“Data analysis and forecasting of tourism development in Ukraine”

The article contains a thorough study of tourist flows in Ukraine during the last 18 years. The tendencies of the development of international tourism during the last 20 years and their influence on the development of tourism in Ukraine have been ex-plored. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of inbound tourist flows. The nega- tive dynamics of tourist arrivals in Ukraine led to the construction of a forecast model for the development of this component of tourism activity with the aim of an objective assessment of future tourist arrivals and the adoption of effective management decisions on improving the situation of tourism in Ukraine. Tourist destinations today are rigorously competing for consumer interest in tourism products. In view of this, tourist facilities operating in the tourist market place particular emphasis on the elements of tourism marketing (product, price, distribution, advertising, human capital, actual data, processes). Modern forecasting systems and methods have been used to build a forecast of tourism development in Ukraine and, in particular, arrivals of foreign tourists to Ukraine. An analytical forecasting model was built by the system of CurveExpert in the form of a polynomial function, analytical forecasting models were built by the system of com- puter algebra Maple in the form of piecewise linear and piecewise polynomial functions. Numerical prediction models in the MathCAD system using different types of spline-interpolation and predictive functions have been constructed. A comparative analysis of the results of forecasting in different systems was carried out. The results of the comparative analysis give confidence in the development of inbound tourism in Ukraine.


INTRODUCTION
Tourism is one of the most important forms of international cooperation, which provides many countries with major budget revenues and employment growth. Successful tourism business needs a brand that focuses on target markets, successfully generates potential customers and maintains their quality, satisfies the customers' requirements, which is extremely important for Ukraine. The formation and development of the tourist market in Ukraine in recent years has been taking place in a context of a sharp decline in the consumption of tourist services, the sharpening of inflationary processes with a corresponding rise in prices, limited demand and a reduction in real cash incomes. The search tools for solving these problems require radical economic transformations and application of innovative means of forecasting by tools of the mathematical and computer modeling for the management of activity of tourist enterprises.
The aim of the article is to research the development of tourism in Ukraine on the basis of analysis of tourist flows data, marketing, building of different types of the forecasting models of development and their comparative analysis.

LITERATURE REVIEW
The tourism sector still maintains its ability to be an industry, which is intensively attracted by high developed countries and countries with emerging markets. The most important reason for this is that it is one of the quickly developing sectors in the world. This has highlighted the contribution of the tourism sector to the econom of the countries. With the impact of the World Tourism Organization's prediction (UNWTO, 2018) that the world tourism income will be 2 trillion dollars in 2020, each country has caused their own tourism supply potential to engage in the struggle to get a share of this or to enlarge the share they received.
The tourism industry can act as the locomotive of the country's socio-economic development, as a major "foreign exchange earner" (Ranade, 1998), as a big creator of employment through its labor-demanding nature, including employment for women and minority groups (Cukier, 2002;Gorg, 2000), as a reliable environment for infrastructure development and poverty reduction, as well as a real promoter of multiculturalism and tolerance (Dixit, 1997;Bahuguna, 2005). According to Bramwell and Lane, the greatest founders of these concepts in the tourism industry (Bramwell & Lane, 2012;Bramwell & Lane, 1993), tourism development is seen as a solution that can create positive changes through the ideas of sustainable development. A lot of scientists in their works tried to build models of tourists flows ( In general, the multiplier effect of tourism on the economy is substantial. As a multidisciplinary activity involving several branches and applying different competencies, tourist bene-fits extend to a much wider segment of society than other sectors of the economy (Telce & Schroenn, 2006). Researches related in this field highlighted its possible implications for promoting growth, revenues for the government and job creation (Lea, 1988;Sinclair, 1998). This economic connection is pointing to growth in the leadership of tourism. Therefore, tourism is a significant impetus for economic growth (Sinclair & Stabler, 2002;Samimi et al., 2011).
Today, tourism is viewed as an important outward-oriented growth sector (Brohman, 1996). Tourism expenditures, which are an alternative export type, contribute positively to the balance of payments due to foreign currency revenues and becomes a crucial source of income for a country's national economy with the development of tourism (Kim, Chen, & Jang, 2006;Kaletnik et al., 2011). This income from the tourism sector is used for the import of goods and services required for other sectors for economic growth and development purposes (McKinnon, 1964). The tourism sector, which is regarded as a "regional development strategy, contributes to development of underdeveloped regions, restructuring of the economy and ultimately economic growth as a whole" (Tosun & Timothy, 2001;Baidal, 2004). The tourism sector is often used as a means to progress economic development with the effect of employment and income enhancers and to revive marginalized economies (Liu & Wall, 2006).
Consequently, many countries with developing and tourism potential want to take advantage of this sector in the long term with their tourism development plans and develop their economic development with the help of this sector (Pearce, 2000;Toivonen, 2002). Therefore, many of the developing countries have big problems at the point of providing effectiveness in the international tourism market, many of these countries consider tourism as an attractive development and development option (Liu & Wall, 2006). The examination of literature did not provide significant reviews and discussions relevant to this subject. The analysis of the latest publications on these issues makes it possible to conclude that there are positive trends and the presence of factors hindering the further development of tourism enterprises.

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
The theoretical and methodological background is the fundamental principles of the systematic approach, the methods of scientific abstraction, analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, the dialectical method of knowledge of economic phenomena, the corresponding provisions of economic theory in the study of economic processes, scientific works of domestic and foreign erudites, which cover the fundamental positions, the main problems of tourism enterprises.

