Forecasting the level of financial security of the country (on the example of Ukraine)

  • Received July 26, 2018;
    Accepted September 12, 2018;
    Published September 20, 2018
  • Author(s)
  • DOI
    http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.15(3).2018.25
  • Article Info
    Volume 15 2018, Issue #3, pp. 304-317
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In the conditions of functioning of economic relations, which arise between subjects of the financial system of Ukraine, the question of creating safe conditions for their activity is increasingly being raised. Attention is paid to the investigation of the state of financial security of the country as a component of economic security, in terms of its key elements, which allows attention to the most important indicators and to develop measures to prevent existing threats.
The purpose of the paper is to forecast the level of financial security of the country based on regression analysis of impacts factors. The object of the study is the financial system as a mechanism, which is aimed at the activities of financial security subjects of the country to ensure its proper level. As a result of the regression analysis, it was found that changing in the country’s banking security by 1% will decrease the overall financial security index by 0.04 points, while the non-banking market will grow by 0.07 and the monetary component will decrease by 0.51.
Based on the calculation of the arithmetic mean of absolute deviations of independent variables, the estimated value of Ukraine’s financial security level is calculated, which is 40.09% in 2018.
Proposals for improving the “Methodological Recommendations for Calculating the Level of Economic Security of Ukraine” will help to solve the problem of mathematical substantiation of the choice of indicators for assessing financial security, minimize risks, eliminate subjectivity and improve the efficiency and the quality of the country’s financial security assessment methodology.
The article deals with the issues of the financial component of economic security as the main element of ensuring sustainable financial development of the country.

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    • Figure 1. Weighted coefficients of the components of economic and financial security
    • Figure 2. Results of construction of a multiple correlation-regression model of financial security of the country
    • Figure 3. Graphic representation Y and Ym of the total financial security of the country in the period 2013–2017
    • Figure 4. Results of the forecast of Ukraine’s financial security level in 2018
    • Table 1. Indicators of banking security and security of the non-bank financial market of Ukraine in the period 2013–2017
    • Table 2. Indicators of debt, budget and currency security of Ukraine in the period 2013–2017
    • Table 3. Indicators of monetary security of Ukraine in the period 2013–2017
    • Table 4. Dynamics of the general level of financial security of Ukraine and its components in the period 2013–2017
    • Table 5. Ukraine in the system of international ratings in 2017
    • Table 6. Rating of financial security of Ukraine according to the Ukrainian methodology for assessing the financial and economic security