Causality of external population migration intensity and regional socio-economic development of Ukraine

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The Carpathian Region (Zakarpattia, Lviv, Chernivtsi, and Ivano-Frankivsk) is inferior to other regions in Ukraine regarding its economic development, which does not contribute to migration stability and, rather, serves as a factor motivating the active part of the population to emigrate. The problem of the labor market disproportions in the Carpathian Region is one of the significant causes of the formation and subsequent implementation of migration intentions, especially in rural areas, less economically developed areas, and district centers, where labor demand is much lower. The research aims to develop an innovative approach to calculating the intensity of the population’s external migration based on the introduction of a correction coefficient, which enables to consider the scale of transit migration in the Carpathian Region. The data presented in the study were collected for the period 2005–2018. Granger causality analysis is used to assess the relationship between migration and socio-economic development of the region. The analysis reveals that in all regions of the Carpathian Region, there is a short-run causal relationship between the intensity of external migration and the share of total household expenditure on food; in the medium run, the real household income, the size of the average monthly wages, and the volume of foreign portfolio investment, the foreign economic activity and retail trade turnover in the region; in the long run, living standards and indicators of economic growth. Future studies may require a more diverse set of indicators to evaluate the causal relationship in other regions of Ukraine, which will provide the integrity of the results of Granger causality analysis.

Acknowledgment
The research has been conducted within the framework of applied research ‘Migration Activity of the Population of the Carpathian Region’ (Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Reg. No. 0119U002010, 2019–2021).

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    • Figure 1. External population migration intensity by regions in the Carpathian Region, 2008–2018
    • Table 1. Indicators of socio-economic development of the Carpathian Region
    • Table 2. Number of Ukrainian citizens who emigrated from the Carpathian Region in 2008–2018
    • Table A1. Granger causality interaction between population migration and social development of the Carpathian Region, 2008–2018
    • Table A2. Granger causality interaction between population migration and economic development of the Carpathian Region, 2008–2018
    • Table A3. The causal relationship between population migration and social and economic development of the Carpathian Region
    • Conceptualization
      Olha Mulska, Volodymyr Panchenko, Taras Vasyltsiv
    • Data curation
      Olha Mulska, Olha Levytska, Volodymyr Panchenko, Maryana Kohut
    • Formal Analysis
      Olha Mulska, Olha Levytska
    • Investigation
      Olha Mulska, Olha Levytska, Volodymyr Panchenko, Maryana Kohut, Taras Vasyltsiv
    • Methodology
      Olha Mulska, Olha Levytska
    • Visualization
      Olha Mulska, Olha Levytska, Maryana Kohut
    • Writing – original draft
      Olha Mulska, Olha Levytska, Taras Vasyltsiv
    • Writing – review & editing
      Olha Mulska, Olha Levytska
    • Supervision
      Taras Vasyltsiv