Structural imbalances in Ukraine’s financial market and their interrelationship with the effectiveness of state regulation in 2020–2024

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Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
The relevance of the study lies in the fact that maintaining the financial stability of the banking sector does not always ensure the recovery of lending to the real economy. The article aims to identify and quantitatively assess structural imbalances in Ukraine’s financial market during 2020–2024 and to substantiate priority areas for improving state regulation, considering the relationships among banking-sector asset growth, capitalization, and lending intensity. The article frames this problem in the context of wartime financial system transformation, where regulatory policy must balance preserving systemic resilience with restoring banks' credit function and supporting economic recovery.
The methodological basis of the study includes structural-dynamic analysis, correlation-regression modeling, and the calculation of an aggregated financial stability indicator based on official data from the National Bank of Ukraine and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The results show that the growth of banking-sector assets and capital in 2020–2024 was accompanied by a substantial decline in the loan-to-deposit ratio – from 67.6% in 2021 to 39.4% in 2024. Regression estimates indicate an inverse relationship between bank asset growth and credit transformation, suggesting that resources were primarily directed toward liquid, low-risk instruments rather than lending to the real economy. It is concluded that compliance with capitalization requirements supports macrofinancial stability but does not guarantee lending activity recovery.
Improving state regulation effectiveness requires targeted credit incentives for banks, developing partial credit guarantee mechanisms, differentiating regulatory requirements by asset structure, expanding refinancing programs for productive lending, and strengthening control over the allocation of bank liquidity to the real economy.

Acknowledgment
The study did not receive any special funding from the government, commercial, or non-profit organizations. The authors would like to thank their colleagues for their professional comments and academic support during the study. The statements expressed in the article are solely the responsibility of the authors.

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    • Figure 1. Dynamics of the assets of the Ukrainian banking sector, UAH billion (at the end of the period)
    • Figure 2. Dynamics of the capital of the Ukrainian banking sector, UAH billion (at the end of the period)
    • Table 1. Key indicators of financial stability of Ukrainian banks, 2021–2024 (at the end of the period)
    • Table 2. Capitalization ratio of the Ukrainian banking sector in 2020–2024
    • Table 3. Correlation matrix of indicators “assets – capital – lending” (2021–2024)
    • Conceptualization
      Andriy Tymoshenko
    • Formal Analysis
      Andriy Tymoshenko
    • Data curation
      Andriy Tymoshenko, Yulia Tymoshenko
    • Methodology
      Andriy Tymoshenko, Yulia Tymoshenko
    • Project administration
      Andriy Tymoshenko
    • Resources
      Andriy Tymoshenko, Yulia Tymoshenko
    • Writing – original draft
      Andriy Tymoshenko, Yulia Tymoshenko
    • Writing – review & editing
      Andriy Tymoshenko, Yulia Tymoshenko
    • Funding acquisition
      Yulia Tymoshenko
    • Investigation
      Yulia Tymoshenko
    • Visualization
      Yulia Tymoshenko