Assessment of financial and economic security of Ukraine in conditions of foreign banking development

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The article assesses the influence of foreign banks on the financial and economic security of Ukraine. A scientific and methodological approach to the determination of the influence of foreign banks on the financial and economic security of the state using the correlation and regression analysis as well as scenario approach is offered. Such approach reflects mutual links between the indicators of foreign banking and the main indicators of financial and economic security of Ukraine. On the basis of analysis of foreign banking development, the indicators of financial and economic security of Ukraine have been forecasted. Positive and negative consequences of such influence in conditions of cyclic and crisis development of the national economy and bank system have been substantiated.

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    • Figure 1. The sequence of the correlation and regression analysis of the influence of foreign banking indicators on the main indicators of financial and economic security of Ukraine
    • Figure 2. Trend analysis of foreign banks capital and commitments via construction of diagram reflecting the linear trend
    • Figure 3. Trend analysis of growth rates of foreign banking indicators via construction of diagram reflecting the linear trend
    • Figure 4. Trend analysis of foreign banks assets and financial performances via construction of diagram reflecting the linear trend
    • Table 1. Matrix of pair correlations for factor indicators (х) of the model after the multi-collinearity check
    • Table 2. The results of the correlation regression analysis of the indicators of financial and economic security of the state as influenced by foreign banking indicators and verification of the regression model adequacy
    • Table 3. The value of independent variables for predicting their influence on the indicators of financial and economic security of Ukraine by different scenarios
    • Table 4. The results of predicting the influence of foreign banking indicators on the basic indicators of financial and economic security of Ukraine
    • Table 5. Correlation coefficients of domestic loans to the private sector by banks (% of GDP) with researched indicators
    • Table 1A. Indicators of the state’s financial and economic security (performance indicators) to be used for the construction of the correlation and regression model
    • Table 2A. Indicators of foreign banking that may influence the state’s financial and economic security (factor indicators/exposure) to be used for the construction of the correlation and regression model
    • Table 3A. Matrix of pair correlations for factor indicators of the model
    • Table 4A. The nature and value of influence of foreign banking indicators (factors) on the indicators of financial and economic security of Ukraine (indicators under study)
    • Table 5A. The statistics of the model of researching the change of financial and economic security indicators under the influence of foreign banking indicators