Olena Iarmosh

Type of the article: Research Article

The full-scale Russian invasion has profoundly transformed Ukraine’s regional labour markets, making the capacity of these markets to withstand shocks, adapt, and recover highly relevant to the design of evidence-based employment policy. The article assesses the resilience of Ukraine’s regional labour markets under conditions of full-scale war and identifies patterns of their territorial differentiation. To this end, an original composite methodology combining quantitative and qualitative approaches was developed. The study examines the processes by which regional labour market resilience is formed and sustained under crisis conditions. The methodology combines quantitative and qualitative approaches: a system of 11 adjusted indicators is constructed (business activity, entrepreneurship, investment, employment, performance of employment services, and institutional support), with weighting coefficients determined through an expert survey of 24 specialists; normalised partial indices and an integrated composite resilience index are calculated, followed by a cluster analysis of the regions. Calculating the composite index for 25 regions based on 2023 data reveals significant territorial differentiation: the highest resilience is demonstrated by Rivne (0.748), Ivano-Frankivsk (0.708), and Poltava (0.697) regions, while the lowest is recorded in Luhansk (0.114), Kherson (0.285), and Zaporizhzhia (0.381) regions. The cluster analysis identifies four groups of regions and shows that proximity to the front line is not the sole determinant of labour market stability: institutional capacity and governance quality play an equally important role. Thus, the findings substantiate differentiated directions for regional employment policy and can be used by government authorities, employers, and international partners in shaping a post-war labour market recovery strategy for Ukraine.