Digital infrastructure and the efficiency, productivity and stability of banking sectors in transition economies

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Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
Between 2005 and 2024, the digital divide separating former Soviet economies outside the EU from EU member states shrank from 44.8 to 2.4 points of a composite 0–100 index, and whether banking systems converted this catch-up into better performance is an open question. The paper evaluates the intermediation efficiency and productivity of banking in 24 transition economies during 2010–2024 and quantifies their relationship with digital infrastructure, paying special attention to Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine. Efficiency is measured with input-oriented window DEA on deposit funding, operating costs, lending, and profitability; productivity with Malmquist indices; and digital infrastructure with a principal-component index of internet, mobile, and broadband penetration. The estimation relies on two-way fixed effects with Driscoll-Kraay and bootstrap inference on 356 country-year observations. Productivity is flat overall with a Malmquist mean of 0.995, yet technological change moves from below unity through 2015 to above unity in 2016–2023, a regime shift robust to the output set and the translation constant. Within countries, the index is unrelated to efficiency levels, productivity growth, cost efficiency, and stability outcomes; the baseline cost-to-income and credit-risk associations dissolve under country-specific trends and differencing. Cumulative productivity reaches 1.162 in Kazakhstan and 1.106 in Armenia by 2024, while Ukraine climbs back to 0.856. Frontier renewal after 2016, rather than a measurable dividend from connectivity, is the substantive finding, and expectations of direct efficiency or stability gains from digital infrastructure should remain modest, particularly in postwar Ukraine.

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    • Figure 1. Digital Infrastructure Index by country group, 2005–2024 (sample means)
    • Figure 2. Window DEA efficiency scores, focus economies and EU benchmarks, 2010–2024
    • Figure 3. Malmquist productivity index and its components, annual geometric means, 2011–2024
    • Figure 4. Cumulative Malmquist productivity index, focus economies and sample average (2010 = 1)
    • Table 1. Descriptive statistics of the variables, 24 transition economies, DEA estimation sample 2010–2024
    • Table 2. Window DEA efficiency scores by country and sub-period, 2010–2024
    • Table 3. Malmquist productivity index and its decomposition by country, 2010–2024 (geometric means)
    • Table 4. Determinants of bank intermediation efficiency, two-way fixed effects estimates, 2010–2024
    • Table 5. Channel regressions for cost efficiency, profitability and productivity
    • Table 6. Digital infrastructure and financial stability outcomes
    • Table A1. Sample composition, group membership and focus economies
    • Table B1. Variable definitions, sources and coverage
    • Table C1. Correlation matrix of the main variables, 2005–2024
    • Table D1. Second-stage inference for the efficiency regression under the DEA-generated dependent variable
    • Conceptualization
      Aliya Myrzabekovna Atenova, Vahe Mikayelyan, Diana Sitenko, Sergii Khrapatyi, Gaukhar Uvakbayeva, Viktoriia Makarovych, Kateryna Sochka
    • Data curation
      Aliya Myrzabekovna Atenova, Diana Sitenko, Viktoriia Makarovych, Kateryna Sochka
    • Formal Analysis
      Aliya Myrzabekovna Atenova, Vahe Mikayelyan, Gaukhar Uvakbayeva, Viktoriia Makarovych
    • Resources
      Aliya Myrzabekovna Atenova, Diana Sitenko, Sergii Khrapatyi, Viktoriia Makarovych
    • Software
      Aliya Myrzabekovna Atenova, Vahe Mikayelyan, Sergii Khrapatyi, Kateryna Sochka
    • Validation
      Aliya Myrzabekovna Atenova, Vahe Mikayelyan, Sergii Khrapatyi, Gaukhar Uvakbayeva, Viktoriia Makarovych, Kateryna Sochka
    • Writing – original draft
      Aliya Myrzabekovna Atenova, Vahe Mikayelyan, Diana Sitenko, Sergii Khrapatyi, Gaukhar Uvakbayeva, Viktoriia Makarovych, Kateryna Sochka
    • Methodology
      Vahe Mikayelyan, Diana Sitenko, Sergii Khrapatyi, Gaukhar Uvakbayeva, Viktoriia Makarovych
    • Visualization
      Vahe Mikayelyan, Diana Sitenko, Sergii Khrapatyi, Kateryna Sochka
    • Writing – review & editing
      Vahe Mikayelyan, Sergii Khrapatyi, Gaukhar Uvakbayeva
    • Investigation
      Diana Sitenko, Viktoriia Makarovych, Kateryna Sochka
    • Project administration
      Gaukhar Uvakbayeva
    • Supervision
      Gaukhar Uvakbayeva