Vassiliy Sherstyuk

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
The purpose of this study is to assess the relationship between tax burden, income, and the level of poverty in rural areas of Kazakhstan. Panel regional data are analyzed for the period 2010–2024, obtained from the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan and the State Revenue Committee. The methodological framework includes regression analysis and econometric modeling. Five models were constructed showing that the growth of the gross regional product has a positive association with the incomes of the rural population (β = 0.927, p < 0.001). On the contrary, the relationship with the tax burden is statistically insignificant (β = 0.001). The study showed that before the 2018 tax reform, the fictitious indicator was β = –0.014; after that, β = 0.251, indicating a structural shift in household incomes of about 25–29%. The regional resource-based model shows that in non-oil regions, the tax burden is positive (β = 0.014), whereas in oil regions, it is statistically significant but negative (–0.021). The results suggest that higher GRP levels are not statistically associated with corresponding improvements in rural income indicators and poverty rates. In these cases, it is necessary to undertake comprehensive actions to improve the social well-being of the rural population, including strengthening the institutional environment, promoting regional economic development, and ensuring equitable distribution of benefits from economic growth.