchmarks and assessments of performing a debt treatment and changing the structure of budget deficit financing. Four medium-term scenarios are run: a baseline scenario, a negative scenario, a positive macro-scenario, and a policy shock scenario. The first three scenarios yield public debt stocks from 94.8% to 128.8% of GDP in 2028, above the intermediate threshold of 82% and far above the final threshold of 65%. Even under the baseline projections, public debt trajectory and gross financing needs magnitudes deviate considerably from the benchmark levels. Only the policy shock scenario is compatible with ensuring public debt sustainability, being conditional on a substantial extension of foreign grants, and applying a significant haircut through the second debt restructuring. The results suggest that avoiding public debt crisis while meeting recovery and reconstruction needs would require raising the share of grants up to around 45% in the structure of foreign official financing and debt reduction by at least 50% in the framework of new foreign debt restructuring, covering official bilateral debt and euro-bonds’ debt.
Acknowledgment
This study is published as an output of the EURIZON project “Ukraine’s Foreign Financing Needs and the EU’s Role in Restoring External Sustainability and Long-Term Growth of the Ukrainian Economy,” which is funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No. 871072. -
State’s debt sustainability management: case of Ukraine
Fedir Zhuravka 
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Hanna Filatova ,
Oleksandr Podmarov ,
Khaled Aldiwani ,
Fathi Shukairi
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/pmf.07(4).2018.01
Public and Municipal Finance Volume 7, 2018 issue #4 pp. 1-7 Views: 2344 Downloads: 562 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯNowadays one of the relevant problems of economic development of Ukraine is the excessive increasing of the public debt that has a number of negative consequences for the financial system of the country. The article is devoted to the research of state’s debt sustainability concept. Special attention is paid to the development of an effective system of debt sustainability management. The aim of the article is to study the theoretical bases of the state’s debt sustainability, investigate scientific and methodological approaches to its management, analyze the public debt and debt sustainability of Ukraine. In order to achieve that goal, the following scientific methods were used: analysis and generalization, decomposition analysis, comparison and compilation. The authors analyzed the structure of the debt sustainability management system: objects, subjects, key principles, objectives, methods, instruments, etc. The list of key indicators of debt sustainability was substantiated and the authors compared their normative values in Ukraine and in world practice. Besides, the state and structure of public debt and the ratio of government debt to GDP were scrutinized. The obtained results proved the debt crisis deepening in Ukraine.
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Government debt forecasting based on the Arima model
Fedir Zhuravka ,
Hanna Filatova ,
John O. Aiyedogbon
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/pmf.08(1).2019.11
Public and Municipal Finance Volume 8, 2019 Issue #1 pp. 120-127 Views: 2148 Downloads: 1042 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯThe paper explores theoretical and practical aspects of forecasting the government debt in Ukraine. A visual analysis of changes in the amount of government debt was conducted, which has made it possible to conclude about the deepening of the debt crisis in the country. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) is considered as the basic forecasting model; besides, the model work and its diagnostics are estimated. The EViews software package illustrates the procedure for forecasting the Ukrainian government debt for the ARIMA model: the series for stationarity was tested, the time series of monthly government debt was converted into stationary by making a number of transformations and determining model parameters; as a result, the most optimal specification for the ARIMA model was chosen.
Based on the simulated time series, it is concluded that ARIMA tools can be used to predict the government debt values.
