GDP modelling: assessment of methodologies and peculiarities of its usage in Ukraine

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GDP is one of the main indicators determining the level of economic growth in countries and regions across the globe, therefore, its calculation should be based on the advanced methodology. In the present context, the existing methods of the GDP calculation do not fully meet the fineness criterion subject to certain objective and subjective reasons. Hence, the development of more perfect methodology that takes into account the disadvantages of the existing techniques and is based on economic and mathematical modeling is an urgent national task for Ukraine. The purpose of the article is to assess the GDP calculation methodology used in Ukraine. To achieve this purpose, the relevant methods of GDP calculation, which are valid in Ukraine, have been analyzed, their specifics, certain drawbacks, problems of use and application scenarios have been also revealed. According to the analysis results, an advanced methodology based on an economic and mathematical model with the use of dynamic programming is proposed. The developed methodology for calculating the GDP takes into account the peculiarities of social development in Ukraine and the tendencies of world economic processes and contributes to obtaining more reliable GDP values. It will be useful for experts in financial institutions, including international ones, and scholars working in the macroeconomic modeling area.

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    • Figure 1. Algorithm for conducting the research on formation of the methodology of GDP modelling
    • Figure 2. Comparing the GDP dynamics according to different calculation scenarios
    • Figure 3. GDP structure according to economic sectors in 2017
    • Figure 4. Influence of social system constituents on GDP
    • Figure 5. Influence of social system factors on GDP
    • Figure 6. Logic and structural model for GDP forecasting
    • Table 1. Analysis of basic macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine