Exchange rates: the influence of political and economic events. а fundamental analysis approach

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The objective of the article is to study the influence of political and economic factors on the situation on the world foreign exchange market, substantiate the importance of fundamental analysis in forecasting currency rates. The concept and mechanisms of functioning of the world currency market, its assets and specific features in comparison with other financial platforms are considered in the article. The need for special attention to fundamental analysis during the periods of global political and economic events is grounded. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of the leading world currency pairs in recent years, the period from October 2016 to April 2017 was chosen for an analysis because that period is full of significant events in the world political and economic arena, which are powerful levers of the traders’ behavior, and hence the direction of the dynamics of key currency pairs. These events are as follows:

  • presidential elections in the USA;
  • two increases of the Federal Reserve rate; and
  • the policy of the European Central Bank, aimed at stimulating inflation.

It is substantiated that using the fundamental analysis makes it possible to assess the trend and scale of changes in the rates of the world currencies, and in combination with technical analysis is an integral tool for successful trading and forecasting the dynamics of currency pairs. The possibility of using the mechanisms of functioning of such fundamental analysis tool as artificial neural networks and the ways of their application in solving such problems has been considered.

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    • Figure 1. Dynamics of the EUR/USD pair at the beginning of October 2016
    • Figure 2. Dynamics of the dollar index at the beginning of October 2016
    • Figure 3. The EUR/USD pair rate jump on the day of the US presidential election (November 8, 2016)
    • Figure 4. The impact of the increase in the discount rate of the US Federal Reserve (December 14, 2016) on the EUR/USD pair rate
    • Figure 5. Dynamics of the dollar index from November 2016 to April 2017
    • Figure 6. Dynamics of the EUR/USD pair from November 2016 to April 2017
    • Figure 7. Dynamics of the GBP/USD pair from October 2016 to April 2017
    • Table 1. Cases of currency fluctuations that are not amenable to technical analysis, divided by groups of fundamental analysis factors