Problems and forecast of the development of the Russian fuel and energy complex: the factorial approach

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Existing forecasts of Russian energy sector development have a number of general provisions and differ in approaches to their construction. The most realistic forecast is made within the framework of the Energy Strategy of Russia for the period up to 2035. However, the dynamism and high uncertainty of economic processes, international relations, domestic policy and the rapid growth of scientific and technical progress need a systematic correction of any forecast. The purpose of the article is to develop theoretical provisions and practical recommendations for making a forecast for the development of the Russian fuel and energy complex based on the application of the factor approach.
The forecasting results are used in the development of management decisions, therefore, the authors of the article take into account the influence of various factors while making the forecast, but they (factors) are all quantitatively commensurable. To make a reliable forecast, the internal environment of the research object is studied in detail, organizational and economic problems in the development of the Russian fuel and energy complex are revealed, and methods for their elimination are suggested. The external environment is also analyzed and trends in the development of world energy markets are revealed. To forecast the state of the fuel and energy complex, an integral indicator is chosen reflecting the level of its technical and economic development.

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    • Figure 1. Macroeconomic indicators of the fuel and energy complex of Russia in 2000–2016
    • Figure 2. Matrix of factors for forecasting the development of the fuel and energy sector
    • Figure 3. Performance issues of the fuel and energy complex of Russia
    • Figure 4. The correlation share of R&D expenditures in GDP and the energy intensity of GDP in different countries
    • Table 1. Factors determining the development of the fuel and energy complex of Russia
    • Table 2. Initial data for the regression analysis
    • Table 3. Key directions for the development of the fuel and energy complex of Russia