Management and comprehensive assessment of the probability of bankruptcy of Ukrainian enterprises based on the methods of fuzzy sets theory

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Managing and evaluating the probability of bankruptcy of Ukrainian enterprises is one of the most complex and relevant problems of the economy and management. In the context of Ukraine’s integration into the international space, there is an arising issue of assessing the bankruptcy of Ukrainian enterprises that meets international financial standards and allows administering this process. A qualitative assessment of the bankruptcy of an enterprise is possible only using artificial intelligence methods – the fuzzy sets method, which allows including qualitative and quantitative indicators to the model for assessing bankruptcy of enterprises in Ukraine. The aim of the article is to improve the existing method for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of Ukrainian enterprises on the basis of the fuzzy sets method, which will include indicators of international financial reporting and allow more efficient administration and management of this process. The subject of the research is the process of formalizing the method of the enterprise bankruptcy assessment in accordance with the indicators of International Financial Reporting Standards. The study offers a mechanism for a comprehensive assessment of the probability of bankruptcy of Ukrainian enterprises with the use of the methods of fuzzy sets, which is based on international financial indicators: current ratio, payable turnover ratio, equity turnover ratio, return on assets, equity-to-debt ratio. The mechanism allows quickly managing bankruptcy conditions. In order to administer the economic activity of the bankrupt enterprises, based on the theory of a fuzzy sets, a system of enterprises management takes into account the international financial reporting.

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    • Figure 1. The matrix of normalized values of indicators for assessment of the conditional enterprise bankruptcy probability
    • Figure 2. Decision support system for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of enterprises
    • Table 1. Experts answers to a question: “What value of the current ratio indicates a high risk of bankruptcy?”
    • Table 2. Classification of financial indicators
    • Table 3. System of indicators for assessment of the conditional enterprise bankruptcy probability