Theoretical foundations of algorithmic pricing in the short-term rental market

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Type of the article: Theoretical Article

Abstract
The shift towards the “product as a service” paradigm requires adaptive pricing tools. The article aims to conceptualize AI-driven algorithmic pricing methods for short-term rentals and to validate them through simulation modelling as a synthetic proof of concept. The methodology distinguishes conceptual evaluation – structural-functional and SWOT analyses – from empirical simulation. The proposed framework of the actual demand-probability model uses a logistic function as a deep learning-based predictive model (MLP) within an explicit revenue-maximization procedure. While the MLP is trained to minimize prediction error in latent demand, the forecast WTP serves as a critical input to a bounded search module that calculates the revenue-maximising price. The algorithmic model demonstrates a significant uplift in simulated gross booking revenue relative to the Static, Rule-Based, and Random Forest benchmarks, based on 100 Monte Carlo repetitions. A deep learning-based predictive model with an average cumulative revenue of USD 7,307.42 outperforms the Random Forest model with high statistical significance and achieves a high win rate across simulated scenarios. Probability-based algorithmic pricing mitigates the risks of resource downtime. The sensitivity analysis confirms MLP model stability across varying consumer price elasticities. AI-driven pricing is positioned as a scalable, systemic digital technology for coordinating economic processes in modern platform industries.

Acknowledgments
This research was funded by a grant from the state budget of Ukraine, “Fundamental grounds for Ukraine’s transition to a digital economy based on the implementation of Industries 3.0; 4.0; 5.0” (No. 0124U000576) and “Digital Economy and Renewable Energy: Building Sustainable Business Models for Ukraine’s Post-War Reconstruction” (No. 0126U000877).

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    • Figure 1. Comparative structure of traditional and algorithmic pricing models
    • Figure 2. Evolution of revenue management systems: from yield management to AI-driven solutions
    • Figure 3. Comparison of static and algorithmic pricing models
    • Figure 4. Cumulative revenue under static and algorithmic pricing.
    • Figure 5. Gross simulated booking revenue (100 Monte Carlo iterations)
    • Figure 6. Impact of price elasticity (k)
    • Figure 7. Functional structure of the application of artificial intelligence in algorithmic pricing
    • Figure 8. Benefits and risks of algorithmic pricing
    • Table 1. Transformation of the cost model: from linear economy to algorithmic economy based on AI PaaS
    • Table 2. Summary of key performance indicators across 100 Monte Carlo simulations (92-day horizon)
    • Table 3. Architecture comparison and ablation study results
    • Table 4. Types of price discrimination in algorithmic pricing
    • Table 5. Pricing strategies of short-term rental platforms
    • Conceptualization
      Leonid Melnyk, Yuliia Rozghon, Lyudmila Kalinichenko, Olena Nifatova
    • Data curation
      Leonid Melnyk, Oleksandr Kubatko, Olena Nifatova
    • Formal Analysis
      Leonid Melnyk, Yuliia Rozghon, Lyudmila Kalinichenko, Oleksandr Kubatko, Kseniia Bliumska-Danko
    • Methodology
      Leonid Melnyk, Lyudmila Kalinichenko, Oleksandr Kubatko
    • Supervision
      Leonid Melnyk
    • Writing – original draft
      Leonid Melnyk, Yuliia Rozghon, Lyudmila Kalinichenko, Oleksandr Kubatko, Olena Nifatova, Kseniia Bliumska-Danko
    • Writing – review & editing
      Leonid Melnyk, Yuliia Rozghon, Lyudmila Kalinichenko, Oleksandr Kubatko, Olena Nifatova, Kseniia Bliumska-Danko
    • Funding acquisition
      Yuliia Rozghon
    • Resources
      Yuliia Rozghon
    • Software
      Yuliia Rozghon, Oleksandr Kubatko
    • Validation
      Yuliia Rozghon, Oleksandr Kubatko, Olena Nifatova
    • Project administration
      Lyudmila Kalinichenko
    • Investigation
      Oleksandr Kubatko, Kseniia Bliumska-Danko
    • Visualization
      Olena Nifatova, Kseniia Bliumska-Danko