Evaluating the threat to national information security

  • Received June 10, 2020;
    Accepted August 28, 2020;
    Published September 9, 2020
  • Author(s)
  • DOI
    http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.18(3).2020.17
  • Article Info
    Volume 18 2020, Issue #3, pp. 195-210
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

An effective strategy for managing the national information security with capabilities to resist information threats significantly impacts its further development. This study aims to assess the level of threat to the information security of countries based on the integral index. It is proposed to use five indicators characterizing individual areas of information security and 37 world development indicators, selected from the World Bank database. Correlation analysis selected 12 out of 37 development indicators relevant to security indicators for which the correlation coefficient exceeded 0.5 or –0.5. The Harrington-Mencher function is proposed to determine the information security threat index. Nonlinear normalization was carried out to bring the initial data to a comparable measurement. Canonical analysis was performed to determine the indicator weights. The data from 159 countries were taken for 2018 to assess the index. The result was presented on the map showing countries’ distribution by the information security threat index, thus forming five groups. The group with a “very well” resistance to threats includes economically developed countries with a high level of information security. The “well” group was formed by new industrial and developing countries with economic potential sufficient to prevent information threats and combat their consequences. The information security level in developing countries, where the results of overcoming information threats will affect the economic sphere, is defined as “acceptable”. Countries with a low level of development and information security formed groups designated as “bad” and “very bad”, which indicates a high level of threats to their information security.

Acknowledgment
This work is carried out with in the tax payer – funded researches: No. 0118U003574 “Cybersecurity in the banking fraud enforcement: protection of financial service consumers and the financial and economic security growth in Ukraine”.

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    • Figure 1. Bibliometric map constructed based on keywords from publications on the Scopus database
    • Figure 2. Results of correlation analysis
    • Figure 3. Graph of the second type of the curve for GDP per capita
    • Figure 4. Graph of the first type of curve for Control of corruption: estimate
    • Figure 5. Map of the distribution of countries according to the information security threat index
    • Table 1. Quantitative and qualitative interpretation of the information security threat level index
    • Table 2. Normalized components of the information security threat index (fragment)
    • Table 3. Results of canonical analysis
    • Table 4. The values of components of the information security threat index reduced to the dimensionless Harrington desirability scale (fragment)
    • Table 5. Calculations of Harrington-Mencher transformation values (fragment)
    • Table 1A. World Development Indicators
    • Conceptualization
      Hanna Yarovenko
    • Data curation
      Hanna Yarovenko
    • Formal Analysis
      Hanna Yarovenko
    • Funding acquisition
      Hanna Yarovenko
    • Investigation
      Hanna Yarovenko
    • Methodology
      Hanna Yarovenko
    • Project administration
      Hanna Yarovenko
    • Resources
      Hanna Yarovenko
    • Software
      Hanna Yarovenko
    • Supervision
      Hanna Yarovenko
    • Validation
      Hanna Yarovenko
    • Visualization
      Hanna Yarovenko
    • Writing – original draft
      Hanna Yarovenko
    • Writing – review & editing
      Hanna Yarovenko