Cross-sectional mediation evidence with panel robustness checks of economic complexity, logistics performance, and country innovation, 2020–2024

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Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
This study examines whether logistics performance mediates the relationship between economic complexity and national innovation outcomes. The sample comprises the top-20 economies of the Global Innovation Index (2025) and Ukraine, observed over 2020–2024. The mediation model is estimated on the 2024 cross-section (n = 21) using OLS and the Baron–Kenny procedure. Cross-sectional point estimates indicate an indirect effect via the Logistics Performance Index of 7.585 GII points, 46.3% of the total effect (c = 16.366, p < 0.001), while the software–expenditure channel fails the Baron–Kenny conditions. The pooled panel corroborates the channel: the indirect effect equals 6.551 points (52.0% of the total effect), with the LPI–GII path highly significant (p < 0.001). Sensitivity analysis shows that the mediation is identified primarily by the contrast between the innovation frontier and Ukraine: excluding Ukraine, the ECI–LPI path loses significance while the LPI–GII path remains robust, consistent with saturation of the logistics channel within the frontier, where LPI varies only between 3.6 and 4.3. The bootstrap confidence interval for the indirect effect includes zero at n = 21, so the mediation findings are suggestive rather than confirmatory. Fixed-effects estimation shows that the ECI–GII relationship is predominantly structural (within-R2 = 0.056), while LPI retains within-country significance (β = 3.60, p = 0.042). An illustrative arithmetic scenario translates Ukraine’s LPI gap to the sample median into approximately 16 GII points. Findings position logistics infrastructure as a first-order margin for catching-up economies seeking to convert productive complexity into innovation capacity.

Acknowledgments
This research contains results of the research “Fundamentals of Sustainable and Inclusive Regional Spatial Development for Post-War Reconstruction in the Context of Digital Transformation” (№ 0125U001620, 2025-2027) funded by a grant from the state budget of Ukraine.

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    • Table 1. Descriptive statistics (cross-section 2024, n = 21)
    • Table 2. Pearson correlation matrix (n = 21, cross-section 2024; n = 105 for full-panel row)
    • Table 3. OLS regression results: Models M1–M4 (cross-section 2024, n = 21)
    • Table 4. Baron–Kenny mediation analysis (cross-section 2024, n = 21)
    • Table 5. Robustness verification matrix
    • Table 6. Effect size analysis and robust SE comparison (M3, n = 21)
    • Table 7. Breusch–Pagan homoscedasticity test: OLS Models M1–M3 (n = 21, 2024)
    • Table 8. Pooled panel mediation estimation, 2020–2024 (year fixed effects; country-clustered SE)
    • Table A1. Dataset
    • Conceptualization
      Artem Bilovol, Svitlana Tarasenko, Liudmyla Saher
    • Data curation
      Artem Bilovol, Wojciech Duranowski, Arkadiusz Durasiewicz
    • Formal Analysis
      Artem Bilovol, Svitlana Tarasenko, Liudmyla Saher
    • Funding acquisition
      Artem Bilovol, Svitlana Tarasenko, Liudmyla Saher, Wojciech Duranowski, Arkadiusz Durasiewicz
    • Investigation
      Artem Bilovol, Svitlana Tarasenko, Arkadiusz Durasiewicz
    • Methodology
      Artem Bilovol, Svitlana Tarasenko, Liudmyla Saher
    • Project administration
      Artem Bilovol, Svitlana Tarasenko, Wojciech Duranowski
    • Resources
      Artem Bilovol, Arkadiusz Durasiewicz
    • Software
      Artem Bilovol, Svitlana Tarasenko, Liudmyla Saher, Wojciech Duranowski
    • Supervision
      Artem Bilovol, Svitlana Tarasenko, Wojciech Duranowski
    • Validation
      Artem Bilovol, Liudmyla Saher, Arkadiusz Durasiewicz
    • Visualization
      Artem Bilovol, Svitlana Tarasenko, Liudmyla Saher
    • Writing – original draft
      Artem Bilovol, Svitlana Tarasenko, Liudmyla Saher
    • Writing – review & editing
      Artem Bilovol, Svitlana Tarasenko, Liudmyla Saher, Wojciech Duranowski, Arkadiusz Durasiewicz