Felix N. Ezeji

Inflation is an important macroeconomic issue that has continued to dominate discussions at major economic fora over time. Governments all over the world are concerned about its rising trend because of its pervasive effect on economic performance. One intriguing fact about inflation is that it is both the cause and effect of certain policy actions of government. Several studies have been conducted on the effect of inflation on economic activities in developing and developed nations, but studies on its cause, particularly in developing nations, are scant. This paper aims at identifying major factors that cause inflation in Nigeria. Based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) estimation method, the study shows empirical support for significant impact of external debt, exchange rate, fiscal deficits, money supply and economic growth on inflation. It further shows previous period or lagged inflation rate as a significant determinant of current inflation rate. However, the study produced no evidence of significant longrun impact of interest rate on the rate of inflation in Nigeria. The study recommends economic reforms that target foreign exchange inflow through increased export trade, as well as a paradigm shift away from deficit budgeting. There is also a need for infrastructural and institutional reforms to eliminate or, at least, minimize the impact of structural inequity on output prices.

The implementation of the 2004–2005 bank capital reform in Nigeria, introduced to deepen the financial capacity of the banking system, has led to a major restructuring of the banking sector. The reform required banks to increase their equity capital by about 1150 per cent (from two billion to twenty-five billion naira) within 18 months. Due to compliance challenges, the reform formed just twenty-five out of eighty-nine banks that previously existed. More than seventy-five per cent of the banks emerged through mergers and acquisitions. However, despite the massive increase in assets and deposit growth, episodes of bank distress have remained a recurring irritant in the country’s financial system. This study compares bank performance in the pre- and post-reform periods to determine the usefulness or efficacy of the capital reform in boosting bank performance based on panel analysis of data from five banks. The study covered the period 1996–2016. The generalized method of moments was used to evaluate the parameters of the model. The result of the random effects model shows a weak positive effect of total assets and deposit growth on bank performance in the pre-reform period. However, the post-reform assessment reveals that while profitability is significantly low in large-sized banks, it is higher in smaller banks. Given the above evidence, the study asserts that profit performance of banks is substantially linked to restructuring of the sector.