Syden Mishi

The relationship between profit and bank market structure continues to raise questions amongst both policy makers and researchers. While some evidence supports a positive relationship between market structure, competition and profitability, other evidence seems to support the fact that profitability and related market share result from efficiency. Moreover, extant literature on South Africa is conflicting and seems to contradict anecdotal evidence. While some studies point to a competitive environment despite concentration, others suggest that concentration in the banking sector is harmful. Prosecution of banks for uncompetitive behavior also casts doubt on the conclusion that the South African banking sector is competitive. This paper examines the relationship between structure and conduct in the South African banking sector. Using the Berger (1995) discriminating tests, the effect of industry concentration, market share and efficiency on three measures of profitability is estimated on a panel of 11 South African banks for data between 1994 and 2016. The results show that concentration affects conduct. The profit-structure relationship is dominantly explained by the structure conduct hypothesis and partly by the efficient scale hypothesis. These results suggest that policy which discourages concentration and promotes competition in the banking sector is socially beneficial.

The study examined the determinants of bank stability within the South African banking sector. By controlling for individual bank characteristics and market characteristics, the study determined possible determinants of solvency, a proxy for bank stability, measured by z-score within the South African financial sector. The South African financial sector is highly concentrated but with a significantly large number of banks, the greater portion being foreign owned banks. The business models of some of the financial intermediaries differ from the big four and therefore the influence of the type of business model is of great interest in this study, as it highlights a unique feature of the South African financial sector. The study’s investigation used panel data estimation techniques and found that among the specific bank characteristics, lending activity and capitalization do significantly affect solvency of banks and at sector level concentration was significant. The crisis dummy also revealed that the presence of a financial crisis heightened insolvency. The results have implications for financial institutions and therefore are of interest to regulators, bank management and researchers. Policy prescription in the form of Prompt Corrective Action framework is made to ensure proactive reaction to trends likely to cause instability.