Analyzing the effect of financial development on economic growth – the Jordanian experience


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This study came to inspect the impact of the development of both financial market and banking system on the economic growth of Jordan based on the annual data covering the period 1993–2017. Through the use of many methodologies: Johansen cointegration test, (VECM), and Granger causality test, where real GDP was used as an indicator of economic growth, the real market value of stocks (Market Capitalization) (LCAP) and Share Turnover (LTURN) are indicators for the financial market, Money supply in the broad concept (LM2), and Local domestic credit (LCR) are indicators for the banking sector.
The results of this study reported that the study variables are stationary, and in the level of order 2, they are integrated, and a long-run relationship between the study variables existed according to the Johansen co-integration test. VECM model result and the target model result confirm a short-run causality running from the all variables toward GDP. Granger causality test underline a single directional causality running from variables of our study to GDP and denote the short-run impact between LCAP, LTURN, LM2, LCR, and LGDP. The analysis of the variance decomposition shows that the development of the banking system affects economic growth almost equally with the impact of the development of the financial market. The results go to the same line of supply-leading hypothesis.

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    • Table 1. Unit root tests results
    • Table 2. The lag length selection criterion
    • Table 3A. Trace test
    • Table 3B. Maximum Eigenvalue test
    • Table 4. The co-integration equation results
    • Table 5A. The results of VECM
    • Table 5B. Target model estimation
    • Table 6. Granger causality test results
    • Table 7. VD of LGDP results