THE TENDENCIES OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTERNATIONAL TOURISM
According to the data presented in the Statistical Bulletin (Tourism Highlights,  Starting from the post-crisis period of 2010, the growth rate of international arrivals exceeds the average level, and each year this indicator increased by 4% or more. According to the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), in 2017, the tourism segment provided about 10% of the world's GDP, every tenth of the world's employment, 1.6 trillion US dollars of foreign exchange earnings, 7% of world exports, 30% of world trade in services (Tourism Highlights, 2018).
In the world of tourism, practically all countries are involved now. As tourism is a highly profitable business, a rigid competition continues between countries on the international tourist market. In this struggle, the states that have significant tourist and recreational resources and can offer various quality tourist services at competitive prices for the tourists are the winners. This is possible only in the conditions of the developed tourism industry, which has the support and attention of the state. Table 3 shows the ranking of countries in terms of tourist arrivals.

RESEARCH OF TOURIST ARRIVALS TO UKRAINE
Data from Table 3 show that the tourism industry of Ukraine is an integral part of the world tourism process. But, unfortunately, Ukraine today is considerably inferior to the world trends in the development of the tourist market .
In the ranking of countries in terms of international tourist arrivals, she descended from the 12th place in 2010 to 27th place in 2017 (Tourism Highlights, 2018). The hypothesis about incomplete use of the potential of tourism as a powerful component of the national economy is confirmed by the decline of the development of the tourism industry due to the military-political and economic crisis in Ukraine.
The dynamics of tourist flows in recent years is significant stochastic process ( Figure 1). Military actions in the eastern part of the country, the annexation of the territory of the Crimea, de-valuation of the national currency had a negative impact on the state of tourism in Ukraine. Since 2014, there has been a negative trend towards reducing the number of travelers (Table 4). Negative dynamics of tourist arrivals in Ukraine leads to building a forecast model for the development of this component of tourism activity. This will provide an objective assessment for the future tourist arrivals and make effective management decisions on improving the state of tourism in Ukraine based on the forecast.  To obtain a more objective assessment of the build of the forecast of tourist arrivals in Ukraine, we will apply different systems and methods of forecasting.

BUILDING OF THE FORECAST OF TOURIST ARRIVALS BY CURVEEXPERT
Curve Expert system automatically searches for the best model for forecasting (Figure 2).
Based on the data in Table 4, the optimum modeling result gives the Gaussian Model with a correlation coefficient r = 0.908 ( Figure 3).

BUILDING OF THE FORECAST OF TOURIST ARRIVALS BY MAPLE
The use of spline interpolation in the system of computer algebra Maple (Thompson, 2016) gives an opportunity to obtain an analytical description of the predictive model in the form of a piecewise linear or piecewise polynomial function (Figure 4).
A detailed information about creating the matrices of data in Maple, functions description of linear, quadratic and cubic splines is given in Appendix (see Figures A1, A2, A3 and A4 in Appendix A).

BUILDING THE FORECAST OF TOURIST ARRIVALS BY MATHCAD
The MathCAD system (Maxfield, 2009) has two powerful forecast tools, the forecast function based on interpolation of different types of splines ( Figure  5), and the predict function that provides predictions based on some set of last points in the statistical series ( Figure 6). A detailed information about creating the matrices of data in MathCAD is given in Appendix (see Figure A5 in Appendix A).
The comparative analysis of forecasting results by the different systems is presented in Table 5.
The results of the comparative analysis indicate that almost all methods of forecasting provide a positive outlook for the development of inbound tourism in Ukraine. Forecasting in the MathCAD system based on the predict function shows the significant dependence of the forecasting results on the number of points involved in the building of the forecast. If the statistical basis for forecasting covers the period of the political and economic crisis in Ukraine in 2014-2015, then the simulation results give a slightly pessimistic forecast for the future. However, it is evident that the trend towards increasing inflow tourism flows over the last three years has a positive effect on the results of forecasting, which gives confidence in the development of inbound tourism in Ukraine.

CONCLUSION
Despite all the hardships, tourism in Ukraine can and should become a sphere of realization of market mechanisms, a source of replenishment of state and local budgets, a means of public and full-time recreation and rehabilitation, as well as acquaintance with the historical and cultural heritage and the present state of our people and the state. Entrance tourism is a priority tourism destination for Ukraine and a significant factor in replenishing the currency revenues of the state treasury and creating additional jobs.
Based on research results and our opinion, for the effective development of tourism in Ukraine, it is necessary to take the following measures: • develop a methodology for integrated assessment of tourist resources, their classification and categorization, an effective marketing and management system; • to provide state support to perspective applied research in the tourism industry; • to improve the activities of Ukrainian tourist offices abroad; • to study and implement progressive international experience of public administration and regulation of tourism industry; • develop appropriate methodological recommendations for the further reformation of the training system of specialists-managers of the respective direction; • to improve the competitiveness of the national tourism product through the improvement of the pricing management process at tourist enterprises.
The implementation of these recommendations will increase the efficiency of using the country's tourism potential, increase the competitiveness of tourism enterprises, increase budget revenues, reduce unemployment in the regions, and attract real investment in tourism. Figure A1. Creating the matrices of data in Maple