Foresight technologies of economic systems: evidence from the tourism sector of Ukraine

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Nowadays, it is imperative to use forecasting technologies that are most likely to predict the development of economic systems. Foresight technologies based on a combination of strategic analysis and forecasting of key indicators provide a high level of probability of achieving certain results and contribute to shaping conditions for their achievement. Among economic systems, tourism sector is the most vulnerable to the negative impact of the global pandemic. In 2020, its revenues fell by 70%, leading to an unprecedented crisis. Accordingly, questions arise about the Ukrainian tourism sector’s ability to use the crisis as a prerequisite for recovery and growth.
Based on the results of a two-round survey using the Delphi method among experts (56 at the first stage and 42 at the second) representing various tourism directions for Ukraine’s tourism sector up to 2030, six strategic development priorities were formed. Key indicators were identified, such as contribution to GDP (7-8%), place in the global tourism competitiveness rating (60-70th position among 140 countries), and average annual growth rate of international arrivals (5-10%). It has been determined that in case of the end of the world pandemic, the Ukrainian tourism sector can achieve the indicators of “pre-crisis” functioning in 1-3 years.
The proposed architectonics of the foresight platform in the context of digitalization of network communications will ensure the adoption of management decisions to develop Ukraine’s tourism sector in the domestic and international markets. It will strengthen its position, image, and strategic sustainability in the markets for tourist services.

Acknowledgment
The paper reflects the results of the authors in the framework of studies conducted in 2018–2020 at the Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics by order of the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine (Paradigmatic and Conceptual Shifts in the Economic Theory of the 21st Century) (Q1 2018 – Q4 2020; state registration number 0118U000126), and Formation of the National Brand of Ukraine in the International Environment (Q1 2018 – Q4 2020; state registration number 0118U000127)).

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    • Figure 1. Architectonics of the foresight platform of Ukraine’s tourism sector
    • Figure 2. Structural and logical sequence of the tourism sector foresight
    • Figure 3. Generalization of the experts’ answers in a foresight study on the restoration of Ukraine’s tourism sector according to the consequences of COVID-19
    • Figure 4. Generalization of experts’ answers within the framework of foresight researh on the priority of Ukraine’s tourism sector development trends
    • Figure 5. Foresight of Ukraine’s tourism sector up to 2030
    • Table 1. Foresight potential for determining the strategic landmarks of the Ukrainian tourism sector
    • Table 2. Dynamics of the main indicators of the Ukrainian tourism sector (TS) development for 2012–2018
    • Table 3. SWOT analysis of Ukraine’s tourism sector
    • Table 4. Comparative advantages, challenges and risks of Ukraine’s tourism sector
    • Table 5. Foresight studies of the impact of technological trends on tourism sector
    • Conceptualization
      Svitlana Melnychenko, Margarita Boiko, Alla Okhrimenko
    • Data curation
      Svitlana Melnychenko, Margarita Boiko, Myroslava Bosovska
    • Methodology
      Svitlana Melnychenko, Margarita Boiko, Alla Okhrimenko
    • Project administration
      Svitlana Melnychenko, Margarita Boiko
    • Validation
      Svitlana Melnychenko, Margarita Boiko, Alla Okhrimenko, Nataliia Mazaraki
    • Writing – review & editing
      Svitlana Melnychenko, Alla Okhrimenko, Nataliia Mazaraki
    • Investigation
      Margarita Boiko
    • Supervision
      Margarita Boiko, Myroslava Bosovska
    • Writing – original draft
      Margarita Boiko, Alla Okhrimenko, Myroslava Bosovska
    • Formal Analysis
      Alla Okhrimenko, Myroslava Bosovska, Nataliia Mazaraki
    • Visualization
      Alla Okhrimenko, Myroslava Bosovska
    • Resources
      Myroslava Bosovska, Nataliia Mazaraki
    • Funding acquisition
      Nataliia Mazaraki