Anton Nesterenko

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
As economic systems become more complex and external environmental instability increases, managers’ characteristics play a more vital role in project management effectiveness. This study aims to evaluate the impact of the leadership potential of innovation-oriented managers on project management effectiveness in the regions of Ukraine. Leadership potential is operationalized as an integral psychometric construct comprising emotional intelligence, leadership behavior, and innovation orientation, enabling a comprehensive assessment of managerial competencies. The study draws on a survey of 210 managers from 68 commercial companies in the Poltava region of Ukraine, providing micro-level evidence on the relationship between leadership potential and project management effectiveness. Additionally, a meso-level comparative analysis of seven Ukrainian regions (Kharkiv, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Lviv, Poltava, Odesa, and Vinnytsia) was conducted using aggregated statistical indicators reflecting investment, innovation, and project activity. The results demonstrate a statistically significant positive relationship between managers’ leadership potential and project management effectiveness (r = 0.68, p < 0.01). The findings indicate that leadership potential is statistically associated with higher project effectiveness under relatively stable conditions; however, this relationship weakens significantly under structural shocks and external constraints. This confirms that the managerial effect of leadership potential is context-dependent and mediated by regional economic and institutional conditions. After the full-scale russian aggression in 2022, a significant weakening of the relationship between leadership potential and project management effectiveness is observed, indicating the dominance of exogenous factors (e.g., security, infrastructure, and institutions) over managers’ managerial characteristics.

Acknowledgments
The paper is prepared within the scientific research project “Drivers and barriers to human capital transformation for a circular and green economy” (No. 0126U001080).