Data analysis and forecasting of tourism development in Ukraine

Current local and national demographic trends have deepened the existing and formed new global demographic processes that have received a new historical reasoning that requires deep scientific research taking into account the influence of the multifactorial global dimension of the modern society development.
The purpose of the article is to study the development of global demographic processes and to define the causes of their occurrence, manifestations, implications and prospects for implementation in the first half of the 21st century.
The authors have identified and characterized four global demographic processes, namely population growth, migration, increase of tourism, and change in population structure. It is projected that in the 30’s of the 21st century, the number and growth rates of the world population will reach the objective growth and these dynamics over the next two decades will begin to change in the direction of reducing the growth rates, which will lead to gradual stabilization, and eventually reduce the size of the world population. By the middle of the 21st century, one can observe the preservation of the growth rates of international and domestic migration, the growth of international migration flows from the South to the North and from the East to the West, the strengthening of new economically developed centers of gravity (Canada, Australia and New Zealand), the increase in migration of rural population to cities, as well as urbanization and activation of the metropolises development. The share of international tourists in comparison with the world population will be constantly increasing, and the annual growth rate of the number of international tourists will significantly depend on the world economy and may vary at the several percent level. Permanent change will occur in the age, religious-cultural and socio-economic structure of the population.

Saudi Arabia is well known in the world for the holy places Makkah and Madinah. Hajjis and visitors come to perform hajj and Umrah every year in Makkah and Madinah from all around the world. Hajj and Umrah visits play a vital role in the inbound tourism of Saudi Arabia. The tourism revenue of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is increasing absolutely but losing its contribution to the GDP proportionately. So, this paper tries to find out the economic activities of all components of tourism sector which are responsible for the negative trend. It also explains the relationships and variability of tourism revenues and expenditures with GDP and offers suggestions to enhance revenue of tourism sector. This study is based upon secondary data obtained from the website of SAMA (Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority) and General Authority for Statistics of Saudi Arabia. In tourism sector of Saudi Arabia, the increasing trend of expenditures of some economic activities is more than its revenue. The increasing trend of expenditures comparatively its revenues lowering contribution of tourism towards GDP. To improve the level of tourism revenue, government has to provide world class facilities and develop new tourist spots and allow the visitors to visit such places according to the Shariah and Kingdom rules. Government has to focus on developing passenger rail transport and other means of transport to connect all the tourist spots to provide easy conveyance, and on improving and developing tourism sector by helping the government and private organizations that are engaged directly or indirectly in providing services to the domestic and inbound tourists to assure more contribution to GDP.

Globally, tourism has been identified as a means of poverty reduction and development, and as a means of encouragement of females, minorities and small businesses to better engage in the mainstream of economic life. This paper examines whether the international and governmental financial support, grated by international financial institutions, is effectively achieving these aims in Latin America and the Caribbean. A series of indices are established in the paper that assess the extent to which such funding includes non-corporate enterprise while also considering the volume and nature of such funding. It is concluded that the goals of inclusiveness are not being met.