Fidan Safarova

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
This study analyzes the causal relationships between economic growth, inflation, exports, and domestic credit to the private sector in Turkey using annual data covering the period from 1990 to 2024, obtained from the World Bank and the Turkish Statistical Institute. The empirical strategy is based on a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) modeling framework combined with the Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality approach, with the long-run interactions among the variables further examined through Johansen cointegration analysis. This integrated methodology allows for a comprehensive assessment of both short-run dynamics and long-term equilibrium relationships in the Turkish macro-financial system. The empirical findings from the Toda–Yamamoto causality tests reveal statistically significant causal effects running from exports of goods and services, economic growth, and inflation to domestic credit to the private sector. Specifically, exports (EXGS), GDP growth (GDPG), and inflation (INF) each exert a meaningful influence on domestic private sector credit (DOCR), indicating that historical movements in these macroeconomic variables possess substantial explanatory and predictive power for credit dynamics. These results underscore the importance of real economic activity, external trade performance, and price stability in shaping the evolution of financial intermediation in Turkey. From a policy perspective, the results imply that maintaining export competitiveness, promoting stable and inclusive economic growth, and ensuring low and predictable inflation are essential for improving private sector credit access, reinforcing financial sector performance, and fostering sustainable economic development and macroeconomic stability in Turkey.

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
This study aims to examine the relationship between public education expenditure, student enrollment, and crime among educated individuals in Azerbaijan over the period 1998–2023. Using annual time-series data, the analysis investigates whether education-related public investment and educational participation are associated with changes in criminal activity within the educated population. The empirical findings reveal the existence of a stable long-run relationship among the variables, indicating that education expenditure, student enrollment, and crime dynamics evolve in an interconnected manner over time. The results further demonstrate that both public education expenditure (Wald = 11.356, p = 0.003) and student enrollment (Wald = 27.576, p < 0.001) possess statistically significant predictive power in explaining variations in crime among educated individuals. In particular, the stronger statistical effect observed for student enrollment suggests that broader participation in the education system may play a particularly important role in shaping long-term crime patterns. Overall, the findings indicate that education policy extends beyond its conventional function of human capital development and may contribute to broader social outcomes, including the reduction of crime-related vulnerabilities. By providing empirical evidence from Azerbaijan as a transition economy, this study contributes to the growing literature examining the wider societal implications of education policy and its role in promoting long-term social stability and sustainable development.